A new reality is setting in for travelers worldwide: rising fees, fewer flight options and difficult decisions about whether a trip is worth the cost.
The culprit is volatile oil and jet fuel prices, which have spiked sharply since the war in the Middle East began and fighting near the narrow Strait of Hormuz created a chokepoint for global oil supplies.
“Volatility is the real story here,” said Shye Gilad, a former airline captain who now teaches at Georgetown University's business school. “Right now, the airlines are trying to make bets on what they think will happen in the future."
Airlines are responding cautiously, trimming schedules and adjusting prices in ways that experts say will ripple unevenly across the market but ultimately affect nearly every type of traveler.
Budget airlines and the price-conscious customers who rely on them are likely to feel the pinch first and most acutely, experts say, but even travelers in premium cabins won’t escape the higher prices and less convenient schedules.
Oil prices have swung wildly in recent weeks, briefly topping $119 a barrel at one point, and then plunging Wednesday below $95 after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East that briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. But the uncertainty behind those swings remains, especially after Iran closed the key artery for global oil shipments again in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
“When prices move quickly in both directions, it’s very hard for airlines to make predictions,” Gilad said. "That’s why there’s a lag between oil market moves and what passengers see in ticket prices.”
In other words, even when oil prices drop, travelers may not see relief right away. Airlines can take months, sometimes even up to a year, to adjust fares and fees as they wait for energy markets to stabilize.
“At this level of fuel, it’s hard to call anything temporary," Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told reporters this week after the Atlanta-based carrier raised its checked baggage fees.
Bastian said Wednesday as Delta kicked off the earnings season for U.S. airlines that the higher fuel prices are expected to add $2 billion in operating expenses in the second quarter alone.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in a recent memo to staff that if jet fuel prices stay elevated, it would mean an additional $11 billion in annual costs. That’s more than double what United earned in its most profitable year.
“For perspective,” he said, “in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5 billion.”
According to the International Air Transport Association, the average global jet fuel price rose to $209 per barrel last week, up from roughly $99 at the end of February when the war started.
Travelers from the U.S. to Hong Kong and New Delhi are paying the price.
U.S. carriers are embedding the higher operating costs into ticket prices and add-on fees. Delta, United, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue have all increased their checked baggage fees.
United has moved beyond add-ons to adjust pricing in its front cabins. The carrier said last week that it is bringing the “pay for what you want” approach already standard in economy to its premium cabins, turning perks like advanced seat selection and fully refundable tickets into optional extras.
Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific recently bumped fuel surcharges by roughly 34% across all routes, while Air India on Monday added up to $280 in fees to some flights. Emirates, Lufthansa and KLM have also adjusted fees or fares to keep pace with the price volatility.
For some travelers, it’s not just the cost — it’s the uncertainty that’s changing how they plan trips.
Bill Moorehouse, 50, a solutions director at a global provider of business and technology services, routinely travels for work every four to six weeks.
“When you have business trips and you have a carefully coordinated schedule, you don’t want unknowns and disruptions. And right now, it just feels like it’s more likely that things could go wrong and throw your trip off course,” the Cupertino, California, resident said.
For now, he’s staying closer to home.
“I think it’s a good time to do your spring cleaning and reconnect with friends locally.”
Airlines, meanwhile, are also adjusting how much they fly.
BNP Paribas estimates that global schedules for April have been cut roughly 5% compared with earlier plans. Most reductions are in the Middle East, the global investment bank said, though smaller cuts were also emerging in Europe, Asia and North America.
United Airlines is cutting about 5% of its planned flights in the near term, trimming less profitable routes and suspending some international service temporarily rather than “burning cash” on trips that can’t absorb the more expensive fuel costs. The airline's CEO said the cuts will target redeye flights and routes on historically slower travel days such as Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.
Delta is scrapping plans to add more flights and seats this summer, leaving about 3.5% fewer seats than originally planned.
These moves show why major carriers are better positioned to weather the spike in fuel prices than low-cost carriers, whose “no frills” model leaves them with less flexibility to absorb unexpected costs. Bigger airlines can lean on dynamic pricing, sell more seats at higher fares or swap in larger planes on certain routes, letting them cut flights without losing overall capacity.
“Leisure travelers and budget conscious travelers are going to absolutely feel it first because it may make the difference between going and not going,” Gilad said.
It's already made the difference for Anna Del Vecchio. The 36-year-old Seattle resident has made it an annual springtime tradition to visit family in Philadelphia before flying to Paris to see friends she met as a teenager during a volunteer internship.
Her credit card points typically cover the roundtrip flight, but ticket prices now hover around $1,400 — nearly double what she has paid in past years.
“It wasn’t even scratching the surface for the flight this time," she said, “so I decided to delay the trip.”
