Rumors had swirled for weeks before US President Trump's China visit: Beijing wanted Washington to publicly oppose Taiwan independence, while Washington was only willing to say its Taiwan policy remained unchanged.
During the visit, Secretary of State Rubio handled the Taiwan question with surgical precision — or deliberate evasion, depending on your view. Asked about Taiwan, Rubio said only that China wants to unify with Taiwan, and that in his view, "In a perfect world, China's preference is probably to have Taiwan willingly, voluntarily join them”, through “some vote or a referendum in Taiwan that agrees to fold in". Rubio never once stated a position on independence or unification.
Trump was equally elusive on the ground. When reporters pressed him at the Temple of Heaven for his position on Taiwan, he deflected with a line that answered nothing: "China is beautiful."
The real answer came later. After concluding his China visit on May 15, Trump sat down with Fox News anchor Bret Baier — and the tone shifted entirely. Asked whether the people of Taiwan should feel more or less safe following his meeting with President Xi Jinping, Trump replied: "Neutral. This has been going on for years."
Trump said in a Fox News interview that America does not want to go to war for Taiwan.
Then came the pivot Beijing had been waiting for. Trump said US policy on Taiwan had not changed — and then said something that changed everything: "Nothing's changed. I will say this: I'm not looking to have somebody go independent. And, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that." He added: "I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down."
Trump drew his line even more sharply on the question of war. "We’re not looking to have wars," he said. "if you kept it the way it is, I think China is [going to] be OK with that. But we're not looking to have somebody say, ‘Let's go independent because the United States is backing us.'"
Asked whether he foresaw a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Trump was blunt: "No, I don't think so. I think we'll be fine. President Xi doesn't want to see a war. We have two things — the Iran situation… and the Taiwan issue. He doesn't want to see an independence movement."
Two messages, unmistakably clear. First: America does not want to see Taiwan move toward independence and does not support it. Second: America does not want to go to war for Taiwan. Trump has delivered what Beijing expected from him — he has come out explicitly against Taiwan independence.
The arms sales question added another layer of complication. Aboard Air Force One after leaving Beijing, Trump told reporters he had made no promises to President Xi on Taiwan. On arms sales, he said the US would reach a decision soon — after consulting with "the person that right now is running Taiwan."
Aboard Air Force One, Trump said China does not want to see an independence movement in Taiwan, and that America does not want a war 9,500 miles away.
A reporter pointed out the contradiction directly. Under the assurances President Reagan gave Taiwan in 1982, the US pledged not to consult China on arms sales to Taiwan. "So it sounds like you already have consulted China?" the reporter asked. Trump implied that 1982 was a long time ago. When pressed further and asked whether Trump was no longer bound by those assurances — Trump hedged: "No, I didn't say that." But then he confirmed what the question implied that this subject — arms sales to Taiwan — was certainly brought up with President Xi. “What am I going to do, say I don't want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement wrote in 1982? No, we discussed arms sales. I'll be making decisions."
Trump confirmed he had discussed US arms sales to Taiwan with President Xi.
Asked what President Xi had specifically requested, Trump refused to answer directly. "And, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that," he said. "I think that's the last thing we need. We're doing very well right now."
Mao Paishou
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
US President Donald Trump touched down in Beijing aboard Air Force One on the night of May 13 to kick off his state visit. This much-anticipated summit between the world's two superpowers is commanding global attention. Yet, over in Tokyo, the Japanese government finds itself stranded on the diplomatic sidelines with decidedly mixed feelings.
President Xi Jinping sits down for talks with US President Donald Trump.
Japanese leaders racked their brains trying to engineer a pre-Beijing stopover for Trump, according to Nikkei Asia. Tokyo hoped to use the detour to bend America's ear on the so-called "Chinese military threat." But as fresh conflict erupted in Iran, Trump’s itinerary shifted continuously, and Japan’s carefully laid plans evaporated completely.
A White House photograph from March this year captures Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during her strategic visit to Washington.
