There's a famous line in a Chinese novel Fortress Besieged: "Those inside the city want to escape, and those outside want to rush in." It’s a perfect metaphor for today’s Britain. While new immigrants like Hong Kong BNO holders have been "rushing in" over recent years, the UK's wealthy residents and top talent are now staging a massive "escape," with departure numbers hitting record highs.
Facing this exodus, the government is flailing wildly for a cure—planning heavy tax hikes in this Wednesday's Budget that will take a knife to the wealthy and high earners, a move bound to accelerate the flight.
The biggest winner in this crisis is Dubai, which has absorbed a huge number of wealthy migrants leaving the UK. Hong Kong has been keen on snatching talent and wealth in recent years—it certainly has the conditions to share in the spoils and should act fast to not lose out. Furthermore, the return of some wealthier Hong Kong migrants from the UK is also expected to increase, which will stimulate the property market.
Britain Hemorrhages Wealth: The country's rich and famous are staging a "great escape" in record numbers, while wealthier Hong Kong people are poised to head back.
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her second budget this Wednesday, and she's coming for the wallets of the wealthy. To plug a gaping fiscal hole, tax hikes are inevitable — but Labour needs its working-class base intact, so ordinary earners are off-limits. That leaves one target: the rich. They've known they're on the chopping board since Labour took power last year, and they've been voting with their feet ever since. Better to leave now than wait for the axe to fall.
The Taxman Cometh: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to unleash a budget tax assault on the wealthy this Wednesday, a move guaranteed to swell the "escape tide."
The numbers from the UK Office for National Statistics back this up: 257,000 British nationals emigrated last year — a fresh high and three times the projected 77,000. Most were wealthy and high-income earners. But the bleed started earlier. Between 2021 and the end of last year, 992,000 people left the UK, with the pace accelerating sharply in 2024.
The Celebrity Exodus
The escapees include household names and financial heavyweights. Former Manchester United star Rio Ferdinand relocated to Dubai. Tech entrepreneur Herman Narula moved to the UAE. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Richard Gnodde decamped to Milan, Italy. The common thread? Heavy UK taxes. When the government began taxing citizens' overseas income in April this year, the wealthy decided they'd had enough of draconian taxes and scattered to friendlier jurisdictions.
This is just the beginning. The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025 projects 16,500 wealthy individuals will leave the UK this year — topping the global exodus list for the first time a European country has held that dubious honor in a decade. Where are they going? The UAE captured the crown with a net inflow of 9,800, followed by the United States, Italy, and Switzerland. Singapore ranked sixth, but its magnetism is fading. Hong Kong is gaining ground fast and has real potential to close the gap with Singapore.
Labour's Tax Raid Will Backfire
Labour's strategy of slicing into the wealthy and high income groups to reduce the deficit will only speed up the outflow of talent and capital. UBS forecasts that by 2028, the UK's millionaire population will shrink by 17%. Britain is experiencing "bad money driving out good" — and once this talent and wealth leaves, it's gone for good. No return ticket.
Beyond the rich, Britain's great migration also includes young professionals — many headed to Australia, Dubai, and elsewhere for higher salaries, lower taxes, and cheaper housing. The UK's General Medical Council estimates 4,000 doctors fled last year alone, and the numbers keep climbing.
Friends living in the UK report that this exodus will also include some wealthier, high-income Hong Kong BNO holders. Three forces are driving their return: First, the UK government is aggressively raising taxes on the upper-middle class and extracting money by any means necessary — pushing this group to consider returning to low-tax Hong Kong. Second, once they obtain permanent residence in the future, they can move freely in and out, allowing them to return to Hong Kong for higher incomes. Third, some single high earners are simply skipping the permanent residence application altogether, returning to Hong Kong to earn higher income and seek better opportunities.
Next year will be peak season for Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK to apply for permanent residence — numbers approaching 100,000. Friends in the UK note that some of their children will be entering university and will no longer need parental supervision in the UK, so after obtaining permanent residence status, they're highly likely to return to Hong Kong to work or do business. At that point, they'll need to buy or rent properties, which will stimulate the property market.
The wealthy and top talent fleeing the UK represent a massive opportunity — and Hong Kong absolutely has what it takes to compete with Dubai, Singapore, and others for a piece of the action. The Hong Kong government has been pushing hard to attract talent and wealth in recent years. It's time to act fast and not miss out.
Lai Ting-yiu
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The most consequential national security trial yet to come is also the one with the most unanswered questions — and at the centre of it is a man who almost made it out.
