The return of Roach and his poisoned tongue

The apply-named Stephen Roach wonders why no one agreed to his speech at the 6th US-China Hong Kong Forum at the Fullerton Hotel in Hong Kong last month. He had returned to his old habit of damning Hong Kong to an audience sympathetic to China and its southern pearl.

And he made no apologies for his statements in a follow-up on TVB’s Straight Talk program on Tuesday evening. In fact, he stood by his convictions that if China falls, Hong Kong falls. In other words, Hong Kong was too dependent on China.

Roach’s address “Beyond the Middleman: Hong Kong’s Influence in Superpower Rivalry” questioned whether Hong Kong’s unique features allow it to play an independent role in tempering geopolitical rifts, such as the one between the US and China. “Hong Kong’s capacity to serve as an honest broker in the Sino-American conflict has been compromised by China’s heavy hand,” he told his audience. So says a man living under the shadow of a national capital whose heavy hand is virtually controlling every major city in the US and crippling the national economy.

Roach was former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, based in Hong Kong and is currently a faculty member of Yale University.

He suggests that locals chafe at the suggestion that Hong Kong has become “another big Chinese city”. Of course it is, like New York in the US, Sydney in Australia and London in the UK. The difference being is that Hong Kong has a high degree of autonomy with a rule of law different from its motherland. It is the common law system practiced in all British Commonwealth countries plus the US. The mainland practices the civil law system used in all other places, such as Europe. Being “another big Chinese city” is a reality and something we are proud of. Only the separates’ movement differ in opinion.

Again, he has a dig at our judicial system and the resignation of a number of foreign judges sitting on the Court of Final Appeal, drawing on the critique of former British Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption who gathers his opinions from Hong Kong separate activists in the House of Lords.

According to the 2025 World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index, Hong Kong’s overall rule of law score ranks 24th out of 143 countries worldwide. Regionally, Hong Kong ranks 6th out of 15 countries in East Asia and the Pacific.

He argues that the Hong Kong of old has been replaced by a new version that more closely resembled a China-centric administrative region, with Deng Xiaoping’s model of “one country, two systems” morphing into “one country, one system.” He cited three reasons for believing this: First, Hong Kong’s economy, which is tightly correlated with the Chinese economy, remains weighed down by China’s protracted sluggishness. Second, the Chinese government’s post-2019 crackdown continues to weaken the rule of law, free speech, and press freedom in Hong Kong.

Third, Hong Kong is caught in the crossfire of the worsening Sino-American conflict, driving a wedge between the city, whose growth depends heavily on economic openness, and some of its trading partners.

Hong Kong’s economy is doing very well. In the latest World Population Review, Hong Kong was placed fourth in the world for net inflows of foreign investments. It is estimated that the total foreign investment in 2024 brought to Hong Kong's economy exceeds more than HK$67.7 billion, which also represents a record high and a nearly 10 per cent increase compared to 2023. These companies expected to create 6,864 job opportunities in Hong Kong during their first year of operation, an over 67 per cent increase compared to 2023.

There has been no weakening of the rule of law, in fact it has been strengthened by China’s national security laws and local safeguarding Hong Kong’s security laws. It’s worth noting that in the 2025 World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index, Hong Kong scored third place for law and order in 15 regional countries.

He talks of a shrinking expat talent pool yet Invest Hong Kong (InvestHK) announced a record-breaking year for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, assisting 539 overseas and Mainland companies to set up or expand their businesses in Hong Kong. This represents a 41 per cent increase compared to 2023, reflecting the strong appeal of Hong Kong as a leading business hub in the region.

He also fails to take into account the long term benefits the Northern Metropolis will bring to Hong Kong, including its magnet to draw in top class international talent from all parts of the globe. In fact, during his Straight Talk interview he appeared oblivious that such a massive plan for the future of Hong Kong enabling one third of the city’s land mass even existed.

