Trump Fought the Wrong War — Now He Needs China to Fix It

The US war against Iran has dragged on for over half a month. Trump has clearly miscalculated.

The US's greatest success came on February 28, the first day of the war, when it killed Iran's supreme leader Khamenei. But as the conflict unfolded, it has gradually shifted into a situation unfavorable for the US.

First, it failed to trigger regime change.

Trump was convinced Iran was just like Venezuela, riddled with internal fractures. After Venezuelan leader Maduro was captured by US invasion, interim president Rodríguez immediately reached an agreement with the US and restored diplomatic relations. Trump fully expected that after killing Khamenei, he could push Iran to install a pro-American regime. But Iran held firm and re-elected Khamenei's son Mojtaba as supreme leader.


Khamenei was actually a civilian by background and had served as Iran's president, whereas his son Mojtaba fought in the Iran-Iraq War in his youth, served in the elite volunteer corps of the Revolutionary Guards, and was subsequently viewed as a representative of the hardline pro-Revolutionary Guards faction within the regime—likely even more hardline than Khamenei. The US ended up pushing Iran to install an even more anti-American regime.


Second, the situation spiraled out of control.


Everyone expected the US-Iran conflict to mirror the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, where the US deployed six aircraft carrier battle groups to saturate the Persian Gulf and Red Sea with attacks, systematically destroying Iraqi air defenses and counterattack capabilities before wrapping up the war quickly.

This time, however, played out entirely differently—the US performed poorly.

The USS Lincoln carrier battle group reportedly closed to within 346 kilometers of Iran before coming under attack. Iran fired four anti-ship missiles and four cruise missiles at the Lincoln. Iran claimed the carrier was damaged; the US denied it, but observers watched the Lincoln retreat steadily away from the Persian Gulf.

When the US deployed the USS Ford carrier battle group as backup, it too kept its distance from Iran. Iran declared that within its territorial waters and 700 kilometers of its coastline, not a single US warship remained—evidence, Iran argued, that the US feared Iranian missile strikes.


The damage extended further. Iran claimed it had destroyed four THAAD air defense systems at separate US military bases across the Middle East, plus one ground-based Pave Paws regional radar. Only eight THAAD systems exist globally—the only systems capable of intercepting missiles both inside and outside the atmosphere—and Iran eliminated four in one strike. Only seven Pave Paws regional radar systems exist worldwide; Iran took out one. The military achievement was staggering. The US urgently withdrew one THAAD system and Patriot missiles from South Korea to reinforce the Middle East.


US combat losses were unprecedented. Iran had never struck the US with this intensity before, exposing Trump's miscalculation: he believed Iran lacked the capability to retaliate effectively. Whether Iran had been holding back or simply unwilling to escalate further to preserve negotiating room remains unclear, but the US miscalculation proved costly.


Most US radar systems in the region were destroyed, leaving American forces essentially half-blind across the Middle East. US military bases in multiple countries now sat exposed to Iranian missile strikes. Israel continued absorbing heavy blows from Iran. After dismantling large swaths of US air defense radar, Iran announced it would no longer fire missiles under one ton—meaning it would deploy heavy missiles against US forces and Israel in the region, leaving the US in a severely weakened position.


Third, closing the Strait of Hormuz

Iran controls the throat of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world's oil must pass. According to Lloyd's List data, only 77 vessels have transited the strait since March this year. In the same period last year, March 1 to 11, 1,229 vessels passed through. The Strait of Hormuz is approaching a de facto blockade. Oil prices have surged sharply, and Trump's approval ratings have plummeted. He's freaking out.

Trump's latest move is to drag China into the fray. In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, March 15, he demanded that countries join the United States in escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. He said beneficiaries of the strait should help ensure nothing bad happens to it. Since 90% of China's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, he believes China should also provide assistance. He also suggested possibly delaying the planned end-of-month US-China summit with President Xi Jinping, hoping to know China's response before the meeting. Waiting two weeks until then would be too late.


