The US-Iran situation is volatile — talks and conflict are unfolding in parallel, with no clear resolution in sight. For Trump to make the right calls, he needs precise intelligence. Yet at this critical moment, serious infighting has erupted within the intelligence community. Tensions between the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) have intensified to the point of open hostility.
ODNI serves as Trump's all-seeing eye on intelligence, so any breakdown in CIA intelligence flow could cause dangerous misjudgments. Worse still, the incoming Director of National Intelligence, Pulte, is a staunch Trump loyalist with no intelligence background — making cooperation with the CIA even more difficult, and the situation likely to deteriorate further.
After taking office last year, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard was consistently at odds with the CIA, with tensions escalating relentlessly. The CIA has angrily halted the provision of some intelligence on Iran — a move detrimental to the war effort.
Three words capture the state of the US intelligence system right now: a complete mess. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has abruptly resigned after clashing with Trump. The official reason cited her husband's illness, but in reality, she was dismissed and will leave by the end of the month.
At the same time, Reuters, citing informed sources, revealed that since taking office in February last year, Gabbard had been in constant conflict with the CIA — and that tensions had recently escalated sharply. The CIA has now reportedly stopped providing certain intelligence assessments to ODNI, including analyses related to the Iran conflict.
Insiders say friction erupted shortly after Gabbard took office. She moved against the CIA on multiple fronts. First, she tightened control over the production of the President's Daily Brief, sharply reducing the CIA's direct involvement. Then she established a special task force, claiming it was meant to eliminate politicization within the intelligence system. The task force, however, bypassed the standard intelligence-sharing and declassification procedures that the CIA should have been part of — and operated independently. That infuriated CIA Director Ratcliffe.
ODNI offered a different account, accusing the CIA of obstructing the task force's access to necessary intelligence. Both sides are entrenched in their positions, and the dispute has turned deeply acrimonious.
The infighting has destroyed mutual trust. In retaliation, the CIA has sharply reduced the intelligence it shares with ODNI on Iran. The consequences could be severe: disrupting the intelligence pipeline to the president, distorting battlefield assessments, and ultimately triggering catastrophic decisions.
Gabbard's departure at the end of the month might have offered a chance to reset relations. But Trump has made an unexpected move. He has appointed Pulte — currently head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage regulation — as her successor. Pulte has no intelligence experience whatsoever. He is, however, a fiercely loyal Trump enforcer, clearly positioned to aggressively purge what Trump sees as "deep state" elements within the CIA and other intelligence agencies. If Pulte assumes full control, tensions with the CIA are almost certain to escalate.
Pulte, who is set to replace Gabbard, has no intelligence background. His appointment reflects Trump's need for a loyal enforcer to carry out a sweeping crackdown on the CIA — a move that will inevitably intensify their conflict.
Pulte must still clear the Senate confirmation process. His nomination was immediately attacked by Democratic lawmakers, who argue he lacks any intelligence credentials. They describe him as a partisan enforcer who has repeatedly helped Trump target political opponents — and question the logic of entrusting national security to such a figure.
Those criticisms are not unfounded. Pulte has reportedly exposed alleged "mortgage document fraud" involving Trump's political rivals, using such material to apply legal pressure — tactics widely seen as ruthless. Trump values his aggression and loyalty, which explains the selection. As DNI, Pulte's primary mission will be to overhaul the 18 intelligence agencies under his authority, with the CIA as the main target.
Trump's animosity toward the CIA runs deep. During the 2016 "Russiagate" investigation, a group of intelligence officers participated in assessments he viewed as a "deep state" conspiracy against him — a grievance he has sought to settle ever since. Upon returning to power, he appointed Gabbard to lead ODNI with the key mission of purging the CIA. That decision planted the seeds of today's institutional warfare between the two agencies.
The US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war remain fluid and unpredictable. Yet at this critical juncture, the US intelligence system is tearing itself apart — and the infighting is only getting worse. The leaders of Iran and Russia, watching this spectacle unfold, are surely smiling behind closed doors.
Lai Ting-yiu
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The rules held — and that matters. Earlier, the British government floated the possibility that Hong Kong BNO holders might need to reside in the UK for ten years before qualifying for permanent residency, a shift from the existing "5+1" arrangement to a "10+1" scheme. The prospect caused considerable alarm.