But if airfare tops $1,500, she might not be able to make a journey she hasn't missed in years.
“It might be the kind of thing where it just ends up being that I have to travel less.”
Travelers wait in a lines to get through security at LaGuardia Airport in New York, Monday, March 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Stained-glass windows cast colorful shadows on the floor as travelers walk through LaGuardia Airport in New York, Monday, March 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart Thursday suggesting the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard put sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz during the war, as uncertainty hangs over a two-week ceasefire and further negotiations are expected in Pakistan.
The shaky ceasefire has been largely holding between the U.S., Israel and Iran, although Tehran and Washington have offered vastly different explanations of the initial terms.
Israel insists the agreement does not apply to their war against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and have escalated deadly strikes there, leading Iran to claim it is violating the deal. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres “unequivocally” condemned Israeli strikes in Lebanon that killed and injured hundreds Wednesday after the ceasefire was announced.
Sirens sounded in northern Israel early Thursday as Hezbollah claimed it was attacking with rocket fire.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that his surge of warships and troops will remain around Iran “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He also insisted Iran would not be able to build nuclear weapons and “the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE.”
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again Wednesday in response to Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Here is the latest:
Iran’s parliament speaker warned Thursday on X that continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon would bring “explicit costs and STRONG responses.”
Like other Iranian officials, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf insisted that the two-week ceasefire extended to Lebanon, something denied by both Israel and the U.S.
“Ceasefire violations carry explicit and STRONG responses,” he wrote. “Extinguish the fire immediately.”
Qalibaf has been discussed as a possible negotiator who could meet U.S. Vice President JD Vance this weekend for talks in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
A day after intense Israeli strikes pounded Lebanon’s capital, survivors recounted scenes of carnage as hospitals struggled to cope with a surge of casualties.
“I thought I was dead. What happened? A big flash of light was in my face and eyes and I found someone flying over and landing next to me. He was dead,” said Rabee Koshok from his bed at the Makassed hospital in Beirut, recalling the moment of impact. “Suddenly, while we are walking, a rocket could come and hit us,” he added.
Wednesday marked the deadliest day in Lebanon in more than five weeks of renewed war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Wael Jarrosh, a doctor, said the hospital received around 70 injured patients within 10 minutes of the blasts.
“This has destroyed us psychologically,” Jarrosh said. “We have to stay prepared so that we can serve our families and the injuries that come in.”
The head of the United Arab Emirates’ major oil company on Thursday sharpened his rhetoric against Iran over the Strait of Hormuz being closed off, saying “the weaponization of this vital waterway, in any form, cannot stand.”
Sultan al-Jaber, the CEO of the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. in the United Arab Emirates, said online that some 230 vessels “sit loaded with oil and ready to sail” through the Strait of Hormuz, now in a chokehold by Iran.
“They, and every vessel that follows, must be free to navigate this corridor without condition,” al-Jaber said. “No country has a legitimate right to determine who may pass and under what terms.”
He added: “Iran has made clear - through both its statements and actions - that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion.”
Lebanon’s health ministry said Thursday that at least 203 people were killed in widespread Israeli strikes in central Beirut and other areas of Lebanon on Wednesday. It said more than 1,000 were wounded.
The death toll Wednesday was the highest for a single day in Lebanon during more than five weeks of renewed war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said it targeted Hezbollah sites. However, several of the buildings that were struck without warning during the afternoon rush hour were in densely-packed commercial and residential areas, leading to widespread civilian casualties. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the strikes “barbaric.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that his country will continue its strikes against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon “with force, precision and determination”, as Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon on Thursday morning.
“Whoever acts against the citizens of Israel will be harmed,” Netanyahu wrote on his social media.
Israel intensified its strikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, saying that its fight with Hezbollah is not part of the two-week ceasefire deal with Iran. Hundreds were killed and wounded.
“I’ve given instructions today to our ambassador in Tehran to return during this time in which a hope for peace is rekindled,” Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told legislators Thursday.
Spain temporarily closed the embassy at the start of the war and evacuated its personnel.
Israel criticized Spain for the decision, with Foreign Minister Gideon Saar calling Spain “an eternal disgrace” on X.
China’s Defense Ministry has denied reports that it offered support to Iran’s military, including alleged intelligence on U.S. force’s location amid the war.
“We firmly oppose the dissemination of speculative and insinuating false information targeting China,” Defense Ministry spokesman Zhang Xiaogang said during a briefing on Thursday.
The Washington Post recently reported that some Chinese private companies, including some with ties to the People’s Liberation Army, had been marketing intelligence about the movements of U.S. forces during the war.
Reuters has reported that China’s largest chipmaker had sent equipment used to make chips to Iran’s military, citing U.S. sources.
