The most consequential national security trial yet to come is also the one with the most unanswered questions — and at the centre of it is a man who almost made it out.
Monday (Feb 23) was "Renri" (人日) — the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, meant to be a day of celebration for all people. But for the 12 defendants in the "35+ Subversion Case," there was nothing to celebrate. The Court of Appeal dismissed all their appeals against both conviction and sentencing in full. Unless they push it all the way to the Court of Final Appeal, this case is done. That brings two of the three major national security cases to a close — the other being the Jimmy Lai trial. What remains is the Joshua Wong case, expected to go to trial around mid-year. Like Lai's, it reaches into the highest levels of American politics, and it will almost certainly expose a trove of behind-the-scenes dealings that will shake Hong Kong to its core. The trial is close enough that the details don't need spelling out here. But one mystery absolutely does: Wong was once Washington's darling — so why did he never make it out, while his co-conspirator Nathan Law did? An investigative report by American journalists cracked open the story.
Wong's trial is the last big national security case standing — and the most explosive one yet. How did he never make it out?
Wong's role in the Occupy Central movement and the 2019 unrest needs no introduction. In June last year, while already serving a prison term at Stanley Prison on sedition charges, he was arrested again and charged under the Hong Kong National Security Law with conspiracy to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security. His second pre-trial review at the Magistrates' Court came on 21 November last year, with the next hearing set for 6 March; the full trial at the High Court is expected to begin around mid-year. This case carries weight every bit as significant as the Jimmy Lai trial — the spotlight it commands will be enormous.
The Charges Are Grave
The prosecution alleges that between July and November 2020, Wong — together with Nathan Law and others yet to be identified — conspired in Hong Kong to solicit foreign governments and institutions to impose sanctions against the Hong Kong SAR and the People's Republic of China, and to seriously obstruct the government in enacting and enforcing its laws and policies. The charges carry a potential sentence of life imprisonment. What exactly Wong and Law did, and which foreign officials were involved, the prosecution will lay out in full when the trial begins.
The public has long asked some uncomfortable questions. Did Joshua Wong ever consider fleeing before or after the National Security Law came into force at the end of June 2020? If so, why did it never happen? Did the US government try to help him get out? An investigative report by two American journalists answered part of the puzzle — and sources familiar with the matter, when contacted by Hong Kong media, broadly confirmed what it said.
Wong Begged Washington for Help
The night before the National Security Law took effect, Wong reached out through a senator's adviser to appeal directly to President Trump for help. At the same time, he sent an email to then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, explicitly asking to be helped to "travel to the United States to seek political asylum, by whatever means necessary". That email tells you everything. Wong knew exactly how dangerous his situation had become — and he was betting his future on American goodwill.
Around the same time, Wong arranged to meet two officials from the US Consulate General in Hong Kong at St. John's Building, directly across the street from the consulate. He made clear he wanted to walk in and seek refuge. He was turned away on the spot. When Pompeo saw the email, he consulted with his staff and arrived at the same conclusion: letting Wong through the consulate doors was simply not an option — Washington feared Beijing would retaliate by forcing the US consulate in Hong Kong to close entirely.
State Department officials went further, exploring a covert plan to smuggle Wong out of Hong Kong by sea — routing him through Taiwan or the Philippines before eventually reaching the United States. That option was killed too, on the grounds that any such attempt would very likely be intercepted by Chinese authorities, triggering a diplomatic crisis. When the accounting was done, American interests won out — and Joshua Wong was coldly abandoned.
By that point, Nathan Law had already made it out. Seizing Pompeo's visit to London, Law met the Secretary of State privately and raised the question of rescuing Wong one more time — and was once again turned away without sympathy. In September 2020, Wong was arrested on sedition charges and imprisoned two months later. Any remaining window for escape had sealed shut.
Law Moved Fast — and Made It
Nathan Law is named as a co-conspirator in the charges against Wong — meaning that if arrested, they face the same jeopardy. But Law proved far more calculating than Wong. Shortly before the National Security Law took effect, he quietly slipped away, eventually confirming his presence in the United Kingdom on 13 July 2020. He even staged a moment of wistful sentiment, declaring: "With this parting, I do not yet know when I shall return... May glory come soon!" — words that, in the circumstances, could not have sounded more hollow.
Same charges, same case — but Law ran, and Wong didn't. One man made it out clean. The other is still paying the price.
Joshua Wong — sharp-witted all his life — took one step too many in trusting the Americans, and that delay cost him everything. The US government, in the name of "national interest," discarded him without hesitation. As his trial approaches, the reality is this: placing any further faith in American support would be the last illusion he can afford.
Lai Ting-yiu
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The Year of the Horse is off to a gallop – and it may be carrying Hong Kong people home.
Local wisdom holds that Bingwu (丙午), the most fire-charged year in the 60-year Chinese calendar cycle, is uniquely auspicious for Hong Kong, a city said to thrive on fire energy. Fire means celebration and confidence: tourists arrive in droves, and those who left are drawn back. Astrology, of course, deserves only a pinch of salt. But the objective data is telling exactly the same story.
Over 20,000 Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are eyeing a return. Some have already slipped back and restarted in Hong Kong — and the real number could run higher.