Eventually, the rules of the game remained unchanged. Those who arrived in the UK five years ago have been submitting their applications in recent months, and the approval process has gone more smoothly than expected — with most clearing the hurdle in short order. According to the latest figures from the Home Office, 8,682 people have already been granted permanent residency.
A friend of mine living in the UK told me that some who have secured this status are expected to return to Hong Kong for work, given the poor state of the British economy. Those eating humble pie and heading back will trickle in steadily. This new wave of returnees brings mixed blessings for Hong Kong: the property market stands to benefit, but with middle-management positions already in short supply, competition in the job market will only intensify as more people return to vie for the same roles.
Nearly 9,000 Hong Kong BNO holders have been granted UK permanent residency — and some are already eyeing a return to Hong Kong for work.
The scale of the BNO emigration wave, looking back, was nothing short of staggering. In the very first year after the UK government launched the scheme in January 2021, over 90,000 Hong Kong people applied for BNO visas. Had that pace continued, some 380,000 people would have left within five years — a truly alarming figure.
Fortunately, the tide began to turn after 2022, with the number of people emigrating to the UK declining year on year. In the twelve months to March this year, only 7,214 applications were approved — barely a blip. Still, the cumulative number of Hong Kong people who have arrived in the UK over the past five years exceeds 200,000, which is no small figure.
Under the UK government's "5+1" arrangement, Hong Kong BNO holders who have resided in the UK for five years may apply for permanent residency, and then formally obtain citizenship one year later. By that timeline, those who arrived at the peak of the wave in 2021 have been filing their applications in recent months. The Home Office announced on May 21 that nearly 9,000 permanent residency applications have been approved to date, with the number set to climb continuously — likely reaching tens of thousands.
Over 200,000 Hong Kong people have arrived in the UK since 2021. UBS puts the return rate at 10%.
Speed tells a story. My friend in the UK noted that the authorities processed applications faster than expected, with most cases resolved within a matter of weeks and without major complications. The reason the UK government has been so forthcoming is likely straightforward: the majority of Hong Kong BNO holders are employed, pay taxes, and own property — they "contribute to the economy."
From the government's perspective, allowing them to settle is more beneficial than not. On top of that, once Hong Kong BNO holders obtain permanent residency, they become eligible to withdraw their MPF funds — a sum running into the billions of Hong Kong dollars in aggregate — part of which will flow into the British economy. For the UK government, it is a win-win.
As Hong Kong BNO holders gradually obtain permanent residency, what impact will this have on Hong Kong? Another friend of mine in the UK told me that some, now holding this status, will have the freedom to travel in and out without restriction and are expected to return to Hong Kong for work, earning incomes higher than what the UK can offer.
If many share this sentiment, a new wave of returnees is all but inevitable — and the direct beneficiary will be the property market. John Lam, UBS's Head of Asia-Pacific Real Estate Research, estimates that approximately 260,000 Hong Kong people have emigrated to the UK. With some set to obtain citizenship from 2027 onwards. Given the difficulties of finding employment in the UK, a return wave may be on the horizon. Based on a conservative estimate of 10%, the number of returnees could reach 26,000 — a meaningful supporting factor for the private residential market.
Industry insiders caution against overstating the impact of returning Hong Kong people on property prices. Many have already purchased homes in the UK, and if they return to work in Hong Kong, they are more likely to rent than to buy. That said, increased rental demand would still have a positive effect on the property market.
Those who emigrated to the UK were largely middle class, and upon returning, they are expected to seek mid-level positions in IT, finance, and business management. Hong Kong's economy is still finding its footing. Companies have largely been cutting headcount and trimming costs, meaning competition for mid-level roles is already fierce. Adding a cohort of returnees to the mix will tighten the supply-demand balance further. Even so, the return of talent from abroad is ultimately good for driving Hong Kong's economic development.
Hong Kong people in the UK weighing whether to return must also factor in one more consideration. If their children are still young and have already adapted to the local education system, most parents would be reluctant to uproot them and bring them back to Hong Kong. In that case, the only option is a "semi-return" arrangement — one parent heads back to Hong Kong to earn an income while the other stays in the UK to look after the children.
Over the past few decades, every wave of emigration from Hong Kong has been followed by a wave of returnees. It appears that Hong Kong BNO holders will be no exception to this pattern — a testament to the fact that Hong Kong remains a wonderful place and will always be home in the hearts of many.
Lai Ting-yiu
