BNO Hong Kong People: 9,000 Win UK Permanent Residency — and Some Are Coming Back

The rules held — and that matters. Earlier, the British government floated the possibility that Hong Kong BNO holders might need to reside in the UK for ten years before qualifying for permanent residency, a shift from the existing "5+1" arrangement to a "10+1" scheme. The prospect caused considerable alarm.

Eventually, the rules of the game remained unchanged. Those who arrived in the UK five years ago have been submitting their applications in recent months, and the approval process has gone more smoothly than expected — with most clearing the hurdle in short order. According to the latest figures from the Home Office, 8,682 people have already been granted permanent residency.

A friend of mine living in the UK told me that some who have secured this status are expected to return to Hong Kong for work, given the poor state of the British economy. Those eating humble pie and heading back will trickle in steadily. This new wave of returnees brings mixed blessings for Hong Kong: the property market stands to benefit, but with middle-management positions already in short supply, competition in the job market will only intensify as more people return to vie for the same roles.

Nearly 9,000 Hong Kong BNO holders have been granted UK permanent residency — and some are already eyeing a return to Hong Kong for work.

The scale of the BNO emigration wave, looking back, was nothing short of staggering. In the very first year after the UK government launched the scheme in January 2021, over 90,000 Hong Kong people applied for BNO visas. Had that pace continued, some 380,000 people would have left within five years — a truly alarming figure.

Fortunately, the tide began to turn after 2022, with the number of people emigrating to the UK declining year on year. In the twelve months to March this year, only 7,214 applications were approved — barely a blip. Still, the cumulative number of Hong Kong people who have arrived in the UK over the past five years exceeds 200,000, which is no small figure.

Under the UK government's "5+1" arrangement, Hong Kong BNO holders who have resided in the UK for five years may apply for permanent residency, and then formally obtain citizenship one year later. By that timeline, those who arrived at the peak of the wave in 2021 have been filing their applications in recent months. The Home Office announced on May 21 that nearly 9,000 permanent residency applications have been approved to date, with the number set to climb continuously — likely reaching tens of thousands.

Over 200,000 Hong Kong people have arrived in the UK since 2021. UBS puts the return rate at 10%.

Speed tells a story. My friend in the UK noted that the authorities processed applications faster than expected, with most cases resolved within a matter of weeks and without major complications. The reason the UK government has been so forthcoming is likely straightforward: the majority of Hong Kong BNO holders are employed, pay taxes, and own property — they "contribute to the economy."

From the government's perspective, allowing them to settle is more beneficial than not. On top of that, once Hong Kong BNO holders obtain permanent residency, they become eligible to withdraw their MPF funds — a sum running into the billions of Hong Kong dollars in aggregate — part of which will flow into the British economy. For the UK government, it is a win-win.

As Hong Kong BNO holders gradually obtain permanent residency, what impact will this have on Hong Kong? Another friend of mine in the UK told me that some, now holding this status, will have the freedom to travel in and out without restriction and are expected to return to Hong Kong for work, earning incomes higher than what the UK can offer.

If many share this sentiment, a new wave of returnees is all but inevitable — and the direct beneficiary will be the property market. John Lam, UBS's Head of Asia-Pacific Real Estate Research, estimates that approximately 260,000 Hong Kong people have emigrated to the UK. With some set to obtain citizenship from 2027 onwards. Given the difficulties of finding employment in the UK, a return wave may be on the horizon. Based on a conservative estimate of 10%, the number of returnees could reach 26,000 — a meaningful supporting factor for the private residential market.

Industry insiders caution against overstating the impact of returning Hong Kong people on property prices. Many have already purchased homes in the UK, and if they return to work in Hong Kong, they are more likely to rent than to buy. That said, increased rental demand would still have a positive effect on the property market.

Those who emigrated to the UK were largely middle class, and upon returning, they are expected to seek mid-level positions in IT, finance, and business management. Hong Kong's economy is still finding its footing. Companies have largely been cutting headcount and trimming costs, meaning competition for mid-level roles is already fierce. Adding a cohort of returnees to the mix will tighten the supply-demand balance further. Even so, the return of talent from abroad is ultimately good for driving Hong Kong's economic development.

Hong Kong people in the UK weighing whether to return must also factor in one more consideration. If their children are still young and have already adapted to the local education system, most parents would be reluctant to uproot them and bring them back to Hong Kong. In that case, the only option is a "semi-return" arrangement — one parent heads back to Hong Kong to earn an income while the other stays in the UK to look after the children.

