UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Responding to Middle East crises and rising oil prices, the United Nations on Tuesday lowered its forecast for global economic growth and raised the prospects for inflation this year.
U.N. economists said global GDP growth is now forecast at 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.7% in January, and they said it could fall to only 2.1% “in a more adverse scenario.”
That would be one of the weakest growth rates this century, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008, Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis in the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said at a news conference.
On a somewhat positive note, he said, “we are not close” to a recession, but life can get harder for billions of people, and some countries may see their economies contract.
Global inflation is projected to rise to 3.9% this year, 0.8% higher than forecast in January, before the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for shipments of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and other petroleum products.
“ Increased energy prices are a potent factor, as are the prices of refinery products that are crucial to industrial production and commercial transport,” Mukherjee said.
But he stressed that not all countries will experience the same rate of inflation.
In richer developed countries, inflation is projected to rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. In developing countries, inflation is forecast to accelerate from 4.2% to 5.2% as higher costs for energy, transportation and imported goods erode real incomes.
The impact of the Iran war has been highly uneven, with the most severe economic damage concentrated in West Asia, a region comprised of 21 Arab countries, including those in the Persian Gulf, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects report for mid-2026.
Economic growth in the region is projected to plunge from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026, “driven not only by the energy shock but also by direct infrastructure damage and severe disruptions to oil production, trade and tourism.”
In Africa, average growth is projected to drop only slightly, from 4.2% last year to 3.9% this year, according to the report. And in Latin America and the Caribbean, it is forecast to slow from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2026.
In the United States, the economy is expected to remain “comparatively resilient” with 2% growth forecast this year, broadly similar to 2025, it said.
By contract, Europe “is more exposed, with heavy reliance on imported energy straining households and businesses,” the economists said. Economic growth in the European Union is expected to slow from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, while growth in the United Kingdom is forecast to drop further, from 1.4% last year to 0.7% this year.
In Asia, the U.N. said China’s diversified energy mix, sizable strategic reserves and government actions are providing a buffer, so its economic growth is only expected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% this year.
India is forecast to remain one of the fastest growing major economics, with its economy expanding by 6.4% this year, although that is lower than its 7.5% growth in 2025.
“The question for China, similar to the case of India and other countries, is just how long with this conflict and the impact of the conflict last, because all these different buffers are clearly limited,” senior U.N. economist Ingo Pitterle told reporters.
The South Korean-operated vessel HMM NAMU is docked after being damaged from a fire following an explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, at a port in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Friday, May 8, 2026. (Kim Sang-hun/Yonhap via AP)
BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) — Federal officials on Thursday gave final approval for the Dakota Access oil pipeline to continue operating its contentious Missouri River crossing, an outcome that comes nearly a decade after boisterous protests against the project on the North Dakota prairie.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ decision to grant the key easement means the pipeline will keep operating but with added conditions for detecting leaks and monitoring groundwater, among others. The announcement brings an end to a drawn-out legal and regulatory saga stemming from the protests in 2016 and 2017, though further litigation over the pipeline is likely.
The $3.8 billion, multistate pipeline has been transporting oil since June 2017 from North Dakota’s Bakken oil field to a terminal in Illinois. The line carries about 4% of U.S. daily oil production, or roughly 540,000 barrels per day,
The Corps is “decisively putting years of delays to rest and moving out to safely execute this crossing beneath Lake Oahe," Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works Adam Telle said in a statement.
The pipeline crosses the river upstream from the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s reservation, which straddles the Dakotas. The tribe has long opposed the pipeline, fearing a spill and contamination of its water supply. In 2016 and 2017, thousands of people camped and protested for months near the river crossing.
The protests resulted in hundreds of arrests and related criminal cases and lawsuits, some of them still ongoing, including litigation that threatens the future of the environmental group Greenpeace.
In December, the Corps released its final environmental impact statement nearly six years after a federal judge ordered a more rigorous review of the pipeline's crossing. In that document, the Corps endorsed the option to grant the easement for the crossing and keep the pipeline operating with modifications.
Those measures include enhanced leak detection and monitoring systems, expanded groundwater and surface water monitoring and third-party expert evaluation of the leak and detection systems, among others, the Corps said. The conditions also include water supply contingency planning and other studies coordinated with affected tribes.
The Corps had weighed several options, including removing or abandoning the pipeline's river crossing or even rerouting it north. The agency said its decision “best balances public safety, protection of environmental resources, and leak detection and response considerations while meeting the project’s purpose and need.”
Pipeline developer Energy Transfer hailed the decision, saying the pipeline has been safely operating for nearly 10 years and is critical to the country’s energy infrastructure.
“We want to thank the Corps for the tremendous amount of time and effort put in by so many to bring this matter to a thoughtful close,” said Vicki Granado, a company spokesperson.
The Associated Press sent text messages and emails to media representatives for the tribe and left a voicemail at the tribe's headquarters. They didn't immediately respond Thursday.
North Dakota Republican Gov. Kelly Armstrong, Interior Secretary and former North Dakota governor Doug Burgum and U.S. Senators John Hoeven and Kevin Cramer each welcomed the decision to ensure the pipeline continues operating.
The Corps' announcement came as officials and oil industry leaders were gathered for a trade conference in Bismarck.
Energy Transfer and Enbridge are in early stages of a project to move about 250,000 daily barrels of light Canadian crude oil through the Dakota Access Pipeline by using another pipeline and building a 56-mile connecting line, spokespersons for the companies said. Enbridge will decide sometime in mid-2026 whether to move ahead.
FILE - A sign for the Dakota Access Pipeline is seen north of Cannonball, N.D. and the Standing Rock Reservation on May 20, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
