Trump's Latest Iran Tariff Bluff: China Sees Right Through It

Trump just rolled out another tariff threat, and this time Iran's trading partners are in his crosshairs. On January 12, the US president announced a blanket 25% tariff on any country "doing business" with Tehran.

The international press immediately fixated on China—Iran's biggest trade partner. Reuters warned this could reignite the US–China trade war and shred the fragile truce both sides hammered out last year. But Chinese scholars aren't buying it. They say Trump lacks the nerve to slap Beijing with new tariffs, because China will hit back hard—and make him regret it.

Anti-government protests erupt in Iran. (AP photo)

The Financial Times reported on January 12 that these tariffs—which took effect immediately—could slam China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Brazil, and Iraq. All of them trade heavily with Iran. Russia sealed a new free trade deal with Iran in 2025, making it another potential target.

CNN pointed out the stakes for Beijing. China trades with both Iran and the US, so if Washington applies these tariffs, Chinese goods entering America could see costs spike. The network recalled that after last year's summit in Busan, South Korea, the Chinese and US presidents agreed to pause portions of their tariff war—a temporary truce.

Iran as Flashpoint, Again

Reuters published a piece on January 13 titled "Trump's Iran Tariff Threat Risks Reopening China Rift." The article traced how Iran became a powder keg in US–China relations during Trump's first term (2017–2021).

Back then, Washington tightened sanctions on Tehran and blacklisted Huawei, accusing the Chinese telecom giant of selling tech to Iran. That led to the arrest of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei's daughter, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada—triggering a diplomatic crisis and sending bilateral tensions through the roof.

Now Trump's targeting Iran again. If he follows through, total US tariffs on Chinese exports could exceed 70%—way higher than the rates both sides agreed to last October when they dialed down their trade fight.

It's still unclear which countries or entities Trump will actually target. He hasn't named China explicitly. But Reuters noted Trump has a track record of making bombastic statements that could upend US foreign policy—only to back off later.

US–China "truce" forged in Busan last year now at risk if Trump's Iran tariffs target Beijing. (AP file photo)

Beijing Calls Trump's Bluff

Wu Xinbo, Dean of Fudan University's School of International Relations, told Reuters that China sees through Trump's posturing. "China will call (Trump's) bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China, and if he does, China will retaliate and he will be punished," said Wu.

Another Chinese scholar pushed back on the narrative that China and Iran are economically intertwined, noting that "China and Iran are not as close as in the public imagination".

China Customs data backs that up. Beijing has dramatically reduced imports from Iran in recent years. Through November last year, China imported just 2.9 billion USD worth of Iranian goods—a far cry from the 21 billion USD peak in 2018, during Trump's first presidency.

Some sources claim China's major oil companies stopped doing business with Iran in 2022. Yet China's purchases from Tehran still run into the billions, thanks to independent refiners handling shipments.

China as Convenient Scapegoat

Wang Jin, a researcher at Beijing's Dialogue Think Tank, told reporters that "China is just an excuse, a kind of disguise for the Trump administration, to impose new pressure (on) Iran."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's tariff threat on January 13. She stated that China's position on tariffs is crystal clear: tariff wars produce no winners. Beijing will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests.

Analysts warn that Trump's renewed attempt to cut Iran off from global trade could heighten worries about the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran serves as a strategic hub for Chinese goods heading to the Middle East.

This tariff gambit has cast doubt on Trump's planned April visit to China. Observers had expected him to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing during that trip.

The Wall Street Journal echoed Reuters' concerns, warning that new tariffs on Iran's trading partners could wreck the US–China trade truce.

But Reuters also cited Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who questioned whether Trump's tariff policy is even enforceable. "Last year he announced tariffs related to 'illicit' Russian oil trade, but their implementation was patchy." Xu said.

He went on stating that "Trump is also the kind of person who likes bullying the weak," Xu said. "He should manage his actions to avoid these tariffs escalating into direct confrontation with China".