Trump has now created a major crisis with Iran and cannot stop the conflict even if he wanted to. Even if the United States unilaterally ceases hostilities, it cannot guarantee that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow oil prices to fall rapidly. So while the US appears to want China to join in escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, it may actually be asking China to play peacemaker and mediate the dispute between the US and Iran, allowing Trump to exit with dignity.

Trump is that pathetic character who creates trouble everywhere and then needs others to help clean up his mess.


Lo Wing-hung

Bastille Commentary

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America's double standards sometimes reach a truly appalling level. The US constantly presents itself as the world's defender of human rights — yet when the bodies pile up, human lives don’t seem to count.

On February 28 — the first day of joint US-Israel strikes on Iran — a girls' elementary school in Minab, in southern Iran, was hit. Local officials reported at least 175 deaths. More than 160 of the dead were female pupils.

Washington's first move was to dodge responsibility entirely. Trump suggested the school had been struck by inaccurate Iranian munitions. On March 7, aboard Air Force One, he told reporters: "In my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran."

As the controversy grew, Trump changed his tune and claimed ignorance. Then Iran released images of missile debris recovered from the scene — clearly showing a US-made Tomahawk cruise missile, with the words "Made in USA" visibly inscribed on it.

Evidence Written on the Missile

Trump still dug in on March 9. At a press conference in Miami, asked directly whether it was a Tomahawk cruise missile that struck the girls' school, he insisted: "A Tomahawk is very generic. It's sold to other countries. Iran has some Tomahawks, and they want more. But whether it's Iran or somebody else, a Tomahawk is very commonly used." He added that the matter was under investigation.

Those claims were clearly baseless. Neither Iran nor Israel possesses Tomahawk missiles — the United States is effectively the sole operator. Tomahawk exports are strictly controlled; aside from the US, reportedly only Australia and the United Kingdom field these missiles, and there is absolutely no possibility either would sell them to Iran.

In the end, The New York Times — citing a preliminary US military investigation — reported that the girls' school was indeed struck by US forces. Military intelligence personnel had relied on outdated targeting data, mistaking the school for an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility. Tomahawk cruise missiles finished the job, causing devastating casualties.

What makes it worse: the US military carried out a double-tap strike. A second attack arrived just minutes after the first hit on the school — a tactic classically associated with killing first responders. With the evidence overwhelming and the truth impossible to conceal, the US appears to have pre-emptively leaked the findings, acknowledging responsibility in hopes of containing the fallout.

A Front Page the World Won't Forget

The damage is done regardless. Striking an elementary school with cruise missiles has outraged people around the world. Iran's English-language newspaper, the Tehran Times, ran portraits of the more than 160 dead schoolgirls across its entire front page, under the headline: "Trump, Look Them in the Eyes."

Whether intentional or the result of faulty intelligence, this attack may well constitute a war crime under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Article 8 of the Rome Statute lays out the key conditions clearly.

I. Existence of Armed Conflict

There must be an international armed conflict, and the act must be closely related to that conflict. Ordinary domestic disturbances do not qualify.

II. Victims Must Be Protected Persons

The targets must not be persons directly participating in hostilities — such as civilians, the wounded, and prisoners of war. Protected civilian property, including hospitals and schools, falls under the same prohibition.

III. Serious Violation of International Law

The act must constitute a grave breach of international humanitarian law. It must also have been criminalised under treaty or customary law.

The United States launched a war without UN authorisation — a serious violation of international law — and then missile-struck children who should be protected under the laws of armed conflict. That conduct is potentially criminal as a war crime. Washington readily intervenes in the affairs of other nations for all manner of reasons, yet brushes its own crimes aside with barely a word.

Make no mistake: no US military personnel will be held accountable for this massacre of Iranian schoolchildren. Not the intelligence officers who gathered the faulty data. Not the heads of the relevant intelligence agencies. Not the generals who ordered strikes in that area. Not the Secretary of Defense. Not the President himself. 

This episode carries a pointed message for Hong Kong. When those who have fled abroad continue to eagerly seek meetings with senior US government officials, urging them to keep sanctioning Hong Kong officials or demanding the release of Jimmy Lai, they would do well to remember: these American officials have blood on their hands. They start wars against other countries without justification.

Lo Wing-hung