BNO Hong Kong People: 9,000 Win UK Permanent Residency — and Some Are Coming Back

The rules held — and that matters. Earlier, the British government floated the possibility that Hong Kong BNO holders might need to reside in the UK for ten years before qualifying for permanent residency, a shift from the existing "5+1" arrangement to a "10+1" scheme. The prospect caused considerable alarm.

Eventually, the rules of the game remained unchanged. Those who arrived in the UK five years ago have been submitting their applications in recent months, and the approval process has gone more smoothly than expected — with most clearing the hurdle in short order. According to the latest figures from the Home Office, 8,682 people have already been granted permanent residency.

A friend of mine living in the UK told me that some who have secured this status are expected to return to Hong Kong for work, given the poor state of the British economy. Those eating humble pie and heading back will trickle in steadily. This new wave of returnees brings mixed blessings for Hong Kong: the property market stands to benefit, but with middle-management positions already in short supply, competition in the job market will only intensify as more people return to vie for the same roles.

Nearly 9,000 Hong Kong BNO holders have been granted UK permanent residency — and some are already eyeing a return to Hong Kong for work.

The scale of the BNO emigration wave, looking back, was nothing short of staggering. In the very first year after the UK government launched the scheme in January 2021, over 90,000 Hong Kong people applied for BNO visas. Had that pace continued, some 380,000 people would have left within five years — a truly alarming figure.

Fortunately, the tide began to turn after 2022, with the number of people emigrating to the UK declining year on year. In the twelve months to March this year, only 7,214 applications were approved — barely a blip. Still, the cumulative number of Hong Kong people who have arrived in the UK over the past five years exceeds 200,000, which is no small figure.

Under the UK government's "5+1" arrangement, Hong Kong BNO holders who have resided in the UK for five years may apply for permanent residency, and then formally obtain citizenship one year later. By that timeline, those who arrived at the peak of the wave in 2021 have been filing their applications in recent months. The Home Office announced on May 21 that nearly 9,000 permanent residency applications have been approved to date, with the number set to climb continuously — likely reaching tens of thousands.

Over 200,000 Hong Kong people have arrived in the UK since 2021. UBS puts the return rate at 10%.

Speed tells a story. My friend in the UK noted that the authorities processed applications faster than expected, with most cases resolved within a matter of weeks and without major complications. The reason the UK government has been so forthcoming is likely straightforward: the majority of Hong Kong BNO holders are employed, pay taxes, and own property — they "contribute to the economy."

From the government's perspective, allowing them to settle is more beneficial than not. On top of that, once Hong Kong BNO holders obtain permanent residency, they become eligible to withdraw their MPF funds — a sum running into the billions of Hong Kong dollars in aggregate — part of which will flow into the British economy. For the UK government, it is a win-win.

As Hong Kong BNO holders gradually obtain permanent residency, what impact will this have on Hong Kong? Another friend of mine in the UK told me that some, now holding this status, will have the freedom to travel in and out without restriction and are expected to return to Hong Kong for work, earning incomes higher than what the UK can offer.

If many share this sentiment, a new wave of returnees is all but inevitable — and the direct beneficiary will be the property market. John Lam, UBS's Head of Asia-Pacific Real Estate Research, estimates that approximately 260,000 Hong Kong people have emigrated to the UK. With some set to obtain citizenship from 2027 onwards. Given the difficulties of finding employment in the UK, a return wave may be on the horizon. Based on a conservative estimate of 10%, the number of returnees could reach 26,000 — a meaningful supporting factor for the private residential market.

Industry insiders caution against overstating the impact of returning Hong Kong people on property prices. Many have already purchased homes in the UK, and if they return to work in Hong Kong, they are more likely to rent than to buy. That said, increased rental demand would still have a positive effect on the property market.

Those who emigrated to the UK were largely middle class, and upon returning, they are expected to seek mid-level positions in IT, finance, and business management. Hong Kong's economy is still finding its footing. Companies have largely been cutting headcount and trimming costs, meaning competition for mid-level roles is already fierce. Adding a cohort of returnees to the mix will tighten the supply-demand balance further. Even so, the return of talent from abroad is ultimately good for driving Hong Kong's economic development.

Hong Kong people in the UK weighing whether to return must also factor in one more consideration. If their children are still young and have already adapted to the local education system, most parents would be reluctant to uproot them and bring them back to Hong Kong. In that case, the only option is a "semi-return" arrangement — one parent heads back to Hong Kong to earn an income while the other stays in the UK to look after the children.

Over the past few decades, every wave of emigration from Hong Kong has been followed by a wave of returnees. It appears that Hong Kong BNO holders will be no exception to this pattern — a testament to the fact that Hong Kong remains a wonderful place and will always be home in the hearts of many.

