The “Shina-Implosion” Playbook Behind Jimmy Lai

After a 156-day trial, the verdict in Jimmy Lai Chee-ying’s case for conspiracy to collude with foreign forces has finally landed. All three charges were proven. The judge said the prosecution witnesses were clear and convincing—honest, reliable, and hard to shake. On top of that, a mountain of messages between Lai and others backed them up too, making the case about as airtight as it gets.

One line in the judgment really jumped off the page: the court said Lai carried deep hatred toward China’s ruling regime, and that his one and only goal was the downfall of the central authorities. Once that’s on the table, the bigger—and frankly colder—picture comes into focus: teaming up with the United States to chase a “China collapse.” Re-reading the witnesses’ evidence, and Lai’s US activity before and after the 2019 turmoil, the pattern is hard to miss—he’d long been laying tracks for a secret “Shina-implosion” agenda —using “Shina”, a largely archaic and now offensive term for China. That lined up neatly with the “all-out war” posture against China being pushed by US hawkish politicians at the time.

Pence spoke. Lai radicalised. “Shina-implosion” became the plan.

Accomplice witness—and “Fight for freedom, Stand with Hong Kong” leader—Chan Tsz-wah told the court that in early 2020, Lai met the figure nicknamed “Lam Chau Bar” (Liu Zudi) and others at Lai’s villa in Taipei’s Yangmingshan.

Lai’s pitch was blunt: if foreign countries hit China with embargo-style sanctions, and if different “blocs” could be unified and amplified with grassroots force, then what he called a “Shina-implosion” could be triggered: meaning China would collapse from within. And if that collapse came, Lai said, that would be the perfect opening for the United States to transplant democracy into China

Lai didn’t just hope “Shina-implosion” was possible—he seemed convinced after meetings with US top politicians that it was coming, because he believed the US was about to go into full confrontation with China, and that the timing was right to topple China’s regime.

Six months before that Taipei meeting, in July 2019, Lai—helped by his aide Mark Simon and certain behind-the-scenes political operators—met separately with Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Adviser John Bolton. All three were hawks, right down to the bone. Lai claimed it was about “Hong Kong’s autonomous status,” but it’s far more likely they were discussing a US “new Cold War” against China, and Hong Kong’s role inside that strategy.

When Washington “flipped the table”

Pompeo and Bolton had already floated the idea that the Chinese Communist Party would end up like the Soviet Communist Party—heading toward eventual disintegration. In that story, the US “wins” the ideological war, then gets to transplant American-style democracy into China. That was exactly Lai’s long-held “ideal,” and once he felt those heavyweight allies were onside, his confidence in making “Shina-implosion” happen only grew.

He weaponised his media to shake Hong Kong—US anti-China hawks cheered it on.

And this didn’t start in 2019. A year earlier (October 2018) Pence delivered a speech that Lai saw as nothing less than a “declaration of war” on China, and it lit a fire under him. Cooperating witness and former Apple Daily editorial writer Yeung Ching-kee said that after reading Pence’s speech, Lai told him the US had “flipped the table” on China. Lai believed Washington would rally Japan and other Western countries to confront China, and would seize on China’s weakness to “kick it while it’s down.” In Lai’s mind, this wasn’t just a trade war—it was an “all-out war.” Yeung said that from that moment, Lai became even more radical.

So once Lai realised Pence, Pompeo, and Bolton were lining up a “new Cold War” against China, he then caught another “piece of good news”: President Donald Trump formally signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act on November 27. That’s why, in Taipei, he spoke so confidently to Chan Tsz-wah and Liu Zudi about the secret “Shina-implosion” plan.

According to the judgment, once Lai learned Trump had formally signed the Act, he told Martin Lee Chu-ming and Mark Simon in a WhatsApp group that Trump clearly understood Hong Kong was a powerful bargaining chip in US–China trade talks—and that Hong Kong would be able to draw more resources for the struggle. Then in June 2020, Lai wrote in The New York Times that the time had come to impose sanctions and punishment on China, and that this might be the best moment for the US to “manufacture a storm” and bring about the collapse of China’s regime.

After the NSL: same goal, quieter methods

Because Lai believed the US would win this “China–US war,” and that China’s regime would then crumble, he didn’t change course even after the National Security Law took effect—just as the judge put it. Instead, he simply moved in a more covert direction.

