Britain's BNO Trap: Five Years Later, Hong Kong Migrants Want Out

Last Saturday quietly marked five years since Britain launched its BNO "lifeboat" scheme. In 2021, over 90,000 Hong Kong people applied. Approvals hit 75,000—a talent hemorrhage that genuinely alarmed observers.

Then the tide turned. By the first half of last year, approvals had crashed to just 5,029. Nearly 170,000 Hong Kong BNO holders now live in the UK, but there's no celebration of this "anniversary." Only regret. Why? The British government abruptly raised permanent residency requirements last year, trapping migrants in an impossible bind.

Five years on, 170,000 Hong Kong people live in Britain under BNO—but many now call it "a complete scam."

BBC interviews with UK-based Hong Kong people tell a damning story. Some angrily call the BNO scheme "a complete scam." Others say they've "been played". A recent survey hammers the point home: nearly 40% plan to leave the UK. Among them, 12.8% are eyeing a return to Hong Kong.

Take Mr. Cheung, a BNO holder who arrived in Manchester with his family in March 2021, full of hope. Reality in a foreign land proved brutal. He took a warehouse job while his wife could only work part-time to care for their children. He thought five years of hardship would earn him permanent residence this year. Then the government moved the goalposts, setting income thresholds his wife couldn't possibly meet. Their migration path now hangs in uncertainty.

He told BBC reporters the UK government's new regulations differ drastically from initial promises. He feels deceived. The whole thing resembles a scam. "It's like they took me for a ride. I prepared for what the government initially required, but suddenly everything changed." 

Another Hong Kong migrant in Britain bluntly criticized how the new requirements upended their family's plans, crushing them with stress and leaving them helpless.

The Calculated Con

The BNO UK residence scheme does indeed resemble a confidence game. In June 2020, when Beijing implemented the Hong Kong National Security Law to quell unrest and restore order, Britain's then-Conservative government seized the chaos to "loot," brazenly violating the Sino-British Joint Declaration by allowing Hong Kong people to reside in the UK with BNO passports, siphoning off a large swath of Hong Kong's middle class. 

Two sinister calculations drove this move. 

First, waving the "Hong Kong protest" banner and launching a "lifeboat" to destabilize Hong Kong's morale, keeping tensions burning to pressure China and the Hong Kong SAR.  

Second, it served UK interests by siphoning Hong Kong's "talent" and "wealth." Britain had just left the EU, losing swaths of low-to-mid-level workers back to Europe. Hundreds of thousands of Hong Kong people conveniently plugged that gap—and brought a rolling stream of capital with them.

The UK government predicted at the time that many Hong Kong families would sell their properties and, combined with savings, bring millions of Hong Kong dollars to Britain—some even tens of millions. They'd buy property, pay for living expenses, cover education costs. But because they held only temporary residence, they couldn't access welfare benefits or local student tuition rates.

All gain, no cost. Former NPC Standing Committee member Rita Fan saw through the scheme early on, pegging Britain's potential windfall from Hong Kong people at £5 billion minimum. A tidy profit.

The Cooling Frenzy

In the BNO scheme's first year, over 90,000 people applied, with 75,000 approvals granted. If those numbers had remained steady, at least 380,000 Hong Kong people would have migrated to the UK over five years, taking far more than £5 billion with them. Fortunately, this frenzy began reversing in 2022, then sharply declining year by year. By 2024, approved applications fell to 19,000. By the first half of last year, only 5,029.

As the fever cooled dramatically, the number of Hong Kong people settled in the UK plateaued at 170,000 without further increase. They initially thought they could pursue "freedom" and be happier than in Hong Kong. But after living there for some time, disappointments came one after another—difficulty finding work, job downgrades, severe inflation, high energy costs, and more. Some increasingly question whether they made the wrong decision.  

Nevertheless, many gritted their teeth and hung on, counting down five years until they could apply for permanent residence—and then citizenship. But the UK government threw cold water on that plan. Last year, it announced new permanent residency rules: income thresholds and English proficiency at B2 level. This "double whammy" threatens to crush their migration dreams entirely.

An MP surveyed over 6,000 BNO Hong Kong holders, and results showed that 43% of families could not meet the requirements. In other words, they would only be able to maintain "temporary residence" status, living in a prolonged state of uncertainty, or simply seek other destinations—migrating to another country or returning to Hong Kong.

The Wake-Up Call

A recent survey conducted by several Hong Kong organizations in Britain reveals the depth of disillusionment. If the UK government maintains the "double whammy" requirements, among 1,725 respondents, nearly 40% intend to leave the UK, with 12.8% planning to return to Hong Kong. Half adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Those who answered "definitely staying in the UK" account for only 22%.

40% of BNO holders want out of the UK. Among them, 12% plan to return to Hong Kong.