A new survey finds that if the UK government goes ahead with tightening permanent residency requirements, 12.8% of Hong Kong BNO holders surveyed would return to Hong Kong – that is roughly 21,000 people. BBC and local media have already spoken with returnees who have quietly slipped back from Britain to Hong Kong, and the real count is climbing well past 20,000. Across the Pacific, the picture mirrors itself: many Hong Kong people who boarded the so-called "lifeboat" to Canada are watching their permanent residency applications drag on indefinitely, stranded between two shores – and more are cutting their losses and heading home.
The UK government has been tightening the screws on new migrants seeking Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). The new requirements include raising English language standards and imposing income thresholds – a package the Home Office is branding "earned settlement." A public consultation on whether Hong Kong BNO visa holders will be exempted from these new requirements has just wrapped up, and the verdict is imminent. For Hong Kong people already living in the UK, the suspense is grinding – sleep is hard to come by, and contingency plans are quietly being drawn up.
Four Hong Kong community organisations surveyed 1,725 Hong Kong BNO holders and asked one direct question: if ILR is no longer certain, what next? The results are sobering. A full 27.6% said they would leave the UK. Of that group, 12.8% would return to Hong Kong, while 14.8% would try to relocate to another country. With more than 170,000 Hong Kong BNO holders now resident in the UK, that 12.8% translates to roughly 21,000 people making the journey home.
Seeking to land in another country? Around 25,000 people have that idea – but the welcome mat is not out anywhere. Canada, like most destinations, has pulled back on immigration. Finding a new country to call home is genuinely difficult, and many of those 25,000 may ultimately discover they have run out of options. Hong Kong becomes the only door still open. Twenty thousand returnees is therefore the conservative case; the real number will almost certainly be far higher.
No Way Out but Home
Make no mistake: the deeper you look, the starker the numbers become. A UK Member of Parliament surveyed over 6,000 Hong Kong BNO holders and found that 43% of families cannot meet the new requirements. The road ahead is blocked, and those who remain will find daily life increasingly difficult. The survey bears that out: only 22% of respondents said they would "definitely stay in the UK." The others have already decided to find a way out. They have not moved yet simply because the moment has not arrived.
Some Hong Kong people stopped waiting long ago. BBC recently sat down with one returnee who spent three years in the UK and now drives a taxi in Hong Kong. He speaks candidly about the crushing depression that shadowed his time in Britain – a darkness so severe he contemplated suicide, as though he had fallen into a black abyss with no way out. He had planned to endure another three years to obtain British citizenship, caught in a relentless internal debate over staying or leaving. Then came the night he was violently attacked at the restaurant where he worked. The evidence was clear-cut. Police made no arrest even after a full year. That was the moment his faith in British rule of law and human rights gave out entirely. With no reason left to stay, he made his decision. "It was as if I had woken up from a dream – and I have found a whole new meaning of 'home.'"
Online media outlet Kinliu spoke with another returnee who arrived in the UK on a BNO visa at the end of 2024 and was back in Hong Kong just eight months later, now working in the IT sector. From the ground, the reasons for return are a perfect storm: economic pressure, a brutal job market, shifting policies, public safety concerns, and the relentless grind of adapting to life abroad. The cost of living is punishing. Income tax exceeds 30%, and even decent jobs paying £4,000 to £7,000 a month leave precious little once taxes, rent, and daily expenses are stripped out.
And getting hired in the first place is a battle of its own. This returnee sent out 100 applications across the IT sector over six months and received nothing. His decision to return had nothing to do with the ILR policy debate; it was the relentless weight of economic pressure that made the choice for him. Britain, for him, simply was not working.
A Job Market That Won't Budge
Employment conditions across the UK are deteriorating, and the numbers are unambiguous. The unemployment rate hit 5.2% in the fourth quarter of last year – the highest reading since January 2021 – as companies have sharply pulled back on hiring. For Hong Kong BNO holders already struggling to clear income thresholds, a contracting labor market is the final, brutal complication. More and more are arriving at the same conclusion: time to go home.
And it is not just Britain. Canada's Hong Kong reverse migration tide is accelerating, driven by a clear and deliberate policy choice: the Canadian government has intentionally slowed permanent residency processing to suppress overall immigration numbers. Hong Kong people who boarded that Canadian "lifeboat" are among the very first to feel the squeeze.
Canada’s “lifeboat” is stuck in limbo. With PR waits stretching out, more Hong Kong people are quitting the queue and heading home. Pictured: a Hong Kong immigrant advocacy group protests outside Canada’s immigration ministry.
The figures from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) are damning. As of end-October last year, the two streams of the Hong Kong Pathway had taken in 42,040 permanent residency applications – but only 13,520 had been processed, leaving a massive, growing backlog. Estimates now put outstanding applications at 55,000 by 2027, with wait times stretching to a decade. For Hong Kong people marooned on that lifeboat – caught between two worlds, watching their best years tick away – more and more are drawing the same conclusion: stop waiting, turn back, and start over in Hong Kong.
Years ago, Hong Kong people left in waves for Britain and Canada. Now the world has turned full circle. The Year of the Horse has brought a genuine reversal of the tide, and this "reverse migration wave" is proof that Hong Kong is far from finished – it remains a city full of life and possibility. For Hong Kong people worn down in a foreign land – the tired bird that at last finds its way home – that is, when all is said and done, something to welcome.
