In the classic wuxia novel The Heaven Sword and Dragon Saber, the Golden-Haired Lion King's signature move is the "Seven Injury Fist" – devastating in power, yet self-wounding by design: for every seven points of damage dealt to the enemy, the user suffers three.
Trump unleashes the "Seven Injury Fist" against Iran, blockading its ports. Iran strikes back decisively, tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The result: America harms itself, and the global economy bleeds from within.
Trump is now trapped in a three-way deadlock with no good options left. He is unleashing this very fist against Iran – wielding economic strangulation through blockade. But the consequences may well invert the ratio entirely, injuring himself seven points for every three inflicted on Tehran, while the global economy hemorrhages from within. This is a textbook case of mutually assured destruction.
Blinded by arrogance, Trump presses on to save face. Nobel Prize-winning economist Krugman has already named the likely outcome: Iran will emerge stronger than before the war, and America will be left weaker.
By 1 May, the US-Iran war will have lasted 60 days. Trump boasted at the outset that the conflict would be over in two to three weeks. Instead, he has sunk into a quagmire of "no fighting, no talking, no withdrawing." His cards are few, yet he cannot admit defeat.
His only move is the "blockade play" – squeezing Iran's economic lifeline in hopes of forcing submission. The Wall Street Journal reports that at recent meetings – including a Monday session in the White House Situation Room to assess the war's progress – Trump settled on one course of action from several options: maintaining the interdiction of oil tankers and cargo vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports, striking at the country's jugular. He believes Iran's economy is on the verge of collapse, and that this move can force its "surrender" at lower risk than either resuming bombing or withdrawing entirely.
Trump genuinely believes this gambit will work. A White House spokesperson, responding to the Wall Street Journal, stated: "Thanks to the successful blockade of Iranian ports, the United States has maximum leverage over the regime." The strategic logic is clear: sustain the blockade long enough, and Iran will crack under pressure and be compelled to accept all of Washington's demands.
Comparatively speaking, this is indeed Trump's best choice within an impossible trilemma. A unilateral withdrawal now would be tantamount to surrender – he would have no face left to show his own people, and the Republican Party would suffer even heavier losses in the midterm elections. Resuming military operations, on the other hand, would invite Iranian retaliation, dragging the conflict into an endless spiral. The blockade carries fewer immediate downsides.
The real question is whether Iran will buckle under the pressure – or hit back hard. Judging by the tone of Iranian officials in recent days, the latter seems far more likely.
Iran's fundamental position is non-negotiable: control over the Strait of Hormuz must be maintained at all costs. The Strait is Tehran's trump card against the United States – the decisive factor in this war. Supreme Leader Mojtaba has already issued his directive: the blockade of the Strait must continue. The harder America tightens its grip on Iranian ports, the more fiercely Iran clings to the Strait. With both sides dug in, the prospect of full navigation being restored grows ever more remote.
Trump's "Seven Injury Fist" has wounded more than just Iran – the global economy is hemorrhaging from within. Since the Strait was blockaded, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day have been cut off from world markets. With no end to the closure in sight, oil prices have surged again in recent days. Brent crude rose 7% today to US$119.50 per barrel – its highest level since June 2022 – completely erasing the earlier declines that followed a temporary ceasefire.
Soaring oil prices are battering every sector of the economy, fueling inflation and driving up interest rates. The International Monetary Fund has already revised its global growth forecast down to 3.1%. Should oil prices remain elevated, that figure could fall further to 2.5%. The World Bank has also warned that energy prices could rise 24% this year, significantly heightening the risk of recession.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Krugman predicts that after Trump's assault, he will have no more cards left to play , and Iran will emerge stronger than before the war, while America is left weakened.
Trump's recklessness has cost the world dearly, and Nobel Prize-winning economist Krugman is growing increasingly furious. In an article titled "The Oil Crisis Deepens, the World Economy in Peril", Krugman argues that if Persian Gulf oil supplies continue to fall, sufficient "demand destruction" must occur to bring consumption in line with supply. That process, he warns, will inflict enormous economic damage. The outlook, he states, is genuinely alarming.
Krugman attributes this catastrophe squarely to Trump's overweening arrogance. "His fragile sense of self-worth depends on constantly believing that he’s a winner while others are losers," Krugman writes. "Now he’s faced with the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to humiliating strategic defeat."
As for how things might unfold, Krugman poses a pointed question: "How long will it take before Trump accepts the reality that he doesn’t have the cards, that in the end his Iran venture will be resolved in a way that leaves Iran stronger and America weaker than before the war?" At this stage of the US-Iran war, many would argue that Krugman's prediction is no longer a question mark. It looks like an outcome all but certain to come true.
