Some often claim that "Hong Kong has moved from governance to prosperity, so there's no need to talk about national security every day." If they are not simply naïve, then they are clearly unaware of the complex international landscape.
On Monday (March 23), the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government published amendments to the Implementing Rules of Article 43 under the Law of the People's Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Drawing on practical experience enforcing the National Security Law, the government made key revisions to the Implementing Rules including several critical areas:
1.It added supplementary provisions concerning electronic devices and materials. The revised Rules changed police officers’ authority to request "materials" to explicitly include electronic forms. The term "designated evidence" of national security threats, originally defined as "any objects," now covers "anything," encompassing electronic messages. The scope of search locations explicitly includes "electronic equipment." Suspects who refuse to provide passwords for relevant electronic devices or who give false statements will be guilty of a criminal offense.
Today, vast amounts of illegal material are stored on electronic devices. Without specifying that electronic devices must be subject to investigation, loopholes could easily be exploited to deny inspection.
2. It clarified the meaning of "external forces." Concerning Schedule 5 regulating foreign organizations, the original Rules allowed requests for information from "foreign and Taiwan political organizations and foreign and Taiwan agents" about activities related to Hong Kong. The Revised Regulations changed this to allow requests from "external political organizations and agents of external forces" regarding such activities.
Expanded Definitions and Enforcement Powers
The original rules targeted only "foreign and Taiwanese" political organizations and their agents. The "Revised Regulations" now expand the scope to "external political organizations" or "external forces." This change allows authorities to comprehensively crack down on disguised foreign forces—even if they do not appear to be foreign or Taiwanese groups on the surface.
The new revision grants customs officers the power to confiscate items suspected of seditious intent. Previously, only the Secretary for Justice, the Secretary for Security, or police officers could freeze, restrict, seize, or confiscate property linked to crimes endangering national security. The "Revised Regulations" add customs authorities, empowering customs officers to inspect items reasonably suspected of fomenting sedition at entry and exit points, and establish a streamlined process to confiscate such materials. This strengthens controls against smuggled seditious goods entering Hong Kong.
When announcing the "Revised Regulations," the HKSAR government emphasized that safeguarding national security is an ongoing effort with no endpoint. Amid the complex and evolving geopolitical landscape, Hong Kong faces national security risks that can emerge suddenly and unpredictably. The government must therefore remain vigilant, continuously enhance the legal framework and enforcement mechanisms, and promptly prevent and resolve emerging security threats. The "Revised Regulations" build on valuable experience accumulated by Hong Kong in safeguarding national security.
Ongoing Vigilance in a Turbulent World
The world today is engulfed in conflict and war, with the United States often acting as the provocateur. Venezuelan President Maduro was abducted during a U.S. incursion, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated—both countries reveal serious national security vulnerabilities. Every nation or region risks infiltration by foreign forces; Hong Kong could become a national security weak spot. Continuous learning from practical experience, identifying legal loopholes, and adopting advanced measures are essential to ensure Hong Kong’s defenses remain airtight.
Global turmoil proves that no place is truly safe or immune to interference. Once disorder erupts, anywhere can turn into a battlefield. Consider Lebanon, now largely reduced to ruins. This small country of six million once thrived after its 1943 independence, earning the nickname "Paris of the Middle East." But by 1975, outside forces had infiltrated, sparking a civil war between Christian and Islamic factions that has dragged on, leaving devastation in its wake. This is a stark warning—constant vigilance must be our watchword.
Lo Wing-hung
Bastille Commentary
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
"It's the economy, stupid!" This phrase comes from Bill Clinton’s 1992 US presidential campaign.
At that time, President George H.W. Bush enjoyed high approval for winning the Gulf War, but the US economy had slipped into recession. Clinton’s strategist, James Carville, zeroed in on this vulnerability, posting the slogan "It's the economy, stupid!" on the campaign headquarters wall. It mocked the idea that no matter how dazzling a candidate’s foreign policy victories, voters ultimately cared most about their economic well-being—what was on their dinner table.
Trump ignited this Middle East conflict, which is now spiraling out of control, and once again, the underlying problem remains the economy.
An Energy War
First, an energy war. On March 18, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, triggering a major blaze and severe damage. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard quickly issued an urgent warning, declaring five oil and gas facilities across Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar as legitimate targets. It threatened attacks within hours and urged civilians in the region to evacuate.
Iran soon launched large-scale missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City oil and gas facilities. According to Qatar, Iran fired five missiles, with their defense systems intercepting four; one landed and caused a significant fire. Qatar condemned Iran’s attack on this industrial hub as a serious escalation.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard released a statement calling the operation a direct and equal retaliation for earlier attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. The stated goal was to target “you (the US) and your allies' energy infrastructure”.
The Guard emphasized Iran initially sought to avoid expanding the war into the energy sector or harming neighboring economies, but provocations forced the conflict into a “new phase.” Their statement warned if attacks persist, Iran will widen strikes to all energy infrastructure belonging to US and Israel allies until they are completely destroyed.
Trump clearly understands the gravity of the situation. US officials say he was warned in advance about Israel’s planned attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field and expressed support, aiming to send a message to Iran in response to its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But these officials add that Trump believes Iran has already received the message, so he currently opposes Israel continuing attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Trump appears powerless against Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel has seized the moment to escalate the conflict. When Iran retaliated similarly against Qatar’s gas fields, Trump resisted further escalation, fearing widespread panic.
In fact, the crisis already threatens multiple Middle Eastern economies. On March 18, the UAE Central Bank launched a massive liquidity injection, approving a plan to stabilize its banking sector with funds totaling 1 trillion UAE dirhams—an enormous $270 billion bailout. This reveals how seriously the UAE views the risks as the crisis deepens.
An Economic War
Second, an economic war is underway. Militarily, Iran ranks as a third-tier power, so it fights the US by pushing up oil prices to strike back economically. Its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sent international oil prices soaring, with US oil futures hitting a high of $99, driving US inflation higher.
As expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its March 18 meeting, but markets now focus on the Fed’s outlook for rate cuts this year. The Fed’s dot plot forecast remains unchanged, projecting one cut in 2026 and another in 2027. Although the forecast is stable, the market had expected two cuts in 2024, possibly starting as soon as June—expectations now seem very unlikely.
The Fed raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, expecting it to ease to 2.2% in 2027. After the meeting, many financial institutions adjusted their outlooks, pushing back the anticipated date of the first rate cut from June to September or October, predicting only one cut this year. Analysts believe the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, pushing oil prices higher and stoking inflation fears, is forcing the Fed to adopt a more cautious monetary policy. The chances of US rate cuts are fading, with global economic repercussions that extend to Hong Kong
Since last year, Hong Kong's property market has bounced back from its low point. Without the outbreak of the Iran war and if the Federal Reserve had started cutting interest rates as early as June, Hong Kong would likely have followed with rate cuts, potentially driving property prices even higher. Now, with the odds of rate cuts diminished, the property market faces renewed pressure.
Trump has launched a conflict in Iran that he cannot control. Does this fool still fail to see that the problem lies squarely in the economy? Even George H.W. Bush, who triumphed in the 1991 Iraq War, confronted such a dilemma—how much more difficult for the blundering Trump?
Lo Wing-hung
