Global growth to drop to 2.6 pct in 2025: UN report

Global growth will slow to 2.6 percent in 2025, down from 2.9 percent in 2024, due to growing pressure from financial volatility and geopolitical uncertainty facing global trade and investment, the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a report released on Tuesday.

The UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report 2025 shows that shifts in financial markets affect global trade almost as strongly as real economic activity, influencing development prospects worldwide, said the UN trade body.

UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said the findings show how financial conditions increasingly determine the direction of global trade. "Trade is not just a chain of suppliers. It is also a chain of credit lines, payment systems, currency markets, and capital flows," she said.

The report notes that more than 90 percent of global trade relies on bank financing. Such deep dependence links trade with the global monetary and financial environment closely together.

It also highlights the growing financialization of commodity markets, particularly food market, where pricing increasingly reflects financial strategies rather than supply and demand.

The report said developing economies are forecast to grow by 4.3 percent in 2025, significantly faster than advanced economies.

However, factors such as higher financing costs, greater exposure to sudden shifts in capital flows, and rising climate-related financial risks limit the fiscal and investment space that developing economies need to sustain growth.

Global growth to drop to 2.6 pct in 2025: UN report

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Thursday presided over a State Council executive meeting that studied work on building a unified national market and reviewed and approved a plan for the development of a modern emergency response system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030).

Noting that building a unified national market is essential to advancing high-quality development, the meeting called for deepening institutional frameworks in areas such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition, social credit and market exit mechanisms.

The meeting also urged efforts to advance high-standard connectivity of market infrastructure to facilitate smooth economic circulation and effectively reduce logistics costs across society.

Emergency management is critical to protecting people's lives and property, the meeting said. It called for accelerating the development of a modern emergency response system, deepening reform and innovation in emergency management, and improving coordinated response mechanisms.

Efforts should be made to strengthen risk prevention at the source, enhance monitoring, forecasting and early warning, and accelerate a shift in governance toward proactive prevention, according to the meeting.

A draft revision of the Law on the People's Bank of China was also discussed and approved in principle at the meeting, which decided to submit the draft to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for deliberation.

Chinese premier chairs State Council executive meeting