After five years—from joy to sorrow—BNO Hong Kong holders finally feel they've been "conned" by the UK government, realizing the entire scheme was a scam. They might recall a popular phrase from the anti-extradition period: "You chose this path yourself—don't cry about it!"

At this point, returning might be a decent option. Hopefully, they can untangle their knots and seriously consider it.

What Say You?

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The US–Iran war keeps everyone guessing. American forces made a show of force by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, with combat seemingly on the verge of breaking out — yet Trump suddenly shifted to a softer tone, suggesting both sides could return to the negotiating table within days and that extending the two-week ceasefire wasn't necessary. A deal may be within reach. But given his habit of reversing course, everyone would do well to wait and see before celebrating. While the Iranian situation churns with uncertainty, Ukraine's plight has quietly been forgotten — President Zelensky left to wither alone.

In an interview with German broadcaster ZDF, Zelensky made no effort to hide his distress. Since America launched its campaign against Iran, he said, Washington has completely lost interest in Ukraine. Not only have negotiations ground to a halt, but arms and military equipment deliveries have abruptly stopped — precisely as Russian forces are pressing their offensive hard, leaving Ukraine in a dangerously exposed position.

Iran stole America's attention — and Ukraine paid the price. Talks frozen, arms cut off, Zelensky vents to German TV.

For the first time, Zelensky has come to understand that America, for all its self-image as a superpower, simply cannot stretch across multiple fronts without showing its limits. When the "big boss" proves unreliable, the "junior partner" is left to fend for itself.

Washington's Attention Has Shifted

Zelensky has had his fill of being sidelined, and the bitterness has finally spilled over. He told ZDF that after the Iran war began, America's focus visibly shifted. Special Envoy Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Kushner — the two men who had been mediating between Washington and Moscow — are now "constantly in talks with Iran," leaving no bandwidth for Ukraine. As a result, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have been frozen since late February, with no timeline in sight for their resumption.

What makes matters worse is that Trump, already overwhelmed by the Iran campaign, has quietly shelved the Russia-Ukraine file and stopped pressing Putin. Zelensky warned that without pressure, Russia has nothing to fear and will act with impunity. Putin has clearly read the situation. After a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire, Russian forces resumed their offensive immediately, seizing the opportunity to push for an advantage.

The Air Defence Crisis

The bigger crisis isn't the stalled talks — it's the weapons shortage. Zelensky pointed out that US military aid deliveries have slowed to a crawl, with air defence systems the most acute problem. Supplies of PAC-3 and PAC-2 interceptor missiles have shown serious gaps, and Ukraine could soon be left effectively "undefended," forced to watch helplessly as Russian missiles and drones fly in unchallenged.

Ukraine's air defences are running on empty. Interceptor missiles are critically short, and Russian strikes keep coming.

The reason Washington cannot deliver comes down to the Iran campaign itself. Since the war began, Iran has fired multiple missiles and drones at US military bases in Gulf states and at Israel. American forces have burned through enormous quantities of interceptor missiles countering these attacks, stockpiles are nearly depleted, and replenishment has no quick fix. The only option has been to rob Peter to pay Paul — redirecting air defence equipment destined for other countries to the Middle East, with Ukraine inevitably caught in the fallout.

Watching this crisis unfold, Zelensky is in a panic. Unless a US–Iran ceasefire materialises, there is little hope of American arms deliveries resuming. Ukraine has been forced to rely on itself, rushing to produce its own "FP-5 Flamingo" air defence missiles as a stopgap — though even that amounts to a distant rainstorm that cannot quench today's fire.

Adding insult to injury, Trump — in a bid to boost global oil supply and hold down rising prices — granted a 30-day sanctions waiver on Russia, allowing countries worldwide to purchase Russian oil and natural gas. The result: Russia pocketed an effortless €6 billion, turning the war into a windfall that helps fund its military campaign against Ukraine.

America Stepping Back From Europe

The "big boss" cooling on Zelensky is not entirely a matter of bandwidth. It also reflects a deliberate intent to distance America from Europe and leave the continent to clean up the Ukrainian mess on its own.

A recent development makes this attitude plain. According to Politico, War Secretary Hegseth will skip Wednesday's meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a forum that brings together defence ministers from over 50 pro-Ukraine nations — sending Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby in his place. Hegseth's snub signals clearly that the Trump administration no longer treats Ukraine as a priority.

Zelensky's predicament is a tragedy largely of his own making. He placed too much faith in the American "big boss," believing that with Washington firmly in his corner, he could go all-in against Russia. Today, he has finally learned the hard way: this "big boss" cannot manage multiple wars at once. Bogged down in Iran, America has no capacity left to care whether its "junior partner" sinks or swims.

Lai Ting-yiu