Monday (Feb 23) was "Renri" (人日) — the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, meant to be a day of celebration for all people. But for the 12 defendants in the "35+ Subversion Case," there was nothing to celebrate. The Court of Appeal dismissed all their appeals against both conviction and sentencing in full. Unless they push it all the way to the Court of Final Appeal, this case is done. That brings two of the three major national security cases to a close — the other being the Jimmy Lai trial. What remains is the Joshua Wong case, expected to go to trial around mid-year. Like Lai's, it reaches into the highest levels of American politics, and it will almost certainly expose a trove of behind-the-scenes dealings that will shake Hong Kong to its core. The trial is close enough that the details don't need spelling out here. But one mystery absolutely does: Wong was once Washington's darling — so why did he never make it out, while his co-conspirator Nathan Law did? An investigative report by American journalists cracked open the story.
Wong's trial is the last big national security case standing — and the most explosive one yet. How did he never make it out?
Wong's role in the Occupy Central movement and the 2019 unrest needs no introduction. In June last year, while already serving a prison term at Stanley Prison on sedition charges, he was arrested again and charged under the Hong Kong National Security Law with conspiracy to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security. His second pre-trial review at the Magistrates' Court came on 21 November last year, with the next hearing set for 6 March; the full trial at the High Court is expected to begin around mid-year. This case carries weight every bit as significant as the Jimmy Lai trial — the spotlight it commands will be enormous.
The Charges Are Grave
The prosecution alleges that between July and November 2020, Wong — together with Nathan Law and others yet to be identified — conspired in Hong Kong to solicit foreign governments and institutions to impose sanctions against the Hong Kong SAR and the People's Republic of China, and to seriously obstruct the government in enacting and enforcing its laws and policies. The charges carry a potential sentence of life imprisonment. What exactly Wong and Law did, and which foreign officials were involved, the prosecution will lay out in full when the trial begins.
The public has long asked some uncomfortable questions. Did Joshua Wong ever consider fleeing before or after the National Security Law came into force at the end of June 2020? If so, why did it never happen? Did the US government try to help him get out? An investigative report by two American journalists answered part of the puzzle — and sources familiar with the matter, when contacted by Hong Kong media, broadly confirmed what it said.
Wong Begged Washington for Help
The night before the National Security Law took effect, Wong reached out through a senator's adviser to appeal directly to President Trump for help. At the same time, he sent an email to then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, explicitly asking to be helped to "travel to the United States to seek political asylum, by whatever means necessary". That email tells you everything. Wong knew exactly how dangerous his situation had become — and he was betting his future on American goodwill.
Around the same time, Wong arranged to meet two officials from the US Consulate General in Hong Kong at St. John's Building, directly across the street from the consulate. He made clear he wanted to walk in and seek refuge. He was turned away on the spot. When Pompeo saw the email, he consulted with his staff and arrived at the same conclusion: letting Wong through the consulate doors was simply not an option — Washington feared Beijing would retaliate by forcing the US consulate in Hong Kong to close entirely.
State Department officials went further, exploring a covert plan to smuggle Wong out of Hong Kong by sea — routing him through Taiwan or the Philippines before eventually reaching the United States. That option was killed too, on the grounds that any such attempt would very likely be intercepted by Chinese authorities, triggering a diplomatic crisis. When the accounting was done, American interests won out — and Joshua Wong was coldly abandoned.
By that point, Nathan Law had already made it out. Seizing Pompeo's visit to London, Law met the Secretary of State privately and raised the question of rescuing Wong one more time — and was once again turned away without sympathy. In September 2020, Wong was arrested on sedition charges and imprisoned two months later. Any remaining window for escape had sealed shut.
Law Moved Fast — and Made It
Nathan Law is named as a co-conspirator in the charges against Wong — meaning that if arrested, they face the same jeopardy. But Law proved far more calculating than Wong. Shortly before the National Security Law took effect, he quietly slipped away, eventually confirming his presence in the United Kingdom on 13 July 2020. He even staged a moment of wistful sentiment, declaring: "With this parting, I do not yet know when I shall return... May glory come soon!" — words that, in the circumstances, could not have sounded more hollow.
Same charges, same case — but Law ran, and Wong didn't. One man made it out clean. The other is still paying the price.
Joshua Wong — sharp-witted all his life — took one step too many in trusting the Americans, and that delay cost him everything. The US government, in the name of "national interest," discarded him without hesitation. As his trial approaches, the reality is this: placing any further faith in American support would be the last illusion he can afford.
Lai Ting-yiu
