China Kept Its Word on Soybeans. US Farmers Still Can't Sleep

The receipts are in: Chinese buyers are back, and they're loading up on American soybeans by the millions of tonnes. Bloomberg’s sources confirm that since October, Beijing has greenlit the purchase of at least 8 million tonnes.

While the pundits were doom-scrolling, the orders were quietly flowing through late December, with the bulk of shipments locked in between now and March. It turns out, China keeps its word—much to the relief of desperate American farmers.

China delivers on its promises, throwing a lifeline to American farmers who were left hanging by market volatility.

This purchasing surge kicked off in October, moving at a pace specifically designed to "reassure US exporters" who were sweating bullets. Analyst Ben Buckner from AgResource is already forecasting a "soft target" of 10 million tonnes for 2025, with another 2 million dropping in January 2026. Of course, he’s hedging his bets, noting that specific committed quantities aren’t public yet.

Washington Admits the Truth

Late last month, US officials admitted Beijing agreed to take 12 million tonnes by next January, scaling up to 25 million tonnes annually for the next three years. The receipts are on the water: shipping logs from November 24 show two vessels steaming toward Louisiana to load the first US soybean exports to China since May 2025. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had to go on record in early December, effectively debunking the hysterical claims of "stalled Chinese purchases." China is following the trade agreement to the letter.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent finally admits the truth: China has honored the trade agreement, debunking the "stalled purchase" myths.

You’d think American farmers would be popping champagne, but the mood is more confusion than celebration. Matt Bennett, an Illinois grower, calls the Chinese return a "pleasant surprise"—code for "we didn't expect stable business given the political noise." But notice the caveat: price trends are still a mess. Trump waved a $12 billion relief flag earlier this month, but growers are still waiting for the check to clear. The uncertainty isn't coming from Beijing; it's coming from their own capital.

  

Still, traders are getting jittery: there’s no ink on a formal new "deal," and that ambiguity is hammering prices. Chicago futures tanked on the last trading day of the year for a reason. Analysts note that Chinese buyers are playing it smart—they’re cautious. Why? Because they can be. They might be taking American soybeans now, but they’re simultaneously booking orders from Brazil and Argentina. The US is no longer the only game in town.

The competition for the Chinese market is becoming increasingly fierce. In 2025, Brazil shipped nearly 80% of its soybeans to China, with volumes up 16% through November. They are selling even during the "weak" season of December. With a record Brazilian harvest incoming, the American Soybean Association is sounding the alarm. Brazil and Argentina are taking over the Chinese market, with Brazil controlling about 71% of China’s imports—up from a meager 2% thirty years ago. The US has effectively handed its market share to South America.

The Power Has Shifted

A South China Morning Post analysis back in November hit the nail on the head: China has flipped the script. They are no longer dependent on US crops; they hold the initiative. They pause buying when Washington gets aggressive and resume when things cool down. Soybeans aren't a weapon for the White House anymore; they are Beijing's "insurance policy." While Trump might frame this trade resumption as a victory, it’s actually proof of a profound shift in global leverage.

The writing is on the wall: China’s strategic shift will drastically cut reliance on foreign soybean imports.

Looking down the road, the US farmer’s nightmare is just beginning. A Goldman Sachs research team reported last month that as China accelerates its drive for food self-sufficiency—building a fortress against trade shocks—its reliance on imported soybeans is set to plummet. We’re talking about a drop from 90% dependency to below 30% within the decade.

China’s Ministry of Commerce emphasizes that China is a key player in global agriculture trade and will continue to deepen cooperation with its global trade partners.

This isn't just a projection; it's already happening. The report noted that China's demand management strategy slashed annual consumption by 15 million tonnes between 2021 and 2024. Launched during the 2018 trade war, this move was the real checkmate against "trade uncertainty" from the US. As a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson noted, China remains a key player in global ag-trade and is keeping its doors open for cooperation. But make no mistake: that cooperation is now on China's terms.

