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Japan's Military Can't Find Recruits. A Lawmaker Just Said Why

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Japan's Military Can't Find Recruits. A Lawmaker Just Said Why
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Japan's Military Can't Find Recruits. A Lawmaker Just Said Why

2026-06-21 12:05 Last Updated At:12:10

Something telling happened in the Japanese parliament recently. A lawmaker said something the government found deeply uncomfortable — something that happened to be true — and was promptly accused of making a gaffe. What she said inadvertently laid bare the Self-Defense Force's most glaring embarrassment, setting off a storm of public debate.

A Parliamentary Question That Triggered a PR Crisis

Koga Chikage, a Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) member of the House of Councillors, spent over 30 years teaching at primary and secondary schools in Fukuoka Prefecture. On June 15, she appeared before the Senate Budget Committee to question Defense Minister Koizumi Shinjiro on a children's booklet produced by the Ministry of Defense “Easy to Understand! Japan's Defense”.

The booklet tells Japanese children that the military capabilities of China, North Korea, and Russia pose a security threat to Japan and its surroundings.

Koga raised a concern: Japanese schools have children from China, North Korea, and Russia too — would content like this hurt their feelings? She asked the government to explain whether the feelings of these children had been considered when the materials were written.

This was never going to sit well with Japan's conservative commentariat. Yet for those who believe peace matters more than confrontation, the question itself was entirely reasonable.

Then came her second remark — the one that blew up in her face: "Children from economically disadvantaged families join the SDF." She added, "No children from rich families become SDF members."

The chamber erupted. Koizumi Shinjiro seized the moment: Koga had spoken at length about concern for the feelings of Chinese children — but didn't her remark that "only poor kids join the military" do precisely the same harm to the children of SDF members? Koga was left speechless, acknowledged her words were inappropriate, and retracted them.

By June 17, the fallout had escalated further. CDP party leader Mizuoka Toshikazu felt compelled to issue a public apology at an internal party meeting, stating that Koga's remarks had shown a "lack of consideration for the feelings of SDF personnel, their families, and those connected to them." The party expressed its deep regret.

The More People Criticize, the More the Numbers Stand Out

The incident spread rapidly across Japanese social media, with public anger zeroing in on Koga's alleged "discrimination against SDF personnel." While Japan was busy tearing itself apart online, one question went conspicuously unanswered: how much truth was there in what Koga actually said?

Japan's accelerating military expansion has been raising alarm across East Asia for some time. Since Abe Shinzo entrenched his "strong military" doctrine, Japan's defense budget has risen for 14 consecutive years. This year it breaks all previous records as Japan charges toward the 2% of GDP target demanded by the United States — a figure equivalent to Japan spending over HK$450 billion annually on armaments.

Military spending can be inflated year after year by parliamentary vote. Young people, however, voted differently.

The Japan Self-Defense Force — Japan's military, which cannot be called an army under constitutional constraints — has repeatedly fallen short of its recruitment targets in recent years. In 2023, the annual recruitment goal was approximately 20,000; fewer than half were actually enlisted.

The shortfall has widened every year, and the overall headcount now sits more than 20,000 below approved strength. The Ministry of Defense's own documents have acknowledged that the recruitment environment remains "persistently severe" and that securing personnel has become "the paramount challenge."

The reason is not difficult to understand. Japan's labor market is acutely short-staffed across virtually every sector: convenience stores post hiring notices, logistics companies raise wages to poach workers, and tech firms offer premium salaries to attract talent.

Young people have no shortage of options. In this environment, persuading someone to give up relatively flexible employment and submit to rigorous military training and constant deployment readiness has become a markedly harder sell.

Young People Are Voting With Their Feet

The Ministry of Defense's official explanation for the recruitment crisis points to Japan's declining birth rate and shrinking workforce. The convenient thing about this framing is that it blames demographic structure, sparing the government from confronting a more uncomfortable question: Japanese young people are not without choices; they simply have not chosen the SDF.

Opinion polls have long pointed to a deeper contradiction. A JNN survey found that while 53% of the public say they support increasing defense spending, opposition jumps to 71% when the question is made concrete: "funding military expenditure through tax increases." People support having someone enlist, just not necessarily their own children. People back higher defense spending, just not if it comes out of their own pockets.

A teacher of over 30 years, instinctively remarking in parliament that "children from better-off families don't join the military" — however politically incorrect that statement may be in Japan's public discourse, the social reality it reflects was clearly not conjured from thin air.

The Ghost of Militarism Frightens No One

Japan's authorities show no sign of listening to what the public mood is telling them. Since the Abe era, Japan has been treading an ever more unmistakable path toward the rehabilitation of militarism: record-breaking defense budgets, renewed momentum to revise the constitution, and children's educational materials that openly portray neighboring countries as threats.

