The Reform UK Party’s sudden proposal to scrap "permanent residency" has sent shockwaves through the BNO Hong Kong community. They were just a few years away from securing this status, which promised welfare benefits and freedom of movement. Now, what they thought was the light at the end of the tunnel suddenly looks like a tunnel with no end—a truly miserable prospect.
A commentator with “yellow” background tried to downplay the situation, suggesting Nigel Farage is just grandstanding and that the Reform UK Party's chances of taking power are slim. But even he had to concede that some Hong Kong people in the UK are deeply anxious, with some even mulling a "third migration." Looking back at a survey from a few months ago, it's clear anxiety among these migrants was already common, with some even hitting the "severe" red line. This latest "Farage scare" is only going to pour fuel on the fire.
Fugitive Chung Kim-wah: Panicked Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are now considering a 'third migration'.
A Fugitive's Take
Chung Kim-wah, a fugitive wanted in Hong Kong and now living in the UK, weighed in on the Reform UK Party's "immigration policy" yesterday. He claimed Farage is simply posturing to grab headlines and rally support, and he doesn't see the party taking power anytime soon, telling Hong Kong people in the UK not to worry too much. While his words were clearly meant to soothe the community's nerves and prevent panic, he couldn't deny the reality on the ground. He admitted that among his own friends in the UK, some are deeply worried and feel lost about what the future holds.
He revealed that shortly after Farage's press conference, he received three messages from people expressing grave concerns. One person, who had been in the UK for less than a year, had previously moved to Taiwan with his family. They had tried for investment immigration but, after several years, were still denied permanent residency in Taiwan, prompting a second migration to the UK on a BNO visa. This individual confessed that the Reform UK Party's proposal has them genuinely worried this time. They asked Chung Kim-wah if they should start making new plans, even floating the idea of a third migration.
Nowhere Left To Go?
This particular migrant in the UK also lamented feeling like they have "nowhere left to go" and feared being treated as a second-class citizen no matter where they end up. In his article, Chung admitted that it was only after this call that he realized just how on edge Hong Kong migrants in the UK have become.
Despite Chung Kim-wah's repeated attempts to tell people not to overthink it, the panic among these Hong Kong people is completely understandable, and the Reform UK Party's chances of gaining power shouldn't be underestimated. Even Chung himself noted in his article that during recent local council elections in parts of England, the Reform UK Party saw a significant increase in its seats, gaining control of 11 councils. Some of his Hong Kong friends are now so convinced the party could take power soon that they're considering a move from England to Scotland.
The Panic is Real
To say he is just now realizing how on edge Hong Kong people in the UK have become is to be far behind the curve. Months ago, when the Conservative Party released its "immigration white paper" suggesting a 10-year residency requirement for permanent residency, a collective "panic attack" had already swept through the community. A petition demanding a parliamentary debate was launched and quickly amassed over 100,000 signatures, laying bare their state of alarm.
I looked at a survey from last July that interviewed over 600 Hong Kong people who had moved to the UK. It revealed their average "anxiety score" was 13.4, higher than the normal level of 12, indicating a widespread state of "anxiety and unease." Some individuals even scored as high as 18.3, dangerously close to the red line for "severe anxiety."
Anxiety Red Line: Surveys show Farage's proposals are pushing Hong Kong migrants' unease to 'severe' levels.
An Escalating Crisis
On top of that, the UK government recently commissioned the research agency Verian to interview a group of Hong Kong people aged 35 to 44. The findings showed that some are worried about the "5+1" pathway being extended to "10+1" and other potential shifts in government policy.
These surveys make it crystal clear: many Hong Kong people in the UK were already struggling with unease. After the scare from the "10+1" proposal and now this new shock from Farage, their anxiety is bound to skyrocket. A friend living in the UK told me that the psychological counseling services at local community centers are completely overwhelmed and bustling with people—a telling sign of the times.
My friends and I believe that Hong Kong people who are so deeply worried about their future should seriously consider another option: returning to Hong Kong to begin a new chapter in their lives.
What Say You?
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
After a 156-day trial, the verdict in Jimmy Lai Chee-ying’s case for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces has finally landed. All three charges were proven. The judge said the prosecution witnesses were clear and convincing—honest, reliable, and hard to shake. On top of that, a mountain of messages between Lai and others backed them up too, making the case about as airtight as it gets.