“China has always been open and above board on the Iran issue, maintaining an objective and impartial stance,” Zhang said, adding that the country has never engaged “in any activities that could incite conflict.”
The main border crossing between Lebanon and Syria returned to service Thursday, five days after the Israeli military warned of plans to strike it, alleging that Hezbollah was using it to smuggle military equipment.
Both Lebanese and Syrian authorities denied the claim.
The threatened strike never took place. Lebanese officials have said that the U.S. and Egypt interceded to halt it. Syria’s port and customs authority announced the “resumption of normal traffic flow” at the crossing known as Masnaa on the Lebanese side and Jdeidet Yabous on the Syrian side, “following the elimination of the risks that necessitated its temporary closure.”
Travelers had been rerouted to another crossing to in the north, making the trip from Beirut to Damascus several hours longer.
The chief of Iran’s nuclear agency said Thursday that protecting Tehran’s right to enrich uranium is “necessary” for any ceasefire talks with the United States.
Mohammad Eslami, who leads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, made the remarks to journalists including one from The Associated Press in Tehran, Iran, during commemorations for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“It is a part of the necessary (things) that nobody speaks about,” Eslami said, referring to the U.S. refusal to acknowledge enrichment as one part of Iran’s 10-point plan for a permanent ceasefire.
The U.S. and Iran are due to meet in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for talks this weekend.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had a call with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, on Thursday.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said European and other partners are “finalizing” plans to set up a mission to escort ships in the Strait of Hormuz as soon as fighting effectively ends.
Barrot said Thursday “planning for this mission is currently being finalized between French military officials and countries that have volunteered,” speaking on France Inter radio.
Shipping traffic will likely be able to cross the strait safely once an agreement is reached between the belligerents and “with an escort system,” he said.
“Work is well advanced” for the mission to be deployed “once calm has been fully restored,” he said.
On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said about 15 nations are ready to participate in such a mission.
In a speech to Parliament on Thursday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni warned that any extra Iranian duties in the Strait of Hormuz would have “unpredictable economic consequences,” stressing that a full restoration of freedom of movement is needed in the area.
Meloni indicated that as the most critical point of the agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
“Full restoration of freedom of movement in the Strait of Hormuz is needed, and it must not be subject to any restrictions, as appears to have happened in recent hours,” she said.
The Italian prime minister also suggested that, if the crisis in Iran worsens, the European Union should consider suspending the stability and growth pact — a set of rules governing public finances within the EU.
Britain’s foreign minister said Lebanon must be included in a Middle East ceasefire, adding Israel’s continuing attacks on the country are causing mass displacement and dire humanitarian consequences.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told Sky News she is “deeply troubled about the escalating attacks that we saw from Israel in Lebanon yesterday.”
She told the BBC the attacks are “completely wrong.”
Britain and other European countries have called for Israel to stop its strikes on Lebanon and for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Cooper said it’s “crucial” that Iran is not allowed to apply tolls in the strait.
Israel said Thursday it killed an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem in its intense airstrikes that hit Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, on Wednesday.
It identified the man killed as Ali Yusuf Harshi, a secretary and nephew to Kassem.
Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister said his country will allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with “international norms and international law” once the United States ends its “aggression” in the Middle East and Israel stops attacking Lebanon.
Saeed Khatibzadeh told the BBC on Thursday that Iran had closed the strait after U.S. ally Israel committed an “intentional grave violation of the ceasefire.”
He said “you cannot have a cake and eat it at the same time. That was the message that Iran sent quite clearly, crystal-clearly, to Washington and to the Oval Office last night.”
Khatibzadeh added: “Definitely we are going to provide security for safe passage and it is going to happen after the United States actually withdraws this aggression. Does it mean that Iran is going to control the Strait of Hormuz in terms of letting ship by ship to go through that?
“I think that we have shown to everybody that energy security is pivotal for Iran, is pivotal for this body of water in the Persian Gulf, and we are going to be abided by the international norms and international law.”
Mourners across Iran began mourning ceremonies Thursday marking the 40th day after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the Iran war.
In Iran’s capital, Tehran, mourners wearing black began their rally from Jomhouri Eslami Square to the neighborhood of the office of Khamenei, 86.
Iranian state television aired similar commemorations in other cities. It said the ceremonies will continue into the night.
Khamenei’s body has yet to be buried since his death Feb. 28.
His son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, now serves as Iran’s supreme leader.
The strike in the southern Lebanese village of Abbasiyeh also wounded others, the National News Agency reported Thursday morning, in what it said was a preliminary toll.
The Israeli military did not immediately acknowledge the strike.
Israel intensified its strikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, saying that its fight with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group is not part of the two-week ceasefire deal with Iran.