Lai Ting-yiu

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America's press-freedom myth just took a serious hit. The Justice Department has subpoenaed four New York Times reporters over an alleged violation of federal criminal law. The FBI has opened its own investigation. Both moves target the paper's exposé on inadequate anti-missile defenses aboard the president's new plane.

Defense Secretary Hegseth unveils "mole-hunt squad," vowing to root out leakers feeding reporters.

The White House has long nursed grudges against the press. Now, in a fury, it has escalated from threats to outright intimidation, deploying subpoenas and detentions alike. As the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire. Someone inside government must be leaking, and that conviction pushed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to announce a special task force. Working hand-in-hand with the Justice Department, the task force aims to root out the "moles."

The showdown between the White House and the press is only heating up, and the real fireworks may still lie ahead.

Trump's sudden switch to the old Air Force One after NATO sparked media exposés, igniting his fury and a subpoena crackdown.

The Plane-Swap Spark

The trigger behind this clash was the so-called "plane-swap incident." After Trump wrapped up the NATO summit in Turkey, his security team abruptly switched him onto the old Air Force One for departure. He skipped the new plane gifted by Qatar entirely, and that alone raised eyebrows.

The New York Times soon reported why. The new aircraft's missile-defense systems were inadequate, the paper said, posing a security risk that forced officials to fall back on the old plane. The White House flatly denied the report, and Trump reportedly flew into a rage. The Justice Department wasted no time, issuing subpoenas to the paper's reporters almost immediately.

There is more to this story. FBI agents reportedly showed up at the New York Times offices before the story even went to print. They demanded the paper pull the piece and reveal its sources.

The paper's leadership flatly refused. In response, the Justice Department broke with convention. Rather than identifying the leaker first, it went straight after the reporters with subpoenas, escalating pressure on the press.

This is not the first time the White House has tried to put reporters in the hot seat. Back in April, a US Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iranian airspace and the pilot went missing after ejecting. Both the New York Times and Axios covered the story.

Iran's military happened to launch a massive search operation around the same time. Whether the two events were connected remains unclear. Still, Trump was quick to blame the media, threatening to jail both the reporters and the leaker.

The White House apparently could not find hard evidence, so it ultimately took no action. That failure only deepened its resentment toward the press, and officials waited for the right moment to strike back hard. This time, the plane-swap incident gave the administration its pretext to wield the legal hammer, and it is determined to teach reporters a lesson they will not forget.

The Pentagon's "Mole Hunt"

The crackdown on "moles" by the Defense Department and the Justice Department has also ramped up. Hegseth posted a video on X yesterday announcing that the Pentagon has teamed up with the Justice Department to form a special task force. Its mission: hunt down whoever has been feeding information to the media, and anyone caught with solid evidence will face the full force of the law.

He said the Pentagon's Office of General Counsel can now require any department unit to hand over information and records tied to leak investigations within 48 hours. Full cooperation is mandatory, with no room for delay or evasion. He also issued a stern warning, declaring that "access to confidential and secret information is a sacred trust, and those who betray that trust will be met with the full force of the law".

Both Hegseth and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche are die-hard Trump loyalists. That alone signals this crackdown comes directly from Trump himself, and it is designed to make heads roll, with some officials facing criminal charges. Even without hard evidence, suspects are still likely to be pushed out of their jobs.

The Pentagon has done this before. Last year it investigated several leak cases, resulting in a number of officials being suspended, including Deputy Chief of Staff Darin Selnick and Senior Adviser Dan Caldwell. Both have since quietly disappeared from their posts.

A Hunt That Cannot Succeed

Some analysts point out a hard truth. Hegseth may be on the warpath, but the Pentagon's "mole problem" could prove impossible to fully stamp out. Since Trump's return and Hegseth's takeover of the Defense Department, internal personnel purges have stirred up widespread resentment, making it easy for reporters to find disgruntled insiders willing to talk. With so many potential leakers around, there is no way to seal every crack.

Hegseth himself is not exactly clean either. Shortly after taking office, he got caught up in the "Signalgate" scandal, leaking secret plans for a US strike on Houthi forces in a group chat. That controversy caused quite the uproar. Having broken the rules himself, how can he expect his subordinates to keep their mouths shut without complaint?

Perhaps the funniest comment came from a netizen who suggested the task force should start by investigating the bartender at Hegseth's favorite watering hole. Given his well-known fondness for drink, the odds of him spilling military secrets over a few rounds are hardly low. In the end, they might just discover that the real "leaker" was Hegseth all along.