NEW YORK (AP) — Middle-income Americans straining to pay for Affordable Care Act health insurance are unlikely to get relief next year, according to a new analysis that shows insurers in the marketplace are proposing a second straight year of double-digit premium hikes.
Across the 77 insurers in the ACA program that have submitted rate filings that are publicly available, the median proposed premium increase for 2027 is 14%, according to Wednesday’s analysis from the healthcare research nonprofit KFF. The insurers cited mounting healthcare costs, federal regulatory changes and the recent expiration of pandemic-era enhanced subsidies as the biggest factors driving premiums higher.
The rise in premiums adds to what already was a significant jump in 2026, when the median rate increase was 20%, according to KFF.
While most Americans in Obamacare still qualify for subsidies that protect them from paying the full premiums, middle-class enrollees who don't get those subsidies will face an especially stark increase in costs. That group includes households with incomes at or above 400% of the poverty level — about $63,000 per year for an individual or $129,000 for a family of four.
The rate increases come as federal lawmakers have proposed various policy changes to overhaul the expensive U.S. healthcare system, but no comprehensive legislation has amassed enough support to pass. The higher costs are contributing to Americans’ existing worries about overall affordability, a concern that many voters say is front of mind with November’s midterm elections looming.
Health insurers must send filings to regulators every year, explaining what they expect to see in premium rate changes for individual market health plans for the coming year.
Next year’s rates will be finalized later in the summer, but KFF’s analysis looked at those in the ACA marketplace that already are public across 16 states and Washington, D.C., to get an early glimpse at what insurers are saying. The report measured insurers' premium increases as an average across all types of plans — bronze, silver, gold and platinum.
The analysis found that insurers listed rising costs across the healthcare sector — from hospital visits to prescription drugs, the workforce and sicker patients — as the biggest cause of rising premiums. Overall inflation contributed to that pressure, driving prices higher across the entire economy.
Insurers also blamed the expiration of federal subsidies that had offset costs for many people and caused the Affordable Care Act program to balloon in size in recent years. When those tax credits expired in January, many plan costs skyrocketed. That prompted large swaths of enrollees to depart the marketplace, leaving sicker patients who carry higher risks and costs, and driving premiums higher.
New state-by-state data posted by the Trump administration shows that the overall ACA marketplace shrunk by more than 2.5 million people over the past year, with some states seeing declines amounting to nearly a third of their enrollee population.
Some insurers added that federal regulatory changes contributed to their requests for higher premiums. For example, they said new enrollment and eligibility requirements instituted by the Trump administration could affect the overall population of ACA enrollees.
While Affordable Care Act enrollees make up less than 10% of the population, similar cost drivers are likely to make other private plans, including employer-sponsored plans, pricier too, according to KFF’s analysis.
Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms also published an analysis of preliminary ACA insurer rate filings last month. Like KFF's, it projected double-digit premium increases in the marketplace next year.
Stacey Pogue, a senior research fellow at the center who authored the report, said the enrollees most affected by the rising premiums will be those who don't qualify for financial help. She said those people already saw the most significant increases to their premiums in 2026, with some of their premiums doubling or tripling.
“Those are the folks who kind of got a double whammy” this year, she said.
Pogue said the rate filings are demonstrating what many analysts had expected: that the expiration of enhanced tax credits would cause healthy Americans to flee the marketplace and leave a sicker patient population that relies more heavily on insurance.
“When the healthy people leave, the prices go up,” she said. “The analysts all predicted that, and now that's what we're seeing.”
FILE - The healthcare.gov website is seen on Dec. 14, 2021, in Fort Washington, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)
FILE - A man walks by an healthcare insurance office in Hialeah, Fla., July 27, 2017, (AP Photo/Alan Diaz, File)
PROVO, Utah (AP) — Lawyers for the man accused of killing conservative activist Charlie Kirk are expected to keep questioning the reliability of DNA testing used to link the defendant to the suspected murder weapon when a weeklong hearing resumes Wednesday.
A member of Tyler Robinson's defense team interrogated a DNA analyst from the FBI on Tuesday about the techniques she used to connect Robinson to a towel wrapped around a rifle found at Utah Valley University, where Kirk was shot in September while speaking to a large crowd.
Defense lawyer Michael Burt cast doubt on the analyst's conclusions — a theme likely to recur during the five-day preliminary hearing.
