UK's Rich Fleeing as Hong Kong's Doors Open

There's a famous line in a Chinese novel Fortress Besieged: "Those inside the city want to escape, and those outside want to rush in." It’s a perfect metaphor for today’s Britain. While new immigrants like Hong Kong BNO holders have been "rushing in" over recent years, the UK's wealthy residents and top talent are now staging a massive "escape," with departure numbers hitting record highs.

Facing this exodus, the government is flailing wildly for a cure—planning heavy tax hikes in this Wednesday's Budget that will take a knife to the wealthy and high earners, a move bound to accelerate the flight.

The biggest winner in this crisis is Dubai, which has absorbed a huge number of wealthy migrants leaving the UK. Hong Kong has been keen on snatching talent and wealth in recent years—it certainly has the conditions to share in the spoils and should act fast to not lose out. Furthermore, the return of some wealthier Hong Kong migrants from the UK is also expected to increase, which will stimulate the property market.

Britain Hemorrhages Wealth: The country's rich and famous are staging a "great escape" in record numbers, while wealthier Hong Kong people are poised to head back.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her second budget this Wednesday, and she's coming for the wallets of the wealthy. To plug a gaping fiscal hole, tax hikes are inevitable — but Labour needs its working-class base intact, so ordinary earners are off-limits. That leaves one target: the rich. They've known they're on the chopping board since Labour took power last year, and they've been voting with their feet ever since. Better to leave now than wait for the axe to fall.

The Taxman Cometh: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to unleash a budget tax assault on the wealthy this Wednesday, a move guaranteed to swell the "escape tide."

The numbers from the UK Office for National Statistics back this up: 257,000 British nationals emigrated last year — a fresh high and three times the projected 77,000. Most were wealthy and high-income earners. But the bleed started earlier. Between 2021 and the end of last year, 992,000 people left the UK, with the pace accelerating sharply in 2024.

The Celebrity Exodus

The escapees include household names and financial heavyweights. Former Manchester United star Rio Ferdinand relocated to Dubai. Tech entrepreneur Herman Narula moved to the UAE. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Richard Gnodde decamped to Milan, Italy. The common thread? Heavy UK taxes. When the government began taxing citizens' overseas income in April this year, the wealthy decided they'd had enough of draconian taxes and scattered to friendlier jurisdictions.

This is just the beginning. The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025 projects 16,500 wealthy individuals will leave the UK this year — topping the global exodus list for the first time a European country has held that dubious honor in a decade. Where are they going? The UAE captured the crown with a net inflow of 9,800, followed by the United States, Italy, and Switzerland. Singapore ranked sixth, but its magnetism is fading. Hong Kong is gaining ground fast and has real potential to close the gap with Singapore.

Labour's Tax Raid Will Backfire

Labour's strategy of slicing into the wealthy and high income groups to reduce the deficit will only speed up the outflow of talent and capital. UBS forecasts that by 2028, the UK's millionaire population will shrink by 17%. Britain is experiencing "bad money driving out good" — and once this talent and wealth leaves, it's gone for good. No return ticket.

Beyond the rich, Britain's great migration also includes young professionals — many headed to Australia, Dubai, and elsewhere for higher salaries, lower taxes, and cheaper housing. The UK's General Medical Council estimates 4,000 doctors fled last year alone, and the numbers keep climbing.

Friends living in the UK report that this exodus will also include some wealthier, high-income Hong Kong BNO holders. Three forces are driving their return: First, the UK government is aggressively raising taxes on the upper-middle class and extracting money by any means necessary — pushing this group to consider returning to low-tax Hong Kong. Second, once they obtain permanent residence in the future, they can move freely in and out, allowing them to return to Hong Kong for higher incomes. Third, some single high earners are simply skipping the permanent residence application altogether, returning to Hong Kong to earn higher income and seek better opportunities.

Next year will be peak season for Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK to apply for permanent residence — numbers approaching 100,000. Friends in the UK note that some of their children will be entering university and will no longer need parental supervision in the UK, so after obtaining permanent residence status, they're highly likely to return to Hong Kong to work or do business. At that point, they'll need to buy or rent properties, which will stimulate the property market.

The wealthy and top talent fleeing the UK represent a massive opportunity — and Hong Kong absolutely has what it takes to compete with Dubai, Singapore, and others for a piece of the action. The Hong Kong government has been pushing hard to attract talent and wealth in recent years. It's time to act fast and not miss out.

Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

London just dropped a classic good news, bad news bombshell on Hong Kong BNO holders.

The headline grabber? The path to permanent residency remains a five-year trek—the so-called "5+1" deal is safe. But here is the kicker: to actually cross the finish line, applicants must now survive a gauntlet of "extra spicy" new conditions. We are talking tougher English tests, strict income floors, and proof of continuous tax payments.

Think of it as a mouthful of sugar followed by a shot of hot chili. The anxiety on the ground is palpable. The South China Morning Post cites a survey warning that nearly 30 percent of these migrants do not meet the new bar. Unless London blinks, thousands will be screened out at the doorstep, leaving them empty-handed after five wasted years. Agitated Hong Kong people in UK are scrambling with petitions, but make no mistake: for the British government, utility is the only metric that matters.

Survey Warning: 30% of Hong Kong BNO holders fall short of London's new "permanent residence" rules and face being screened out at the finish line.

Here is the bait-and-switch: getting the visa was easy, but staying is going to cost you. Previously, income checks were nonexistent. Now, the rules have tightened: you need a fixed job, a tax record, and an annual haul of at least £12,570 (HK$128,000) for three to five years. That might sound low, but for many Hong Kong BNO holders, it is a high wall to climb. Not everyone is punching the clock in a full-time gig.

The SCMP-cited survey breaks it down. Of the 690 interviewed: 19 percent are housewives, 8 percent are retirees, and 3 percent are students. That is 30 percent of the total population right there. No job, no income, no tax record. If the Home Office sticks to the letter of the law, this entire group is going to fail the assessment cold.

Even the working class is standing on shaky ground. The data shows that only 42 percent of respondents have full-time jobs, while another 20 percent are scraping by with part-time work. Do the math: stable, salaried Hong Kong BNO holders are not the majority. Many are hustling in "casual work," where income fluctuates wildly and often falls short of the new government mandates.

Speak to anyone on the ground, and they will tell you the housewife trap is real. Families move over with young kids, find they can’t hire help, and suddenly the mother is housebound. It is a forced choice. Even if they pick up part-time shifts to help make ends meet, those meager earnings inevitably miss the strict income targets London has set.

The Wealth Illusion

Then there are the cash-rich, income-poor migrants. These are the folks who sold their Hong Kong properties at the peak, sitting on millions of dollars to fund a quiet life in the UK. Some are retired; others just don’t need to work. They are slowly "pinching" their savings to get by. But under these new rules, their wealth is irrelevant. No employment income means no tax record. And no tax record means they are not getting past the gatekeepers.

Smart professionals are also about to get caught in their own loop. I know of Hong Kong BNO holders who aren't unemployed—they are just working "on the sly," taking remote gigs from Hong Kong to dodge UK taxes. It used to be a clever way to save a buck. Now, it is a liability. Without a UK tax footprint or local employment record, they have technically earned nothing in the eyes of the Home Office. When application time comes, they are going to face big trouble.

The education gap is another ticking time bomb. The survey reveals that 16 percent of respondents only have a secondary education. Let’s be realistic: hitting the B2 English level—roughly A-Level standard—is a pipe dream for this demographic. This single hurdle is going to cull a significant herd of applicants before they even get started.

The Language Barrier: With 16% of surveyed migrants holding only secondary education, the "B2 barrier" for English proficiency is set to trigger a wave of failures.

Panic is setting in as families realize they might be kicked out at the last minute. Distressed and confused, Hong Kong BNO holders are mobilizing. A petition demanding the government lower the bar—keeping the easier B1 English requirement and scrapping the income test—has already gathered 28,000 signatures. They are even planning a protest march for December 6.

Utility Over Humanity

London, sensing the rising heat, offered a vague olive branch yesterday. Officials claim the consultation is not yet finalized and teased a potential transitional arrangement. But do not hold your breath—nobody bothered to explain what that transition actually looks like.

Let’s call this what it is: habitual duplicity. When the chips are down, the British government puts utility first. A sharp analysis in Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao hit the nail on the head: by piling on these conditions, London is downgrading the BNO route from a special humanitarian channel to a high-threshold, ordinary immigration path. It has morphed into a policy demanding economic tribute, not a sanctuary.

The writing is on the wall. Don't expect them to lower the bar for permanent residence. Smart Hong Kong people should know better than to have high expectations.

Lai Ting-yiu