Global economic output is forecast to grow by 2.7 percent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 percent estimated for 2025 and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 percent, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, released Thursday by the United Nations.
The report, produced by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), indicated that the global economy has demonstrated resilience, but trade tensions, fiscal pressures and rising uncertainties are continuously affecting the medium- and long-term growth outlook.
At the launch of the report, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif said that supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, the global economy weathered the impact of sharp increases in U.S. tariffs in 2025.
"We project economic growth is to stabilize at 2.7 percent this year, compared to 2.8 percent in 2025. Last year, sharp tariff hikes disrupted global trade, yet the system proved more resilient than anticipated. But resilience should not be mistaken for strength," he said.
Hanif warned that subdued investment and shrinking fiscal space are weighing on economic activity, raising the prospect that the world economy could settle into a persistently slower growth path than in the pre-pandemic era.
According to the report, the economic growth in the United States is projected at around 2.0 percent in 2026, while that in the European Union is forecast at a slower 1.3 percent.
In Asia, growth is expected to remain stronger than in advanced economies, though slightly lower than in the previous years. China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6 percent, supported by targeted policy measures, according to the report.
"Considering the large size of China's economy, of course this will make a significant contribution to global growth, as it has been for many years now," said Ingo Pitterle, DESA's senior economist and officer-in-charge of the global economic monitoring branch.
The report noted that global trade proved resilient in 2025, expanding by a faster-than-expected 3.8 percent despite elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs. However, the momentum is expected to ease, with trade growth projected to slow to 2.2 percent in 2026.
At the same time, investment growth has remained subdued in most regions, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and tight fiscal conditions, according to the report.
The report also underscored that high prices are still eroding people's real incomes, despite the continued decline in global inflation levels. It projected that the headline inflation will slow further to 3.1 percent in 2026 after dropping from 4.0 percent in 2024 to an estimated 3.4 percent in 2025.
The United Nations called for stronger coordination across monetary, fiscal and industrial policies to stabilize prices while ensuring social well-being and long-term growth.
UN report forecasts global economic output to grow 2.7 pct in 2026