Over the past few decades, every wave of emigration from Hong Kong has been followed by a wave of returnees. It appears that Hong Kong BNO holders will be no exception to this pattern — a testament to the fact that Hong Kong remains a wonderful place and will always be home in the hearts of many.

Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

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A nation’s rise or fall hinges on its ability to retain its brightest minds. The New York Times recently reported that American immigrant and Nobel laureate Omar Yaghi is resigning from the University of California, Berkeley. He is heading to Tsinghua University to lead an artificial intelligence institute for materials research. 

Make no mistake: this move involves more than an attractive contract. As a Palestinian refugee, Yaghi fiercely opposes Donald Trump's anti-immigration policies and fears they threaten scientific development. Immigrants make up 40 percent of American Nobel laureates. Coupled with drastic government funding cuts, experts are warning of the most severe scholar exodus in a decade.

Omar Yaghi is an international authority in materials science and a recent Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry. He recently abandoned the US to join Tsinghua University. He was born a Palestinian refugee and later immigrated to America. His profound anxiety over Trump's anti-immigration agenda is a primary catalyst for his departure.

The migration of elite research talent operates on a mix of pull and push factors. Yaghi’s successful recruitment highlights China’s unwavering commitment to talent development and drawing in top foreign scholars. Water flows down, but human ambition reaches upward. These scholars will only jump ship if they see limitless potential for complementary development in China. For Yaghi, the conditions were perfect.

The New York Times interviewed Ram Seshadri, a chemistry professor at UC Santa Barbara. He noted that Yaghi’s move signals a fundamental shift in the technological rivalry between China and the US. "They've overtaken us in many areas of materials science and chemistry," he said, referring to China. "They're willing to invest very large sums of money to attract new talent." In fact, China currently outpaces the US in publishing top-tier chemistry papers.

The reality is Yaghi's exodus from the US is deeply intertwined with his personal history. The report shed light on his obscure origins. He was born in a Palestinian refugee camp in Jordan and grew up in a squalid room devoid of water or electricity before immigrated to the US when he was 15 years old.

Tsinghua University wooed Yaghi with a highly lucrative employment package. He takes charge of a cutting-edge institute utilizing AI to synthesize new materials. Tsinghua Party Secretary Qiu Yong and President Li Luming both attended his appointment ceremony last week.

This immigrant background leaves him deeply alienated by Trump’s anti-immigration policies. Before flying to Sweden to accept his Nobel Prize last year, he shared his fears with The New York Times. He is dissatisfied with these policies and worries they will dismantle the collaborative system built by universities, corporations, and the government. He sees this as a direct blow to American scientific progress.

The psychological toll of Trump’s brutal stance on top scholars is severe. Last year alone, three American Nobel laureates were born overseas. Immigrants have claimed 40 percent of all Nobel Prizes since the start of the century. Under the current political climate, a growing number of scientists feel the US is no longer a viable home.

But the real issue driving this brain drain is the relentless slashing of scientific research funding. As the pie shrinks, researchers battle over dwindling resources and face immense frustration. A US medical journal revealed that the National Institutes of Health abruptly canceled 700 grants worth $1.8 billion in the first quarter of last year. The National Science Foundation also saw its research budget axed by nearly $1.4 billion.

To exert political pressure on academic institutions, Trump has systematically dismantled numerous research grants. Even financial subsidies for Harvard University have been frozen.

These converging negative factors are leaving top scholars disillusioned and eager to abandon the US. Data from a Nature scientific job platform shows a 35 percent year-on-year surge in American scientists seeking overseas employment. A survey by the publication revealed a staggering 75 percent of researchers desire to leave the country. This trend foreshadows the most dramatic exodus of academics in a decade.

The restlessness among American scientists is further stoked by aggressive recruitment from China and Europe. Both are doubling down with lucrative financial incentives to lure top talent. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development notes that China's research funding growth has eclipsed that of the US. With abundant capital waiting in China, American scholars naturally feel compelled to move.

The eastward migration of US Nobel laureates is rapidly solidifying into a long-term trend. Hong Kong universities offer significantly better compensation for outstanding scholars compared to their American counterparts. This gives Hong Kong an absolute advantage in talent acquisition, and institutions must act quickly to inject impetus into their research programs before missing out.

Lai Ting-yiu