He said for China’s stifling influence on Hong Kong’s governance, three major newspapers – Apple Daily, Stand News, and Citizen News – have closed since 2019, and other outlets such as Citizens’ Radio, FactWire, InMedia, Hong Kong Free Press, and Mad Dog Daily have either ceased operations or significantly scaled back.

The three papers which closed down did so voluntarily. Stand News and Citizen News could not be labelled “major newspapers” and Apply Daily run by Jimmy Lai currently facing trial for treason-related charges earned its wide circulation for sex and gossip coverage before turning to political commentary. There has been no scaling back on media coverage of Hong Kong. Hong Kong Free Press is a classic example of how the media can walk the red line without crossing it.

Roach is full of contradictions, swaying with the wind on public opinion. In February this year he heavily criticised Hong Kong for its deceiving appearances in a lengthy op-ed piece in the Financial Times. He later did a U-turn in a Bloomberg report in June praising Hong Kong’s successes. Now he says we’re in “for an inevitable correction.”

But he never listens. He follows the economic tractotomy all the way to 2030 and not what he has been told time and again: It’s the people who make Hong Kong tick. Hong Kong operates with one heartbeat to achieve one objective: Success!

Mark Pinkstone

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

Washington-based Foreign Policy magazine has been quick to point out that the Wang Fuk Court fire confirmed that the city’s “once prized freedom have vanished.”

How the magazine in it’s December 2 edition came to this conclusion is anyone’s guess, but it is indicative that anything untoward in Hong Kong is seen as politically motivated and a bad thing.

The fire, a great tragedy in Hong Kong that claimed 159 lives and many still missing, has left the city in mourning. And yet, the American press continues to use the opportunity to lambast Hong Kong as it struggles to come to terms with the devastating tragedy. It is a time for sympathies, not political gain… but that is the American way.

Foreign Policy editor James Palmer said local authorities responded to the fire by stifling civil society aid efforts and detaining critics. According to Palmer, since the 2019 protests and the imposition of “draconian” national security laws, no public institution in Hong Kong can operate freely. “Democratic mechanisms have been gutted, and political candidates must now adhere explicitly to Beijing’s line. The city’s response to the fire has confirmed Hong Kongers’ fears that the city’s political culture is now indistinguishable from that of the mainland,” he wrote.

Such comments are coming from a magazine that is popular in the halls of the US Congress and Senate. This and other foreign news coverage of the fire, prompted the Hong Kong SAR government to issue a statement that external forces were making false and defamatory remarks about the government’s post-disaster follow-up and investigations, as well as stirring up trouble and maliciously attacking the disaster relief efforts, as they “harbour malicious intent”. The Office for Safeguarding National Security also condemned a “small clique of external hostile forces” for “stirring up trouble and taking advantage of the chaos.”

One woman has been arrested over a fake donation website for the Tai Po fire victims and others have been detained for making false claims about the victims whom they claimed were “harbouring grave sins” and “got their retribution.” Others have been questioned by police for unbecoming behaviour towards the victims.

But Palmer writes Police dismantled grassroots fundraising efforts and donation sites and replaced them with state-approved efforts. So says somebody more than 13,000 kilometres away.

Hong Kong people responded in their usual fashion, with compassion and within a short period some HK$1 billion had been raised for the victims. Food, clothing and blankets were also donated by a caring public.

What Palmer means is again anybody’s guess. If he is referring to Beijing, he is sadly mistaken. All efforts relating to the fire were Hong Kong’s efforts. Beijing did offer to help and had fire tenders on the ready at the Shenzhen boundary.

Chinese President Xi Jingping offered his condolences on behalf of all the Chinese people indicating the care the central authorities in Beijing have towards Hong Kong.

The city’s response to the fire was remarkable as more than 2,300 firefighters and medical personnel were involved in the operation, which included one firefighter killed and 12 others injured.

It is writers like Palmer who give Hong Kong a bad name for the sole purpose of sensationalism and political sway. But, unfortunately, their publications are read as 丶being authoritative in the corridors of power and impact on Sino-Anglo relations, an never ending frustrating situation.