Figures such as Takaichi Sanae have repeatedly issued provocative statements, championing confrontation with scant regard for regional stability. China has on multiple occasions made its position unambiguously clear: the historical crimes of Japanese militarism are seared into the memory of the peoples of Asia, and any attempt to retrace that path is a betrayal of history and a threat to regional peace.

Defense budgets can be voted through parliament year after year. Children's booklets can be printed and distributed in thousands. But no law can compel young people to put on a uniform with any genuine willingness. Year after year, fewer Japanese young people are walking into recruitment offices. That, without question, is the most clear-eyed rejection that Japan's youth has delivered against the country's drive to rehabilitate militarism.




Deep Throat

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

The future belongs to artificial general intelligence (AGI). China and the United States are pursuing different strategies in the contest for global leadership.

But one US national security think tank wants to take the rivalry to an extreme. The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has gone so far as to suggest that Washington consider extreme measures to stop China from achieving AGI first.

CNAS released “Superpowers and AGI” report late last month.

CNAS released “Superpowers and AGI” report late last month.

Jacob Stokes, one of the report's authors and a former White House official, called on the US to prepare itself. He listed possible extreme measures, from diplomacy and espionage to cyberattacks and coercive steps. Among them: military strikes on Chinese data centers.

Stokes, one of the authors of the report urged extreme steps, even strikes on Chinese data centers.

Stokes, one of the authors of the report urged extreme steps, even strikes on Chinese data centers.

CNAS is headquartered in Washington and was founded in 2007. It has long advised the US government on defense, Indo-Pacific and China strategy. Its lean is hawkish.

Late last month, CNAS released a report titled “Superpowers and AGI”. The document reeks of gunpowder. It argues that the race for AGI, and the technology's potential emergence, could profoundly affect US-China competition. It could also heighten the risk of military conflict or catastrophe on multiple fronts.

The Containment Checklist

To that end, the report urges US policymakers to act on several fronts. First, ensure that American resources and technology do not aid China's AI development. Second, establish AI-focused diplomatic channels with allies and with China, so that the potential emergence of AGI is placed on the agenda. Third, develop a technically sophisticated method to track the inputs into AGI and the key performance thresholds of frontier AI systems.

The list goes on. Washington should conduct scenario exercises testing when and how the US should intervene to halt China's AGI development. It should prepare to reverse-engineer or steal the technology should China obtain AGI first. And it should limit and contain the reach of authoritarian digital infrastructure.

The most extreme proposal of all is military strikes. The South China Morning Post reported on 4 September that Stokes, deputy director of CNAS's Indo-Pacific Security Program, addressed an online event on Thursday.

His message was blunt. The US Department of Defense, the National Security Agency and other agencies should begin assessing what intelligence would be needed to justify such operations. That would pave the way for the "hard action" to follow.

The Cold War Playbook

Stokes served as a national security staffer under former US president Barack Obama. In the report he unabashedly lays out a menu of what he calls "diplomatic, espionage, cyber and kinetic measures." Among them are military strikes on the data centers that train and run China's AGI systems. He even touts preventive strikes before China develops AGI at all.

Stokes goes so far as to compare the undertaking to the way "in a past era, policymakers would learn about nuclear weapons." His declared method is to "work backwards from the science to the policy implications."

Citing assessments by research outfit Epoch AI, the report notes that the US currently leads China in advanced AI models by only "months." But it warns that China could pull off an "unexpected technological breakthrough" in fields such as robotics and "embodied AI."

Citing research institute Epoch AI data, the report sees China pulling off surprise breakthroughs.

Citing research institute Epoch AI data, the report sees China pulling off surprise breakthroughs.

Notably, Stokes also concedes a gap on the American side. The US government and its intelligence agencies have "not been organised for espionage to gather technological secrets for decades."

"The Height of Recklessness"

Stokes' extreme remarks have drawn questioning within the United States itself. William Hartung, a senior arms and defense budget expert at the Washington-based non-profit Project On Government Oversight (POGO), publicly slammed the report as "the height of recklessness."

Hartung warned that any strike on Chinese data centers would "risk starting a shooting war between two nuclear-armed powers". Such a war could bring tragic consequences for all concerned.

China has consistently maintained that AI should be people-centered and that intelligence should serve the good. Military applications must remain under human control. Beijing opposes turning technological issues into bloc confrontation or weaponry.

Make no mistake: technological competition is no casus belli. When individual American politicians and think-tank figures reach for threats of "military strikes" and "espionage" at every turn, they gravely violate the basic norms of international relations. They also expose a dangerous bid to politicize and militarize technology.

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