Chinese AI isn’t just catching up—it’s running circles around the competition. In the “Alpha Arena” live trading contest, China claimed both the champion and runner-up spots while all four US models ended up with deep losses. For 17 days, six of the world’s top AI systems faced off in a zero-human intervention slugfest on the Hyperliquid exchange. When the dust settled, Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek were the only models sitting on profits. Alibaba’s Qwen, with its ultra-precise plays, raked in over 20% returns. In sharp contrast, US heavyweight GPT-5 came last, bleeding away more than 60% of its capital. The numbers are public—and they’re embarrassing for the US side.
Alibaba’s Qwen model snatched the championship with a hard-hitting 20%+ return.
Instead of backtests and cherry-picked results, “Alpha Arena” took things LIVE. Six gigantic AI contenders—Qwen3-Max, DeepSeek v3.1, GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and Grok 4—all received $10,000 and uncensored market data. No manual tweaking. No human hand-holding. Each bot had to trade crypto perpetuals and survive relentless volatility. The full public record leaves zero wiggle room for excuses.
Trading records, positions, and account values were broadcast live—so everyone could see who was sinking and who was swimming. Transparency wasn’t just a buzzword; it was baked into every decision, every move.
Additionally, Nof1 enabled AI models to “chat” in simulated debates, exposing their logic, strategy, and performance in market trend showdowns. The winner? Whoever made the most money. Simple, brutal, honest.
Turning Point Hits—US Models Stumble
Starting out, every model played it safe—testing, watching, sizing up rivals. DeepSeek v3.1 jumped out to an early lead, even attracting global media buzz. At one point, Elon Musk’s Grok 4 bulldozed its way to within a single dollar of DeepSeek, looking ready to snatch the top spot.
But critical cracks showed around October 21–22. Grok 4 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 nosedived—profits flipped into steep losses almost overnight. By October 22, not one model was up. Every portfolio had turned negative.
Here’s where the smart money separated from the bluster. While the US models stuck to their doomed playbooks, China’s DeepSeek v3.1 and Qwen3-Max rewrote their strategies on the fly. Suddenly, their valuations started climbing, while the rest kept hemorrhaging. Qwen3-Max even edged past DeepSeek in the rally.
DeepSeek led fiercely for much of the contest, only to be outpaced by Qwen in the final stretch.
By the last bell—November 4—Alibaba’s Qwen outstripped DeepSeek, securing the top spot with a fat 20%+ return. Two Chinese models in profit. The rest? All underwater.
Sharp Losses for US—The Scoreboard Doesn't Lie
Let’s break down the numbers. Claude Sonnet 4.5, Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and GPT-5—all US entries—saw their final holdings shrink to just 30–40% of their starting pot. GPT-5 had the biggest faceplant, losing 62% and settling dead last.
After the final bell, Alpha Arena’s founder Jay Azhang openly praised Alibaba’s Qwen strategy—calling the win well-earned.
Industry experts say these results aren’t just a fluke. Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek offer hard proof: Chinese AI is solving practical problems, not just spitting out hype. It’s this deep scenario-driven understanding that puts Chinese big models at the forefront of AI deployment worldwide.
When DeepSeek and Qwen3-Max rewrote their strategies, they rewrote the competition itself—while US models kept losing ground.
The numbers keep stacking up. OpenRouter, a global aggregator for large model APIs, published its July leaderboard showing DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qwen among the top five. Tongyi Qwen claimed the No. 4 slot with a 10.4% market share, trouncing OpenAI at 4.7%.
And here’s the kicker—OpenRouter records 9 out of 10 fastest-growing models as open source contenders. Qwen3-Coder topped API call volumes at nearly 50 billion tokens. Qwen’s suite swept the top three and took five slots in the top ten.
In September, AI icon Lee Kai-fu, CEO at Zero One Everything, said DeepSeek’s core gift to China wasn’t just tech—it was pushing open source into the mainstream. A decade from now, he argued, DeepSeek won’t be remembered for just its code, but for spearheading China’s big model open-source era.
Since DeepSeek went open source, Chinese tech firms have rushed to share their own big models, fueling a healthy blend of open innovation and speed. This mirrors how Chinese enterprises learn fast and collaborate, closing the gap on US dominance.