Make no mistake: Tokyo's initial calculations were highly elaborate. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi phoned Trump on January 2 to push for a Washington trip ahead of his China tour. When Takaichi finally met Trump at the White House in March, the entire visit was built on the premise that a US-China summit would follow shortly after.
A White House photograph from March this year captures Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during her strategic visit to Washington.
The Japanese government relentlessly sought avenues to push its "China threat" narrative to the US president. Beyond Takaichi's Washington trip, officials floated multiple proposals inviting Trump for a strategic transit in Japan before heading to Beijing. Tokyo viewed this as a prime opportunity to parade the ironclad strength of the US-Japan alliance.
A White House photograph from March this year captures Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during her strategic visit to Washington.
Takaichi wanted to deliver a blunt warning directly to Trump, according to Nikkei Asia. She intended to argue that any warming of US-China relations would ultimately benefit only Beijing. By doing so, Takaichi hoped to convince the US leader that the American-Japanese alliance remains an indispensable tool for keeping China in check.
Geopolitical reality then struck hard when US and Israeli forces launched military strikes against Iran on February 28. The sudden Middle East conflict forced Trump to delay his China trip, shifting the focus of US-Japan discussions entirely to securing safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Japan's grand strategy, which hinged on an April US-China summit as a vital foreign policy anchor, began to crumble. Following her Washington trip, Takaichi admitted to aides that a Japanese stopover had been discussed, but shifting schedules left the entire prospect hanging in the balance.
Even after Washington locked in Trump's rescheduled Beijing itinerary, Japan continued working the back channels for a presidential pit stop. A senior Japanese government official confirmed as recently as early May that Tokyo officially requested a brief Trump visit. That frantic diplomatic effort ultimately yielded nothing.
Why is Tokyo gripped by such anxiety? The reality is that the Japanese government has long harboured deep fears about being marginalised by warming relations between Washington and Beijing, as highlighted by Nikkei Asia.
The unease traces back to October 2025, when Trump labelled the US and China as a "G2" following a bilateral summit. While his precise meaning remained murky, the phrase signalled a new global order jointly managed by the two powers. For Tokyo, this trajectory presents massive risks: diminished US military engagement in East Asia could weaken deterrence over Taiwan Strait tensions or North Korean missile threats. Furthermore, Japan fears that allied efforts to restrict China's access to vital economic security sectors like semiconductors and rare earths could be severely compromised.
Japan has navigated this precarious diplomatic tightrope between the US and China before. When Trump first captured the presidency in November 2016, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe scrambled to the United States to court the president-elect before inauguration day. From that first handshake, Abe consistently hammered home the alleged "military threat" from China to ensure Trump valued the US-Japan alliance as a bulwark against Beijing.
Now, history appears to be repeating itself with a bitter twist. This time around, Tokyo failed to secure even a fleeting transit stop from the US president.
Washington did attempt some last-minute diplomatic damage control on May 12, dispatching Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Tokyo just hours before Trump left for China. Bessent held a brisk 15-minute courtesy call on Takaichi to align bilateral positions, later telling reporters that the Prime Minister made no specific demands regarding China. He followed up with a 35-minute session with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to discuss foreign exchange volatility driven by Middle East turmoil. While a senior Japanese foreign affairs official praised the finance ministers' dialogue as highly significant, the modest scale of these meetings fell dramatically short of Tokyo's original grand designs.
Japan-China relations are currently languishing at their lowest ebb in more than a decade, leaving Tokyo intensely nervous about the impending Trump-China discussions. Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, noted that Bessent's quick trip was a clear reassurance play meant to signal that Washington has not forgotten its Asian ally. Yet, Chan pointed to a harsh underlying truth: “The US can never provide enough assurances to Tokyo and Seoul, particularly amid growing doubts in both capitals about long term US commitments to their national security,” he added.
As bilateral friction with China simmers, Tokyo is collectively holding its breath while Trump’s Beijing visit takes centre stage. Japan started the year dreaming of a "Tokyo first" presidential tour, only to watch its hopes for a minor stopover evaporate completely. In this high-stakes game of great-power diplomacy, Japan's acute fear of being pushed to the periphery is probably more intense than ever.