Deep Throat

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Actions speak louder than words. Conn Selmer — the largest manufacturer of brass and orchestral instruments in the United States, owned by Wall Street billionaire John Paulson — has announced it will move production of tubas, marching tubas, and part of its French horn output from its Eastlake, Ohio plant to China. The factory closes at the end of June, cutting 150 jobs.

Conn Selmer – the largest manufacturer of brass and orchestral instruments in the United States.

The contradiction here is hard to ignore. Paulson is not only a major financial backer of Trump — he is a political ally who has publicly pledged to defend American manufacturing. His actions now run directly counter to his "America First" rhetoric, and the workers bearing the cost are furious.

Paulson is both a major financial backer of President Trump and a political ally who has pledged to defend American manufacturing.

According to a Reuters report on April 17, Paulson raised about US$50.5 million for Trump's 2024 election campaign. In a September interview with CNBC that year, he declared: "We can’t have American producers closing American factories and offshoring. We need to protect American jobs and protect American manufacturing." 

Yet this month, Conn Selmer confirmed that its Eastlake brass instrument plant will cease operations entirely, with production shifting to China. As early as February, The Guardian had revealed Paulson's plan to outsource most of the factory's operations, describing the move as "a slap in the face" to workers.

Paulson, now 71, heads the investment firm Paulson & Co. He earned the nickname "the God of Short-Selling" and is widely regarded as one of finance's most influential figures. His ties with Trump stretch back to 2016, when he publicly backed Trump after the Republican nomination and served as a top economic adviser to the campaign. Today, a deep rift has opened between his business decisions and his political stance — made all the more jarring given his past criticism of outsourcing and his vocal support for tariff policy.

Conn Selmer previously informed the union representing 150 workers that the Eastlake plant closure and production shift had been finalized, with the shutdown scheduled for the end of June.

Conn Selmer had already informed the union representing 150 workers that the Eastlake closure was final, with a June-end deadline. A local United Auto Workers chapter said employees only learned of the shutdown last month, during contract negotiations — when the company made clear the decision was non-negotiable and the plant would simply close. The company had quietly established a factory in China last year and had been gradually shifting operations there. The restructuring is expected to cut US$13 million in costs in one stroke to maintain competitiveness. Even a 20.4% tariff on Chinese-made brass instruments did nothing to halt the move.

Keith Czika, an 18-year plant veteran, joined fellow union members in lobbying efforts, hoping Paulson's access to Trump might prompt a reversal. It got them nowhere. "Why would Paulson decide to move the factory to China? I still can't wrap my head around it," Czika said. "China, after all, is an economic rival of the United States."

Annette Dombrowski, a 64-year-old cleaner, broke down in tears multiple times during a briefing on severance arrangements. The irony stings: the briefing was held in the American Legion hall where she had once celebrated her own wedding. She relies on modest Social Security income and admits deep anxiety about what comes next. "I think America is in a terrible state right now," she said. "I'm starting to regret voting for Trump."

The political stakes are rising. John Plecnik, a Republican in Lake County, Ohio, issued a blunt warning: if job protection promises are not delivered before the November midterm elections, the party risks losing its working-class base. "If we don’t keep the promise of protecting jobs, I wouldn’t blame them for going right back and voting Democrat." 

Of the six Trump-supporting workers Reuters interviewed, five said they would still back Republican candidates. Czika kept his support for Trump — but added a condition: "If you keep your promises, that'll be fine," he said. "If you don't, that'll be a problem. America First. Bring manufacturing back."

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, since Trump returned to the White House, U.S. manufacturing jobs have fallen by about 100,000.

The numbers tell a damning story. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. manufacturing employment has dropped by about 100,000 jobs since Trump returned to the White House. Conn Selmer's spokesperson said the plant closure "will enhance our competitiveness and better meet current market demand." As of now, the White House has not responded to workers' calls for Trump to intervene.