“Black Riot Financier" collaborates with two major alligators to wager on Hong Kong upheaval: Guo Wengui puts up a big swindle and will not escape the authorities.

During the black riot, Guo Wengui, the "fraudulent businessman" who was discovered to be the financier, was eventually apprehended. A federal judge in Manhattan, New York, just found him guilty of conspiracy to defraud, money laundering, and nine other crimes, indicating that he defrauded thousands of followers out of a total of USD1 billion, and he is expected to serve decades in jail.

Friends in the political circle analysed several of Guo Wengui's "secret stories," demonstrating that the argument of an external source behind the anti-extradition law turmoil in 2019 is based on facts. He not only supported the Hong Kong independence movement, but he also collaborated with two political and business sharks in the United States, seeking to profit from the upheaval in Hong Kong. If this gamble had worked, the repercussions would have been disastrous.

Guo Wengui was convicted of scamming a billion US dollars. He and US political magnate Bannon colluded to put up the hoax, supporting the black riot behind the scenes while simultaneously injecting money into hedge fund billionaire Bass's fund, betting on Hong Kong's financial collapse.

Guo Wengui, who fled to the United States from mainland China, covertly established a "water hose" behind the scenes to provide financial assistance to Hong Kong independence activists. This information was initially revealed during a phone discussion with Leung Chung Hang, the convener of the "Hong Kong National Front."  In the leaked portion, he commended Leung Chung Hang as a "hero" and stated that his action must continue, "If the momentum is lost this time, there will be no possibility of coming back."
Additionally, he said: "I promise you two things: first, I will continue to guarantee however much money is needed; second, I tell you that the United States will be handled by me and Bannon (former Chief Strategist of the White House), who has met with some of the top echelons of the United States."

Guo Wengui's assertion was not a casual remark. At the time, he was very close to Bannon, who was highly anti-China, and had secretly raised funding to support the anti-extradition law protests. That was merely the beginning; the ultimate goal was to bring down the Beijing regime.

He first met Bannon in 2017, and the two, characterised as "like-minded and equally nefarious," established a USD100 million fund to probe into corruption in China and support the "persecuted." By 2019, this fund has been the source of what he stated to Mr. Leung: "continue to guarantee however much money is needed."

Guo Wengui was introduced to hedge fund tycoon Bass through his association with Bannon at the time. This man is likewise very anti-China and has expressed pessimism about the Chinese economy. In 2017, he bet on the RMB’s considerable devaluation and engaged in large-scale short selling, incurring a loss.

When the black riot broke out in 2019, he established a fund to capitalise on the deteriorating instability in Hong Kong by short selling Hong Kong dollars in a large scale, expecting the fund to earn considerably from the financial collapse. Bass made high-profile public statements at the time, claiming that the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance would drive many foreign corporations to relocate, severely impacting the economy and exchange rate stability, and that the linked exchange rate system was "in imminent danger."

Did Bass fund the anti-extradition movement behind the scenes?

There is no evidence, but the more tumultuous Hong Kong's politics is, the better his chance of winning.

According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Saraca Media Group, GTV's parent firm with connections to Guo and Bannon, transferred $100 million to an undisclosed hedge fund at the time. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that it was one of Bass' hedge funds. That is, the three men collectively gambled that the situation in Hong Kong would spiral out of control. With this in mind, and Guo and Bannon both expecting that the Hong Kong unrest would cause regime instability in Beijing, there is grounds to suspect that they surreptitiously supported the radicals to make Hong Kong as turbulent as possible. All three people desired that Hong Kong would be as chaotic as possible, with Guo Wengui and Bannon's ultimate goal being that the upheaval in Hong Kong would cause the Beijing regime to collapse. According to Bloomberg, even after enacting the Hong Kong National Security Law in 2020, the fund continued to wager that the linked exchange rate system would fail and the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar will decouple within a year and half.

Of course, the outcome was not as predicted. The Hong Kong-US dollar link remained unchanged, and Hong's financial system remains as stable as ever. The machinations and secret acts of Guo Wengui and the two political and business magnates demonstrate that during the 2019 black riot, the foreign hidden forces affecting Hong Kong were more powerful than we could ever perceive. Fortunately, Guo Wengui and Bannon eventually failed and lost their entire gamble. Otherwise, the outcome would have been awful.

