Trump：Taiwan's Problems？ Not My Problems.

The most dramatic moment of Trump's China visit didn't happen in Beijing. It happened after he left.

During Trump's tour of the Temple of Heaven, reporters pressed him repeatedly on Taiwan. He deflected every question with a single line: "China is beautiful."

But once his visit concluded on May 15, the evasion ended. That evening, Foreign Minister Wang Yi summarized the visit with a pointed declaration: "We sensed that the US side understands China's position on Taiwan, takes China's concerns seriously, and — like the international community — does not recognize or accept Taiwan moving toward independence." At the time, Wang Yi's words seemed like a one-sided claim. Then Trump confirmed every word. 

Fox News released an interview on May 16 in which anchor Bret Baier put the question bluntly: "After meeting with Xi Jinping, should people in Taiwan feel more safe or less safe?" Trump's answer was telling. "Neutral. This has been going on for years," he said. Then came the pivot. "I will say this: I'm not looking to have somebody go independent. And, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that."

Trump went further. "I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down. We don't want war. If you kept it the way it is, I think China is [going to] be OK with that. But we're not looking to have somebody say, ‘Let's go independent because the United States is backing us.'"

These remarks mark a significant break from decades of US policy. Washington had long maintained strategic ambiguity on Taiwan — avoiding direct comment on independence and simply calling for the status quo to be preserved. Trump's statement differs on two fronts. First, he explicitly said the US does not want to see Taiwan move toward independence and does not support it. Second, he made clear the US does not want to fight a war over Taiwan.

Arms sales proved equally contentious. Aboard Air Force One after departing Beijing, reporters raised the USD 14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Trump said the US would consult "the people currently governing Taiwan" before making a decision soon. He did not mention Lai Ching-te by name — referring to him only as "the people currently governing Taiwan."

A reporter pressed back. Under the assurances President Reagan gave Taiwan in 1982, the US committed not to consult China on arms sales to Taiwan — yet that was precisely what appeared to be happening. Trump was unapologetic. "1982 was a long time ago," he said. "I certainly mentioned the arms sales to Taiwan with President Xi — we did discuss it, obviously. That's very detailed. And I'll make a decision."

Trump's Taiwan stance carries implications on several levels. The first is choreography. Trump waited until he had left Beijing before publicly opposing Taiwan independence — avoiding the awkward spectacle of being hounded by reporters in China about abandoning Taiwan. The timing appears coordinated between Washington and Beijing in advance. That explains why Wang Yi pre-announced that "the US does not recognize or accept Taiwan moving toward independence." Wang Yi said it first; Trump confirmed it after.

The second implication is commercial. Trump is a businessman, and his opposition to Taiwan independence is a bargaining chip for greater trade concessions. Both sides announced a trade deal and the establishment of a "Trade Council" to manage bilateral commerce — yet China has yet to publicize any figure for purchases of American goods. Beijing is holding back that announcement, waiting for Trump to take a definitive stance on Taiwan and resolve the arms sale question. Trump delivered his part. The US can now expect its reward.

The third implication is strategic — and its impact is immediate. Trump's remarks have dramatically narrowed the space for Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party to pursue independence. By saying he doesn't want to fight a war over Taiwan, Trump is effectively declaring: "Taiwan's problems are not my problems." That position runs directly counter to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's assertion that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency". The fallout does not stop with the pro-independence camp in Taiwan. Takaichi Sanae now finds herself in an extremely awkward and vulnerable position.

The US today follows an "America First" policy — an isolationist course in which American interests come before all else. Those who serve as Washington's pawns will ultimately find themselves discarded. In today's world, it is China and the United States who call the shots. China may not want to be part of a "G2" arrangement, but in reality, that is precisely what it has become.

Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

On the surface, China-US relations look calm. In reality, both sides are locked in close combat.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on July 22. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila.

According to Xinhua, Wang Yi told Rubio that this year marks a landmark year for China-US relations. He noted that the two heads of state held a historic summit in Beijing, which established a positioning of "constructive and stable" strategic relations between the two countries.

Wang also set out China's firm position on what he called a series of negative words and actions by the US side. He demanded that Washington respect China's core interests, abide by the one-China principle, effectively manage frictions and disagreements, and address China's legitimate concerns, so that this year of opportunity for bilateral relations can become reality. Xinhua described the meeting as pragmatic, positive, and constructive.

Wang Yi's phrase "recent series of negative words and actions by the US" deserves close attention. The fact that the meeting was ultimately summed up as "constructive" suggests Washington offered certain commitments behind closed doors.

Two recent moves from the US side stand out as negative. While Washington has delayed new arms sales to Taiwan, it has refused to commit to stopping them altogether. The other issue is tied to AI large language models. China's Moonshot AI recently released its new Kimi K3 model, and its capabilities have caught up with America's most advanced systems.

The breakthrough triggered intense attention and drew a wave of negative commentary from US officials.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists that America remains ahead. He claims the US leads China in AI by roughly a year. His next goal is to push America's share of global computing capacity from the current 60 percent straight up to 80 percent.

Bessent then said on July 21 that Washington would rigorously scrutinize AI models developed overseas with open-source code, including products released by Chinese firms. Should any such model be found to have stolen the intellectual property of US companies, he said, the US government has the means to impose sanctions.

Bessent also said the US government may go a step further and assess whether American companies using Chinese AI models should be required to disclose this to their customers. He likened the issue to that of counterfeit goods, stressing that businesses cannot use products built on stolen intellectual property.

These remarks show that the Trump administration has been thrown off balance by China's new model. It is now scrambling for ways to suppress it. The scrutiny of China's AI sector, which had focused on export controls over advanced chips, may now widen to cover training data, the provenance of underlying technology, corporate disclosure obligations, and intellectual property disputes. Fresh risk added to the US-China AI rivalry.

It's fair to assume that Wang Yi's warning to Rubio went beyond demanding a full halt to US arms sales to Taiwan. The warning was also aimed squarely at Bessent's remarks, calling for an end to the smearing and suppression of Chinese AI models.

This can be summed up in two points.

First, faced with the shock of China's AI advances, the US wants to preserve its own technological lead while unjustly suppressing others at the same time. No amount of spin from Bessent can whitewash that kind of behavior.

Second, Bessent's accusation that Chinese models copied American ones is, in essence, a trumped-up charge. It is one the US can investigate, "convict," and sanction entirely on its own terms. Wang Yi's warning was, in effect, laying the unpleasant truth on the table in advance.

From Beijing's perspective, if Washington uses this as a pretext to escalate, China could immediately turn the tables. President Xi could simply decline to visit the US in September, and Trump, in turn, need not bother coming to Shenzhen in October. That would inevitably rattle the US economy and stock market, right before Trump has to explain himself to voters in November's midterm elections.