Mao Paishou

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

The South Carolina Republican stepped onto Fox News on March 8 boasting that a US-driven regime change in Iran would be "China's nightmare." American media fired back: China has already done the homework and it may even gain an advantage during geopolitical crises.".

US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham

Graham told Fox News that if America successfully overthrows the Iranian government, the operation would rank as "the best money ever spent." "Nobody," he declared, will "threaten [the US] in the Strait of Hormuz again" and Washington would install a "friendly" government in Tehran.

Strait of Hormuz

Graham then pivoted to China. "Venezuela and Iran hold 31% of the world's oil reserves," he said. Control that share, and America would "make a ton of money"—a scenario he called "China's nightmare." The math sounds seductive. The Washington Post wasn't buying it though. On March 13, the paper published a detailed rebuttal, arguing that after years of careful strategic planning, China is now more capable than most countries of weathering a prolonged surge in oil and gas prices.

The report notes that after years of planning, China is more resilient than most countries in facing prolonged oil and gas price spikes.

China's Multi-Layered Energy Fortress

Think of China's energy strategy as a multi-layered fortress. Massive crude oil reserves, a fast-growing electric vehicle industry, and enormous investment in coal, renewables, and energy storage all combine to give Beijing a commanding defensive position against supply shocks. As solar and wind projects multiply and new coal-fired plants come online, China's economy is running increasingly on domestic electricity—not imported fossil fuels.

The numbers back that up. China holds around 1.3 billion barrels of crude oil reserves—enough to weather six full months of Hormuz supply disruption. Its rapid buildout of coal-fired generation provides a robust backstop, keeping industrial output and grid stability intact even when import lines go dark.

About one-third of China’s energy consumption comes from electricity, and more than one-third of that is generated from solar, wind and hydropower.

Ben Cahill, an energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin, puts it plainly: China treats import dependence as a strategic vulnerability and has spent years building walls against it. Data from Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy confirms the payoff—roughly one-third of China's total energy consumption now comes from electricity, and more than a third of that electricity flows from solar, wind, and hydropower, mostly generated with domestic components.

China is in a leading position in the manufacturing and use of electric vehicles.

On the roads, the transformation is equally striking. Most new cars sold in China are now EVs, making it the world leader in both EV production and use. The International Energy Agency credits China's energy transition with avoiding an additional 1.2 million barrels of oil demand per day since 2019—structural savings that give Beijing lasting insulation from precisely the kind of supply shocks Graham is gleefully predicting.

Weaning Off the Hormuz Lifeline

Rush Doshi, Director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations, brings a two-decade perspective. China has systematically reduced its reliance on seaborne oil imports, he notes. Crude flowing through the Strait of Hormuz now accounts for only 40–50% of China's total seaborne oil imports—down significantly from earlier levels.

The contrast with the US is stark. The Washington Post notes that America lags badly in renewable energy and EVs, with an aging power grid pushing electricity costs higher. President Trump's moves to block clean energy projects and slash renewable subsidies have further strangled the growth of wind and solar—leaving the US far more exposed to global oil shocks than its own hawkish rhetoric would suggest.

The irony runs deeper still. The very energy crisis Graham is celebrating could make China an even more attractive partner in renewable energy cooperation. Solar panel glass and grid storage equipment still rely partly on fossil fuels in their production—but China already holds a commanding position in clean energy innovation.

The current crisis may spur a global push for clean energy innovation—and China has already built a strong presence in this field.

American energy policy expert Sarah Ladislaw frames it succinctly: "The current crisis could accelerate the global search for clean energy innovation—and China is already ahead in that field." 

Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, captures the emerging paradox head-on. "If you are, say, in Europe, you might not have wanted to increase your dependence on China for all the stuff you need for electrification, like critical minerals and batteries and solar panels," he says. "But in a world where now the oil and gas market looks pretty risky, too, increasing dependence on China for energy may start to look a little different."