Lai Ting Yiu

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Trump just rolled out another tariff threat, and this time Iran's trading partners are in his crosshairs. On January 12, the US president announced a blanket 25% tariff on any country "doing business" with Tehran.

The international press immediately fixated on China—Iran's biggest trade partner. Reuters warned this could reignite the US–China trade war and shred the fragile truce both sides hammered out last year. But Chinese scholars aren't buying it. They say Trump lacks the nerve to slap Beijing with new tariffs, because China will hit back hard—and make him regret it.

Anti-government protests erupt in Iran. (AP photo)

The Financial Times reported on January 12 that these tariffs—which took effect immediately—could slam China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Brazil, and Iraq. All of them trade heavily with Iran. Russia sealed a new free trade deal with Iran in 2025, making it another potential target.

CNN pointed out the stakes for Beijing. China trades with both Iran and the US, so if Washington applies these tariffs, Chinese goods entering America could see costs spike. The network recalled that after last year's summit in Busan, South Korea, the Chinese and US presidents agreed to pause portions of their tariff war—a temporary truce.

Iran as Flashpoint, Again

Reuters published a piece on January 13 titled "Trump's Iran Tariff Threat Risks Reopening China Rift." The article traced how Iran became a powder keg in US–China relations during Trump's first term (2017–2021).

Back then, Washington tightened sanctions on Tehran and blacklisted Huawei, accusing the Chinese telecom giant of selling tech to Iran. That led to the arrest of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei's daughter, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada—triggering a diplomatic crisis and sending bilateral tensions through the roof.

Now Trump's targeting Iran again. If he follows through, total US tariffs on Chinese exports could exceed 70%—way higher than the rates both sides agreed to last October when they dialed down their trade fight.

It's still unclear which countries or entities Trump will actually target. He hasn't named China explicitly. But Reuters noted Trump has a track record of making bombastic statements that could upend US foreign policy—only to back off later.

US–China "truce" forged in Busan last year now at risk if Trump's Iran tariffs target Beijing. (AP file photo)

Beijing Calls Trump's Bluff

Wu Xinbo, Dean of Fudan University's School of International Relations, told Reuters that China sees through Trump's posturing. "China will call (Trump's) bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China, and if he does, China will retaliate and he will be punished," said Wu.

Another Chinese scholar pushed back on the narrative that China and Iran are economically intertwined, noting that "China and Iran are not as close as in the public imagination".

China Customs data backs that up. Beijing has dramatically reduced imports from Iran in recent years. Through November last year, China imported just 2.9 billion USD worth of Iranian goods—a far cry from the 21 billion USD peak in 2018, during Trump's first presidency.

Some sources claim China's major oil companies stopped doing business with Iran in 2022. Yet China's purchases from Tehran still run into the billions, thanks to independent refiners handling shipments.

China as Convenient Scapegoat

Wang Jin, a researcher at Beijing's Dialogue Think Tank, told reporters that "China is just an excuse, a kind of disguise for the Trump administration, to impose new pressure (on) Iran."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's tariff threat on January 13. She stated that China's position on tariffs is crystal clear: tariff wars produce no winners. Beijing will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests.

Analysts warn that Trump's renewed attempt to cut Iran off from global trade could heighten worries about the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran serves as a strategic hub for Chinese goods heading to the Middle East.

This tariff gambit has cast doubt on Trump's planned April visit to China. Observers had expected him to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing during that trip.

The Wall Street Journal echoed Reuters' concerns, warning that new tariffs on Iran's trading partners could wreck the US–China trade truce.

But Reuters also cited Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who questioned whether Trump's tariff policy is even enforceable. "Last year he announced tariffs related to 'illicit' Russian oil trade, but their implementation was patchy." Xu said.

He went on stating that "Trump is also the kind of person who likes bullying the weak," Xu said. "He should manage his actions to avoid these tariffs escalating into direct confrontation with China".