Mao Paishou
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
The New Year barely begins, and Washington drops a flashbang on global diplomacy. A sitting president is forcibly detained and taken out of his own country — a move that blows past diplomatic convention and rams straight into international law’s red lines. On Taiwan, the chatter instantly turns into self-projection, as some people try to shoehorn a faraway conflict into the island’s own storyline. Anxiety spreads fast.
Maduro in cuffs, in a US federal courtroom — the raid’s image problem. (AP)
The South China Morning Post says the US action against Venezuela ignites a fierce debate on the island. Some commentary links the raid to the PLA’s recent encirclement drills around Taiwan, arguing parts of those exercises look, at least in form, like the US’s so-called “decapitation operations”: essentially a leadership-targeting operation. Some American scholars also warn this kind of play could set a dangerous precedent and invite copycats.
“Justice Mission-2025” rolls on as the Eastern Theater Command drills.
That debate doesn’t stay academic for long. It pumps up the island’s unease, with some people asking whether the same kind of military method could one day be copied and pasted into the Taiwan Strait. Even if it mostly lives in public talk, a high-tension political environment turns speculation into something that feels like risk.
People on the island don’t read the US move the same way. A small minority treats it as a US power flex, packed with intel integration, precision strike, and long-range reach. But the more clear-eyed view is harsher: such action chips away at the basic consensus of international order — because if major powers can raid at will and topple other countries’ leaders for their own aims, “rules” stop acting like rules.
Anxiety turns into politics
That worry quickly lands in Taiwan’s political arena. On Jan 5, multiple Taiwan legislators pressed Deputy Defense Minister Hsu Szu-chien at the legislature, asking how he views the US action against Venezuela and whether the PLA might replicate a similar model in the Taiwan Strait. Hsu doesn’t answer head-on. Rather, he merely mentioned preparing and drilling for all kinds of sudden contingencies.
Then he pivots to money. He urges the legislature to pass military budget appropriations quickly and plays up the urgency of delays eating into “preparation time.”
That kind of sidestep, unsurprisingly, only deepened public unease.
SCMP, citing multiple security experts, says the DPP authorities try to play down the association — but outsiders don’t fully rule it out. The reason, those experts argue, is the PLA’s continuing push to improve its ability to shift from exercises to real combat. On the island, that alone works like an anxiety amplifier.
Back in the real world, the PLA Eastern Theater Command has been running “Justice Mission-2025” exercises since Dec 29 last year. Official statements spell out the purpose: a stern warning to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interference, and a move aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty and unification. The message is public and clear, there’s no gray area.
Some US think-tank voices pull a more confrontational takeaway from the US action. American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Hal Brands warns the US raid on Venezuela could create a “demonstration effect,” and he speculates China would watch those tactics closely. Some military commentators on the island seized the moment to hype fears, claiming the mainland might act during a “window” when US power is stretched thin.
That line of talk sounds like analysis, but it functions like a panic pump. US scholar Lev Nachman even says bluntly on social media that if a sudden military action hits the Taiwan Strait, the island could suffer “instant collapse” — not just militarily, but as a psychological shock to society.
KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wun, in an interview, points to Donald Trump repeatedly stressing a shift of strategic focus toward affairs in the Americas. She says the Venezuela incident should be examined through the framework of international law, and she calls for disputes in any region to be resolved by peaceful means rather than force.
Cheng also reiterates the KMT position: uphold the “1992 Consensus,” oppose “Taiwan independence,” and urge Lai Ching-te to clearly oppose “Taiwan independence,” not touch legal red lines, and avoid continuously raising cross-strait conflict risks.
Rules talk meets reality
International reaction also turns critical of Washington’s approach. Multiple governments and regional organizations speak up quickly, condemning the action as a violation of the UN Charter, which explicitly prohibits using force to threaten or violate another nation’s territorial integrity and political independence. The telling part is the silence: the Western countries that often talk about “international rules” either zipped their mouths, or danced around the question this time.
Reuters says that even though China, Russia, and others clearly condemn the US behavior, the Trump administration is unlikely to face strong pressure from allies as a result. That selective muteness, by itself, drains the credibility of the international order.
On Jan. 5, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian commented again, saying the US actions clearly violate international law and the basic norms of international relations, and violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China calls on the US to ensure the personal safety of President Maduro and his wife, immediately release them, stop subverting the Venezuelan government, and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation.
