The world has always worked this way. When crisis erupts in one place, opportunity knocks somewhere else. Disaster strikes in the West — and fortune smiles on the East.
The United States recklessly launched military strikes against Iran — and Iran hit back hard. Tehran not only blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, it also struck multiple Middle Eastern countries hosting US military bases, including Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Dubai was once a paradise for the global wealthy — scorching 40°C heat outside, pure extravagance inside. That world is now gone.
It started on February 28. Iranian drones struck Fairmont The Palm — a six-star hotel sitting on Dubai's iconic artificial Palm Island. Tourists suddenly understood a brutal truth: even the most lavish six-star hotels in Dubai had no missile defense protection.
Dubai International Airport was also hit. Massive fuel storage tanks exploded in fireballs visible from across the entire city. The airport shut down. The rich and powerful were trapped — and even tens of thousands of US dollars couldn't buy a seat out.
When Guns Fire, Property Dies
Don't think this has nothing to do with Hong Kong. Quite a few Hong Kong people own property in Dubai. A friend of a friend bought a flat there for tens of millions of dollars — when asked why, the answer was vague at best. Maybe Hong Kong people just love buying property: after London, why not Dubai?
The moment the gunfire started, Dubai's property market went into freefall — everyone wanted out at once. In just over ten days, the Dubai Real Estate Index (DFMRE) crashed 31.8%, plunging from 16,900 at month-end to 11,864 and wiping out every gain made this year. But even that staggering drop doesn't capture the full picture. Daily transaction volume collapsed from over 800 deals to just 23 — a 97% plunge. People desperate to sell simply can't find buyers. Some estimate prices would need to fall more than 70% to clear the market. Luxury hotel occupancy has dropped below 19%. Jumeirah Beach, once packed with tourists, now stands completely deserted.
What made Dubai so magnetic? Two things above all: taxes and neutrality. Dubai levies zero personal income tax — no matter whether it's salary, investment income, or rental income. Compare that to Hong Kong's 15% salaries tax. Dubai’s corporate tax sits at 9%, but profits below AED 375,000 (roughly HKD 830,000) are also taxed at zero, versus Hong Kong's 16.5% profits tax. Companies registered in designated free zones doing foreign business pay nothing at all. Add zero capital gains tax, zero investment income tax, and zero inheritance tax — Dubai was, in every sense of the word, a wealth haven.
Dubai is one of seven emirates in the UAE and the second-largest after Abu Dhabi. As oil revenue dried up, Dubai pivoted hard — pouring investment into finance, trade, real estate, and tourism as its new economic pillars.
Dubai's Formula Was Working
That strategy paid off spectacularly. Last year alone, nearly 10,000 millionaires relocated to Dubai, bringing an estimated US$63 billion in wealth with them.
Getting in was easy. Buy property worth over AED 2 million (about HKD 4.5 million), put down just 20%, hold temporary ownership papers — and you qualify for residency. When the Russia-Ukraine war erupted in 2022, an estimated 200,000 Russians poured into Dubai, transferring over US$20 billion in funds.
In short, Dubai sold prosperity, stability, and low taxes — and lived off what you might call "war dividends." When other countries fell into turmoil, people rushed to Dubai. Even Switzerland, once the gold standard of neutrality, effectively abandoned that status by joining Western sanctions against Russia in 2022. That decision only made Dubai look more attractive by comparison.
Now America has pulled the trigger — and Dubai has paid the price. Its sense of security evaporated overnight. The wealthy never imagined missiles would actually strike their hotel towers. As people flee, capital will follow. Investors are already predicting that Hong Kong and Singapore will emerge as the biggest winners.
Hong Kong Ready to Catch the Wave
Hong Kong's advantage is clear. The National Security Law, enacted in 2020, restored stability. Over the past two years, Hong Kong has rebuilt and expanded its financial markets — laying the foundation to absorb serious capital when the opportunity finally arrives.
The lesson this story teaches us is simple: safety and stability truly matter above all else.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
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" We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future " — George Bernard Shaw
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A recent interview with Secretary for Security Chris Tang called that line to mind. People always want to be wiser. But you never get there by replaying the past and refusing to face what's in front of you.