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said the strikes Wednesday killed at least 182 people and wounded 890 others, the highest single-day death toll in the latest Israel-Hezbollah war.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for “each of the belligerents” to fully respect the ceasefire, including in Lebanon, as he spoke separately with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Macron said he “told both of them that their decision to accept a ceasefire was the best possible one,” and “must open the way to comprehensive negotiations,” in a message posted on X late Wednesday.
Macron also said he spoke with Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to express “France’s full solidarity in the face of the indiscriminate strikes carried out by Israel” in the country.
“We condemn these strikes in the strongest possible terms,” Macron said, stressing they pose a direct threat to the sustainability of the ceasefire.
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Natalie Baker on Thursday to discuss the situation in the Middle East and upcoming high-level talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, according to an official statement.
During the meeting, they also reviewed arrangements for the talks being held in Islamabad later this week.
The statement quoted Naqvi as saying that the visiting foreign dignitaries, including U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, would be “special guests” and assured that a comprehensive security plan had been put in place to provide full protection to all foreign guests.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan has deleted an online post saying that Tehran’s negotiating team would arrive Thursday night in Islamabad.
Reza Amiri Moghadam made the initial comment on X, without identifying who was on the Iranian team.
Then he deleted it without comment.
Pakistan has shut schools and government offices for two days in the capital, Islamabad, to keep people off the roads as authorities ramp up security ahead of U.S.-Iran talks later this week.
Officials have imposed sweeping restrictions across the city, including blocking key roads connecting Islamabad with neighboring Rawalpindi.
Shipping containers have been placed at multiple points to restrict movement and limit public access to sensitive areas.
Islamabad appeared unusually quiet Thursday, with many residents staying home as traffic diversions forced longer commutes between Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
The restrictions follow recent unrest in March, when protests by Shiite groups erupted across the country in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The widespread Israeli strikes Wednesday killed at least 182 people and wounded 890 others, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Civil Defense spokesperson Elie Khairallah told The Associated Press that a wounded woman was found alive under the rubble overnight in the seaside Beirut neighborhood of Ain Mreisseh.
A man whose building collapsed after strikes in the capital’s southern suburbs was also found alive in rubble.
“The others so far have been killed,” Khairallah said.
Meanwhile, others like Mohammad Chehab, a Syrian man from Deir el-Zour, are anxiously waiting.
Six of his 10 family members have been found but others are still missing. He tries to stay hopeful.
“They’ve been searching all day,” he said nervously, watching rescue workers dig through the rubble.
Pakistani authorities have stepped-up security in the capital, Islamabad, deploying hundreds of additional police and paramilitary forces ahead of much-awaited peace talks between the United States and Iran.
The talks, seen as a potentially significant diplomatic opening to end the war in the region, will begin later this week.
On Thursday, authorities also moved to seal off parts of the city by placing shipping containers along key roads leading to the city’s Red Zone, a heavily fortified enclave that houses the president and prime minister’s office, the Foreign Ministry, and foreign embassies.
A nearby hotel, where the delegations are expected to stay, has also been brought under tight security.
Iran has not said who will represent its delegation, which is due to arrive in Islamabad later Thursday.
The White House has confirmed that Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. negotiating team in talks with Iran.
Iran’s negotiating team for talks with the United States will arrive Thursday night in Islamabad, the Iranian ambassador there said.
Reza Amiri Moghadam made the comment on X, without identifying who was on the Iranian team.
He wrote that the “Iranian delegation arrives tonight in Islamabad for serious talks based on 10 points proposed by Iran.”
Those points include Iran enriching uranium, maintaining its control of the Strait of Hormuz and other issues that have been nonstarters in the past for U.S. President Donald Trump.
The White House has repeatedly described the 10 points issued by Iran as false.
Moghadam wrote that the Iranians would come to Islamabad despite “skepticism of Iranian public opinion due to repeated ceasefire violations by Israeli regime to sabotage the diplomatic initiative.”
That refers to Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, which Israel and the U.S. have said wasn’t included in the shaky ceasefire.
Ship-tracking data from trade data and analytics platform Kpler showed only four vessels with their Automatic Identification System trackers on passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the first day of the ceasefire.
However, this total does not include so-called “dark fleet” vessels — those with their AIS trackers turned off.
Many of those “dark fleet” ships carry sanctioned Iranian crude oil out to the open market.
FILE - Two police officers walk in front of an anti-U.S. billboard depicting American aircraft being caught by Iranian armed forces in a fishing net beneath the words in Farsi, "The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, The entire Persian Gulf is our hunting ground," in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, April 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)
Ali, 4, holds a toy horse next to the tent his family uses as a shelter after fleeing Israeli bombardment in southern Lebanon, in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
Smoke rises following several Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Firefighters, first responders, and volunteers work on smoldering debris at the site of an Israeli airstrike that struck an apartment building in Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