One line in the judgment really jumped off the page: the court said Lai carried deep hatred toward China’s ruling regime, and that his one and only goal was the downfall of the central authorities. Once that’s on the table, the bigger—and frankly colder—picture comes into focus: teaming up with the United States to chase a “China collapse.” Re-reading the witnesses’ evidence, and Lai’s US activity before and after the 2019 turmoil, the pattern is hard to miss—he’d long been laying tracks for a secret “Shina-implosion” agenda —using “Shina”, a largely archaic and now offensive term for China. That lined up neatly with the “all-out war” posture against China being pushed by US hawkish politicians at the time.
Pence spoke. Lai radicalised. “Shina-implosion” became the plan.
Accomplice witness—and “Fight for freedom, Stand with Hong Kong” leader—Chan Tsz-wah told the court that in early 2020, Lai met the figure nicknamed “Lam Chau Bar” (Liu Zudi) and others at Lai’s villa in Taipei’s Yangmingshan.
Lai’s pitch was blunt: if foreign countries hit China with embargo-style sanctions, and if different “blocs” could be unified and amplified with grassroots force, then what he called a “Shina-implosion” could be triggered: meaning China would collapse from within. And if that collapse came, Lai said, that would be the perfect opening for the United States to transplant democracy into China
Lai didn’t just hope “Shina-implosion” was possible—he seemed convinced after meetings with US top politicians that it was coming, because he believed the US was about to go into full confrontation with China, and that the timing was right to topple China’s regime.
Six months before that Taipei meeting, in July 2019, Lai—helped by his aide Mark Simon and certain behind-the-scenes political operators—met separately with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Adviser John Bolton. All three were hawks, right down to the bone. Lai claimed it was about “Hong Kong’s autonomous status,” but it’s far more likely they were discussing a US “new Cold War” against China, and Hong Kong’s role inside that strategy.
When Washington “flipped the table”
Pompeo and Bolton had already floated the idea that the Chinese Communist Party would end up like the Soviet Communist Party—heading toward eventual disintegration. In that story, the US “wins” the ideological war, then gets to transplant American-style democracy into China. That was exactly Lai’s long-held “ideal,” and once he felt those heavyweight allies were onside, his confidence in making “Shina-implosion” happen only grew.
He weaponised his media to shake Hong Kong—US anti-China hawks cheered it on.
And this didn’t start in 2019. A year earlier (October 2018) Pence delivered a speech that Lai saw as nothing less than a “declaration of war” on China, and it lit a fire under him. Cooperating witness and former Apple Daily editorial writer Yeung Ching-kee said that after reading Pence’s speech, Lai told him the US had “flipped the table” on China. Lai believed Washington would rally Japan and other Western countries to confront China, and would seize on China’s weakness to “kick it while it’s down.” In Lai’s mind, this wasn’t just a trade war—it was an “all-out war.” Yeung said that from that moment, Lai became even more radical.
So once Lai realised Pence, Pompeo, and Bolton were lining up a “new Cold War” against China, he then caught another “piece of good news”: President Donald Trump formally signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on November 27. That’s why, in Taipei, he spoke so confidently to Chan Tsz-wah and Liu Zudi about the secret “Shina-implosion” plan.
According to the judgment, once Lai learned Trump had formally signed the Act, he told Martin Lee Chu-ming and Mark Simon in a WhatsApp group that Trump clearly understood Hong Kong was a powerful bargaining chip in US–China trade talks—and that Hong Kong would be able to draw more resources for the struggle. Then in June 2020, Lai wrote in The New York Times that the time had come to impose sanctions and punishment on China, and that this might be the best moment for the US to “manufacture a storm” and bring about the collapse of China’s regime.
After the NSL: same goal, quieter methods
Because Lai believed the US would win this “China–US war,” and that China’s regime would then crumble, he didn’t change course even after the National Security Law took effect—just as the judge put it. Instead, he simply moved in a more covert direction.
The judgment said Lai’s only intention was to seek the downfall of the central authorities—even if the final price was sacrificing the interests of people in the Chinese Mainland and in the HKSAR. That verdict nails the damage behind Lai’s offences. And the fact he ultimately couldn’t outrun the law is, plainly speaking, a blessing for Hong Kong.
Lai Ting-yiu