“She can't match Mr. Robinson to the questioned samples,” Burt argued.
Deputy Utah County Attorney Ryan McBride countered that the reliability of the DNA testing could be examined if the case goes to trial. He suggested the preliminary hearing — where prosecutors have a lower burden of proof compared with a trial — was not the time to take up the matter.
“The point is there are explanations that are susceptible to different interpretations and arguments,” McBride said. “Ultimately, we’re going to have an expert hearing where all the literature is going to be before the court and the court is going to determine if it meets the threshold of reliability for admission to trial.”
Prosecutors intend to seek the death penalty. State District Judge Tony Graf will decide at the conclusion of this week's hearing if they have enough evidence to bring Robinson to trial on an aggravated murder charge.
Robinson has not yet entered a plea and his attorneys have not commented on his guilt or innocence. They have, however, sought to get the death penalty taken off the table, so far unsuccessfully.
FBI analyst Amanda Bakker said after Robinson’s roommate, Lance Twiggs, provided a DNA sample for comparison, she was able to rerun her tests and attribute all of the DNA to two people.
Investigators found the towel and suspected murder weapon — a bolt-action rifle with one spent round — in a wooded area near where Kirk was shot.
DNA on the towel matched to two people, Jennifer Faumuina with the State Bureau of Investigation testified. One was Robinson’s roommate and the other was very likely Robinson, she said. Twiggs, a key figure in the prosecution’s case, will not testify in person this week, but prosecutors have said they plan to introduce a recorded statement.
Prosecutors allege Robinson confessed in a note left for Twiggs, who was also his romantic partner, that read: “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I’m going to take it.”
Investigators say Robinson went to a rooftop near where Kirk was speaking and shot him once through the neck as the activist was taking questions from a crowd of several thousand people. Kirk was declared dead after being taken to a hospital.
Prosecutors contend the shooting endangered others at Kirk’s campus event — an aggravating circumstance that could make the crime punishable by death under Utah law. Robinson also faces possible sentence enhancements based on the prosecution’s claim that he targeted Kirk because of his political views.
During one of several appearances on campus by Robinson on Sept. 10, the defendant went to the amphitheater where Kirk was later shot, State Bureau of Investigation Agent David Hull testified Tuesday. Hull said Robinson made contact with representatives of Turning Point USA, a group co-founded by Kirk that galvanized the conservative youth vote to help Trump win a second term.
The investigator did not detail what occurred during that interaction or if members of Kirk’s security team were present.
Robinson turned himself in after the shooting. Prosecutors allege he sent a text to Twiggs saying he targeted Kirk because he “had enough of his hatred.”
Robinson’s defense team pushed back Tuesday on the idea that he was hostile to Kirk’s politics. Defense attorney Richard Novak sought to block prosecutors from introducing a statement describing the traditional Christian values of Turning Point USA.
“This doesn’t say anything about Mr. Robinson’s state of mind,” Novak said about the statement from Turning Point USA board member David Engelhardt. “I don’t think that this court should be deciding — based on the record before it — where, if at all, politics and religion intersect,”
The judge ruled that the Turning Point statement was relevant and would be “provisionally admitted,” with a final decision later on.
Brown reported from Billings, Montana.
Deputy Utah County Attorney Ryan McBride speaks during a preliminary hearing in Fourth District Court for Tyler Robinson, who is accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk, in Provo, Utah, on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. (Trent Nelson/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool)
DNA analyst Amanda Bakker testifies during a preliminary hearing for Tyler Robinson, who is accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk, in Provo, Utah, on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. (Trent Nelson/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool)
Utah Department of Public Safety Sergeant Jennifer Faumuina testifies during a preliminary hearing in Fourth District Court for Tyler Robinson, who is accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk, in Provo on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. (Trent Nelson/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool)
Erika Kirk leaves the Fourth District Courthouse, Monday, July 6, 2026, in Provo, Utah, after a hearing for Tyler Robinson, accused in the fatal shooting of Charlie Kirk. (AP Photo/Marielle Scott)
Defense attorney Kathryn Nester, left, talks to Tyler Robinson during a preliminary hearing in Fourth District Court for Robinson, who is accused of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk, in Provo, Utah, on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. (Trent Nelson/The Salt Lake Tribune via AP, Pool)