The judgment said Lai’s only intention was to seek the downfall of the central authorities—even if the final price was sacrificing the interests of people in the Chinese Mainland and in the HKSAR. That verdict nails the damage behind Lai’s offences. And the fact he ultimately couldn’t outrun the law is, plainly speaking, a blessing for Hong Kong.

Lai Ting-yiu

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One month into war with Iran, an estimated 1,750 Iranians have died—many of them women and children. People with any conscience, including America's allies, hope Trump will stop and spare the people, but he remains characteristically reckless, with ground forces standing ready. One order in a moment of madness could kill far more. 

Pope Leo XIV is deeply appalled by the continued killing and has finally spoken out forcefully: those who initiate wars have blood on their hands and should not justify war in God's name. Though the Pope did not name names, Trump is clearly one of them—he recently gathered Christian leaders at the White House to pray for his 'Christian crusade,' putting Jesus on the war chariot. No wonder the compassionate Pope is outraged.

Pope Leo blasts “war‑makers” with blood on their hands, warning that Jesus will not hear their prayers—an unmistakable rebuke of Trump and Hegseth.

More shocking still: Defense Secretary Hegseth was revealed to have made inflammatory remarks at a Pentagon prayer meeting, saying 'we must use overwhelming violence against those who do not deserve mercy.' The brutality is terrifying. The Pope Leo XIV's remarks appear well-aimed, calling the world to recognize the evil face of these so-called Christian zealots.

At the Pentagon, War Secretary Hegseth was exposed urging “overwhelming violence” against those he deems unworthy of mercy—a chilling call to brutality.

Since the US and Israel began war against Iran, the Pope has spoken out several times calling for a ceasefire and urging those who started the war to lay down their weapons. But this speech was the harshest yet, showing his anger has reached a critical point. 

On Palm Sunday before Easter, he addressed the faithful in St. Peter's Square, saying those who initiate wars have blood on their hands, God will not listen to their prayers, and they should not justify war in God's name.

Trump and Hegseth's Religious War Framing

The Pope's remarks target two recent events. First, shortly after launching the war, Trump assembled conservative evangelical pastors and leaders at the White House. They stood behind him, hands on his shoulders, praying for divine guidance to victory. The scene carried an eerie religious intensity never before witnessed at the White House.

Second, War Secretary Hegseth, author of American Crusade: Our Fight to Stay Free, drew parallels between the conflict with Iran and the Crusades—when Christian armies attacked Islamic nations a thousand years ago. He institutionalized this framing through monthly prayer meetings at the Pentagon, promoting extreme Christian ideology to subordinates.

Pope's Theological Stance Against War

The Pope watched these two troubling phenomena unfold with deep concern and anger. Framing this conflict as a "religious war" doesn't just contradict Christian teaching—it's dangerous, inviting catastrophe. He was unequivocal: "This is our God: Jesus, King of Peace, who rejects war, whom no one can use to justify war." He then invoked Scripture itself, quoting Jesus: "Even though you make many prayers, I will not listen: Your hands are full of blood."

The Pope directly condemned priests who pray for "war makers," insisting that Christian leaders bearing responsibility for war must repent. His message was clear: supporting a conflict that causes mass suffering is wrong, period—both theologically and morally.

Escalating Conflict and Religious Fanaticism

The Pope had voiced his grave concerns right from the start. Shortly after the conflict erupted, he warned that unchecked escalation would trigger catastrophe, urging all sides to "stop the spiral of violence before it becomes an irreparable abyss." His prescience proved accurate—yet the leaders of both nations, each pursuing their own agenda, have only intensified the flames. They ignore his pleas.

Military leadership has matched political fervor with religious conviction. The War Secretary overseeing operations, Pete Hegseth, has embraced what amounts to religious fanaticism, recently revealed to have sanctified violence during an internal Pentagon prayer meeting. According to the Associated Press, he appealed for ‘overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.’ He was referring to Iran and other Islamic adversaries. To complete this "sacred mission," he suggested, killing is justified.

Call for Unity Against War and Evil

Whether Trump or Hegseth, both rationalize and sanctify mass-killing warfare—a truly terrifying prospect. The Pope’s firm stand today against this "heresy" has greatly heartened those standing on the side of justice.

As long as all anti-war forces unite and continue to grow stronger, we believe we can ultimately overcome evil with righteousness and force the 'warmongers' to back down.