Four Charts That Show Why Washington Blinked First

CNN just laid out the evidence in four charts, which explained why China had the upper hand at the Busan summit.

On November 2, the network pulled official data from China's General Administration of Customs and the US Department of Agriculture to show exactly how Beijing outmaneuvered Washington in this trade standoff. By the time Chinese and US leaders sat down in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 to hammer out what observers are calling a one-year "ceasefire," China had already shifted the playing board.

Xi and Trump face off in Busan—numbers speak first. AP Photo

The data confirms it—China followed through on its promises to reduce dependence on US markets, and American negotiators had to adjust accordingly.

US Market Share Shrinks

CNN's first chart tracks a stark shift: “The US now accounts for around 10% of Chinese exports, down from more than 15% a year ago.” The decline started before Trump's second term even began, then accelerated sharply in recent months. September's numbers tell the story—China's exports to the US hit $34.3 billion, down 27% from $47 billion the year prior.

The network's reporting confirms what trade watchers suspected: Beijing wasn't bluffing about pivoting away from US dependency.

Despite the US trade plunge, China's overall exports grew 6.1% this year, with September posting an 8.3% year-on-year jump. CNN's second chart makes the point visually—while US trade cratered, exports to the EU and ASEAN surged. China didn't just survive the trade war; it found new customers and expanded market share elsewhere.

The data shows China successfully executed its diversification strategy while US farmers and ranchers watched their market access evaporate.

The Soybean Shift

CNN's third and fourth charts zero in on two agricultural commodities that matter: soybeans and beef. The network notes that US soybeans have long been central to trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington. The September 2025 data marks a milestone—for the first time in years, China imported zero US soybeans that month. Not a single bushel.

Instead, Brazil and Argentina stepped in to fill the gap. Both South American countries saw continuous export growth to China throughout the period. When Argentina temporarily lifted soybean export taxes in September, China promptly purchased approximately 1.2 million tonnes from the country.

Chicago soybean futures—a benchmark for global prices—rose in the days before the Busan summit. After the leaders met, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Thursday, October 30, that China agreed to purchase 12 million tonnes of soybeans this season and committed to buying 25 million tonnes annually for the next three years.

Beef Exports Collapse

The beef numbers reveal an even more dramatic collapse. China ranks as the third-largest buyer of US beef, but purchases dropped like a stone in recent months. According to US Department of Agriculture data, China bought $481 million worth of US beef from January to July this year—just 8% of total US beef exports. That's a 47% decline from the same period last year, when Chinese purchases accounted for 15% of US exports.

September's figures are even starker. China's General Administration of Customs reported importing just $11 million worth of US beef last month—a 90% plunge from the $110 million imported in September last year. Australia and Argentina picked up the slack, increasing their beef shipments to China as US ranchers lost access.

These four charts provide a straightforward answer to why the side that initially escalated tensions—the US—eventually "backed down" and pursued constructive dialogue with China. The data shows Beijing meant what it said about diversifying trade partners and proved capable of executing that strategy.

Belt and Road Delivers

The Economist reported this month that China's "thriving" Belt and Road Initiative played a positive role in this round of US-China competition. The publication noted that the initiative promoted China's trade diversification on two fronts: Chinese component manufacturers expanded their export markets through factories established in Belt and Road countries, while those same countries developed their own industrial export capabilities—further strengthening China's resilience in global supply chains.

Deep Throat

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Canada just threw the rulebook out. While Washington tries to bully automakers into abandoning Canadian factories, Ottawa slashed import tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles from a punishing 106.1% down to 6.1% – a move that cracks open the door for Chinese EVs to flood the Canadian market. The numbers tell the story: Chinese EV exports to Canada cratered 92% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024 under the old tariff regime. Now Prime Minister Carney is calling the shots from Davos, warning middle powers they need to stick together or risk becoming "menu items" for superpowers playing hardball.

From 106.1% to 6.1%

Here's what actually changed. Since October 2024, Canada's previous government had parroted US policy by slapping a 100% additional tariff on Chinese EVs, pushing the combined rate to 106.1%. Chinese EV exports to Canada collapsed 92% in Q4 2024 compared to the previous quarter.

Canada slashes tariffs from 106.1% to 6.1%. Stock photo

The new policy strips that away, restoring the 6.1% base tariff and establishing an annual import quota of 49,000 vehicles. Carney framed this as fostering Sino-Canadian cooperation, projecting that joint ventures between Chinese companies and Canadian partners will materialize within three years – preserving and creating auto sector jobs while strengthening Canada's EV supply chain. The agreement commits to bringing more affordable models to Canadian buyers, with over 50% of imported EVs expected to cost less than CAD 35,000 within five years.

Automakers and market analysts are calling it a "major boon." Sun Xiaohong, an expert from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, noted that Chinese EVs match the Canadian market well on price and performance, and the policy shift will restore positive growth momentum.

The price gap that's driving Ottawa's pivot. Stock photo

Price competitiveness remains the killer advantage. Market comparisons show that equivalent Chinese EV models typically sell for US$10,000 to US$15,000 less than existing options in Canada. Polling data backs this up: most Canadians support tariff cuts to boost their purchasing power.

Payback for Trade Bullying

Bloomberg characterized this as a direct response to the current US administration's strong-arming of automakers to relocate factories from Canada to the United States – while simultaneously opening the door for Chinese carmakers to assemble vehicles in Canada for the first time.

Daniel Breton, head of the Canadian Electric Vehicle Association, put it plainly: the US President has publicly declared he doesn't want any Canada-built cars sold in the US, effectively threatening Canada's entire auto industry. The policy adjustment is "right on time," enabling Canada to find new partners and reduce over-reliance on the US market. Industry forecasts suggest Chinese brands could capture roughly 10% of the Canadian EV market share.

Significantly, the new policy marks the first time Canada opens the door for Chinese firms to assemble cars domestically, though it may attach conditions like joint ventures or mandates for local software.

Sun Xiaohong analyzed that in 2025, the US government rolled out a series of tariff increases targeting autos and parts – measures that applied equally to Canada. This prompted many companies originally producing in Canada to shift capacity to the US mainland, leaving output gaps in Canada. As a result, Ottawa is actively seeking global auto investors, including from China.

Canada's government is developing a new auto industry strategy, scheduled for release in February, focused on attracting foreign investment, nurturing local industry, and reducing dependence on the US.

Sun believes Sino-Canadian auto cooperation could evolve from trade to investment, with strong odds of Chinese firms establishing assembly operations in Canada. As a USMCA member, Canada offers an attractive market and a gateway into North America. The Chinese side will monitor the stability of Canada's investment climate and policy continuity to ensure healthy, long-term collaboration.

"Not at the Table? On the Menu"

At the Davos World Economic Forum, Canadian Prime Minister Carney delivered a headline-grabbing speech, urging middle powers worldwide to band together and push back against coercion by aggressive superpowers.

Prime Minister Carney at Davos. AP photo

Though he didn't name US President Trump directly, he referenced "American hegemony" and accused "great powers" of weaponizing economic integration. Facing this new reality, Canada must "be both principled and pragmatic" – pivoting inward to build the nation, diversify trade relationships, and reduce dependence on the US and others, because it's now clear that "integration" breeds "subordination".

 

Carney put it bluntly: the long-standing US-led, rules-based international order is finished. Middle powers like Canada need a strategic pivot to avoid becoming casualties of "coercion" from powerful forces. "When the strong can do what they can”, there is a strong tendency for countries to “go along to get along, to accommodate, to avoid trouble, to hope that compliance will buy safety”. “Well, it won’t”, said Carney. “The middle powers must act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu.”