Secretary Tang noted that most of the young people arrested during the Black Riots incidents have now left prison. He believes the vast majority were incited by others and misled by false information, and that most have since expressed genuine remorse. For those incarcerated, authorities launched a programme called "Project PATH" — building their understanding of the nation and its history, offering career guidance, and encouraging positive thinking. Some participants have returned to school.
Secretary Tang also noted that for those arrested but not prosecuted, police have over the past year or two run dedicated outreach operations — working proactively within the legal framework to give this group a real chance to turn things around. The operational details are not suitable for public disclosure, but the aim is clear: a fresh start.
Security Bureau data through end of December last year shows 10,286 people were arrested in connection with the Black Riots. Of those, 2,978 have completed or are currently going through judicial proceedings, and 2,431 have been held legally accountable. That leaves 7,308 who were arrested but had yet to be prosecuted. Some have previously called for a blanket amnesty for everyone arrested at the time — but that was never a realistic option.
Because so many individuals involved in Black Riots cases have fled overseas, a large number of those cases remain unresolved — including some of the most serious ones. That backlog alone makes a blanket amnesty impossible.
The government, though, seems to have landed on a workable middle path: treating each case on its own terms, reaching out to individuals who have not been prosecuted through dedicated programmes, and arranging rehabilitation opportunities case by case.
A constructive way forward
For those already serving sentences, the government has pushed to help where it can. One case stands out: a university student at the time of his offence, he was arrested, imprisoned, and found on release that neither his alma mater nor any other university would take him back — afraid he would cause trouble again. A government official who learned of his situation looked into it, confirmed he had behaved well in prison and shown real remorse, and helped him secure a university place so he could continue with his education.
I have done some of this voluntary reintegration work myself. These are people who committed serious criminal acts in 2019, and many of them, reflecting on it now, say the same thing: they genuinely didn't know what was going on. They saw something online, acted on impulse, went out into the streets — and made a terrible mistake.
Many of them want to start over. What they fear is that society won't let them. Whether they are released prisoners who have served their time or people who were arrested but never charged, three paths lie ahead — and the choice is theirs.
First, if they truly cannot accept staying in Hong Kong, they can emigrate. Second, if they cannot stop themselves from causing trouble again, they will almost certainly face legal consequences once more. Third, they can rebuild their lives, take the right road, and own their future.
No matter what help others offer, the path is always your own to walk. But after seven years of what Hong Kong has been through, one thing is clear: at the crossroads, two very different groups of people are waiting — and they will lead you in completely opposite directions.
The first group: deceivers.
Seven years on, it is plain to see that the West — led by the United States — spent years agitating Hong Kong, stoking one radical political movement after another. The real goal was to incite Hong Kong people to bring down the SAR government, and ultimately the Central Government itself. Consider the elaborate operation Jimmy Lai ran. How many serving or former senior US officials were working behind the scenes? Court proceedings have already pulled back the curtain: former US Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz and former US Consul General to Hong Kong and Macau James Cunningham, both identified in proceedings served as advisers to Lai.
Then Donald Trump took office, and the illusions dissolved fast. Trump was blunt about it — MAGA cap on, American interests first, full stop. Democracy and freedom? Not his concern. Any government that crosses the United States or competes with it is a government he wants gone. If you staked your life on his cause, turned your back on your identity as Chinese, you had better have been ready for the bitter lesson that follows: you were always expendable.
Working in tandem from inside and out, Hong Kong had its own cast of barristers at the time, loudly urging Hong Kong people to follow Dr. Sun Yat-sen's example and launch a revolution — violence acceptable, they said. Today, every one of them is living well. At the decisive moment, they quietly stepped back. When the Hong Kong National Security Law took effect, they made a point of announcing, loudly, that they were out — a perfect illustration of the old saying: they are all for other people taking the risk, never themselves. If you put your trust in these deceivers, you paid a fool's price.
Second, family.
Hong Kong is our home. Choose to stay, and a family is here waiting for you. By choosing “family”, one needs to abide by the law, uphold stability, and keep Hong Kong moving forward. Consider how many places the United States has left in ruins — Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, and now Iran. If we want Hong Kong to avoid that fate, we have to put security and stability first.
It is my sincere hope that people of Hong Kong who were arrested but not yet prosecuted will turn over a new leaf. The government has provided pathways for them to do exactly that.
Lo Wing-hung
