Trump's Latest Iran Tariff Bluff: China Sees Right Through It

Trump just rolled out another tariff threat, and this time Iran's trading partners are in his crosshairs. On January 12, the US president announced a blanket 25% tariff on any country "doing business" with Tehran.

The international press immediately fixated on China—Iran's biggest trade partner. Reuters warned this could reignite the US–China trade war and shred the fragile truce both sides hammered out last year. But Chinese scholars aren't buying it. They say Trump lacks the nerve to slap Beijing with new tariffs, because China will hit back hard—and make him regret it.

Anti-government protests erupt in Iran. (AP photo)

The Financial Times reported on January 12 that these tariffs—which took effect immediately—could slam China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Brazil, and Iraq. All of them trade heavily with Iran. Russia sealed a new free trade deal with Iran in 2025, making it another potential target.

CNN pointed out the stakes for Beijing. China trades with both Iran and the US, so if Washington applies these tariffs, Chinese goods entering America could see costs spike. The network recalled that after last year's summit in Busan, South Korea, the Chinese and US presidents agreed to pause portions of their tariff war—a temporary truce.

Iran as Flashpoint, Again

Reuters published a piece on January 13 titled "Trump's Iran Tariff Threat Risks Reopening China Rift." The article traced how Iran became a powder keg in US–China relations during Trump's first term (2017–2021).

Back then, Washington tightened sanctions on Tehran and blacklisted Huawei, accusing the Chinese telecom giant of selling tech to Iran. That led to the arrest of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei's daughter, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada—triggering a diplomatic crisis and sending bilateral tensions through the roof.

Now Trump's targeting Iran again. If he follows through, total US tariffs on Chinese exports could exceed 70%—way higher than the rates both sides agreed to last October when they dialed down their trade fight.

It's still unclear which countries or entities Trump will actually target. He hasn't named China explicitly. But Reuters noted Trump has a track record of making bombastic statements that could upend US foreign policy—only to back off later.

US–China "truce" forged in Busan last year now at risk if Trump's Iran tariffs target Beijing. (AP file photo)

Beijing Calls Trump's Bluff

Wu Xinbo, Dean of Fudan University's School of International Relations, told Reuters that China sees through Trump's posturing. "China will call (Trump's) bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China, and if he does, China will retaliate and he will be punished," said Wu.

Another Chinese scholar pushed back on the narrative that China and Iran are economically intertwined, noting that "China and Iran are not as close as in the public imagination".

China Customs data backs that up. Beijing has dramatically reduced imports from Iran in recent years. Through November last year, China imported just 2.9 billion USD worth of Iranian goods—a far cry from the 21 billion USD peak in 2018, during Trump's first presidency.

Some sources claim China's major oil companies stopped doing business with Iran in 2022. Yet China's purchases from Tehran still run into the billions, thanks to independent refiners handling shipments.

China as Convenient Scapegoat

Wang Jin, a researcher at Beijing's Dialogue Think Tank, told reporters that "China is just an excuse, a kind of disguise for the Trump administration, to impose new pressure (on) Iran."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's tariff threat on January 13. She stated that China's position on tariffs is crystal clear: tariff wars produce no winners. Beijing will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests.

Analysts warn that Trump's renewed attempt to cut Iran off from global trade could heighten worries about the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran serves as a strategic hub for Chinese goods heading to the Middle East.

This tariff gambit has cast doubt on Trump's planned April visit to China. Observers had expected him to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing during that trip.

The Wall Street Journal echoed Reuters' concerns, warning that new tariffs on Iran's trading partners could wreck the US–China trade truce.

But Reuters also cited Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who questioned whether Trump's tariff policy is even enforceable. "Last year he announced tariffs related to 'illicit' Russian oil trade, but their implementation was patchy." Xu said.

He went on stating that "Trump is also the kind of person who likes bullying the weak," Xu said. "He should manage his actions to avoid these tariffs escalating into direct confrontation with China".

Deep Throat

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

On 21 February, U.S. President Donald Trump posted to his Truth Social platform with a pointed announcement: he would team up with Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry to dispatch a large medical vessel to Greenland, citing the plight of "many people who are sick and not being taken care of there." Trump claimed the ship was already en route. However, his plan was rejected by Denmark, so was his claim that sick people in Greenland were not taken care of.

The reality is, anyone who has been tracking Chinese diplomacy over the past year would recognize this playbook instantly. On 5 September 2025, the Chinese Navy's hospital ship Silk Road Ark departed Quanzhou, Fujian Province, bound for the South Pacific and Latin America to execute Mission Harmony 2025 — a sustained, documented humanitarian deployment that Trump's announcement conspicuously mirrors.

The results have been concrete and verifiable: officers and crew have delivered medical services to communities across South America, with cumulative outpatient visits reaching 22,000.

According to a CCTV report dated the 22nd, the Silk Road Ark has been navigating the Eastern Pacific for over 20 consecutive days. During the Lunar New Year holiday, the ship's command overhauled its food storage and temperature-controlled preservation systems — all to ensure officers and crew could sit down to a fresh, nutritious New Year's Eve dinner. The kitchen team, it turns out, had a few tricks up their sleeves.

Ingenuity in the Pacific

Make no mistake: ocean voyages present brutal logistical challenges, and fresh soy products are among the first casualties of long resupply intervals. So squad leader Ban Hangyuan — nicknamed "Tofu Sergeant" by his crewmates — improvised. He soaked soybeans, ground them into a slurry, boiled and filtered the liquid, then used purified seawater to slowly coagulate the curd. After pressing it into moulds and letting it set for an hour, smooth, silky-white "Silk Road Ark"-brand "seawater tofu" came straight out of the mould — and promptly became the most popular signature dishes among the crew.

Though the ship sailed 13 time zones from home, a spirit of reunion filled every corner of the vessel. On New Year's Eve, the dining hall was decked with lanterns and streamers, warm with the full flavour of the season. A steaming banquet — ten auspicious dishes, balanced between meat and vegetables and rich in nutrition — was served hot, and the crew raised their glasses in toast.

To date, the Silk Road Ark has visited six countries — Nauru, Fiji, Tonga, Jamaica, Barbados, and Brazil — with technical port calls in Nicaragua and Uruguay. The cumulative tally: 22,148 outpatient consultations, 2,417 surgeries, 120 inpatient admissions, and 12 medical exchange sessions. Each stop has deepened China's friendly medical cooperation with the countries visited.