Lai Ting-yiu
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The US-Iran peace talks are turning into a roller coaster. Last Friday, Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lifting global hopes, but Trump quickly turned up the heat by declaring that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ships and ports “will remain in full force”. Iran then hardened its position at once, saying it would resume control of the strait.
In the space of two days, the whole picture changed, throwing fresh turbulence into the negotiations. Earlier this week, US Marines forcibly seized an Iranian cargo ship, pushing tensions even higher and bringing a new round of conflict to the brink.
Iran and the US now look set for a head-on clash, because whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz will hold the upper hand in this struggle. Tehran sees the waterway as a long-term trump card for resisting the US and rebuilding the country, so it clings to it tightly and will not hesitate to fight another hard battle over it.
US forces are blockading the Strait of Hormuz and intercepting Iranian vessels, supercharging the fight for control. With a fresh clash looming, peace talks face a dark, uncertain future.
For Iran, the key to victory or defeat in this campaign is whether it can keep a firm grip on the strait. That is why it will not yield a single inch. This logic has already been visible in the series of moves it made after the war began. In an April 3 article examining the US-Iran war, The Wall Street Journal quoted Vali Nasr, a Johns Hopkins University professor and former senior State Department official who has crossed swords with Iranian officials. He said: “Now, the only reason why they are surviving this war is because of the strait. The Iranian thinking is that, at the end, the strait must remain under their control because it is their only deterrence and only source of revenue.”
To keep hold of this “weapon of mass destruction” over the long run, Iran has already introduced legislation in parliament. The aim is to write toll collection in the strait into law and explicitly bar non-friendly countries from passing through.
The Wall Street Journal also interviewed another senior fellow familiar with Iranian thinking, Hassan. His reading is that if Iran controls the strait, it could in future impose selective sanctions on any country and choke off shipping through the waterway at will. That would give Tehran an open-ended bargaining chip. Even if Iran suffers heavy damage in the current war, it would still retain the capacity to threaten enemy states.
That hardline strategy is clearly taking shape. In an interview with the BBC today, Ebrahim Azizi, a member of parliament and former Revolutionary Guards commander, said bluntly: “Iran's successful ‘weaponization’ of the strait is one of our key assets against the enemy.” Iran therefore intends to keep a tight hold on the power to decide which ships may pass. In other words, it wants this waterway fully under its command from now on. A scholar at the University of Tehran said the government sees the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s main strategic lever, and that control over it is a red line that cannot be crossed.
Trump plainly sees what Iran is trying to do. He also knows that if the US loses control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will come out the loser in this war. So he panicked and rushed into a hardline response, declaring a US military blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. More, he sent Marines to board and seize an Iranian cargo ship for the first time.
But the blockade is already showing cracks because the decision was made in haste. First, US naval vessels can only carry out interceptions in international waters far from the shores of the strait, so as to avoid Iranian attack, and that makes the operation look weak. Second, the US military cannot stop Iran’s own blockade moves. The initiative over which ships may pass remains firmly in Iranian hands. For example, the US military has no effective answer if Iran lays mines in the strait.
By continuing to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can afford to sit back and wait for the enemy to tire. It is playing a long game against the US, waiting for the right moment to strike. Trump, by contrast, now has a major headache. If the strait stays closed to navigation, oil prices are bound to surge. That will hit the US economy harder and drive up political pressure on him. He originally wanted to wrap up peace talks quickly and pull himself out of the war. Now the fight over control of the strait threatens to drag the conflict out and even intensify it, making a clean exit more remote than ever.
Faced with this mess, Trump convened an emergency meeting in the White House Situation Room yesterday. He brought together Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Bessent to discuss how to deal with the impasse. But finding a smart way out will be anything but easy.
Before this latest war with Iran broke out, the Strait of Hormuz had long enjoyed free passage and relative calm. But Trump misread the situation. He thought he could smash Iran with one blow, yet instead he forced a cornered adversary to fight back. That pushed Tehran to unleash its ultimate weapon by blockading the strait, and to move at the same time toward making its control permanent. It is a consequence Trump clearly did not see coming.
Trump’s war has pushed Iran to seize the strait and lock down permanent control. By forcing Tehran's hand, he has shot himself squarely in the foot.
Trump’s habit of shooting himself in the foot has once again produced a bitter result. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently said in a US media interview that every tabletop exercise on a US-Iran conflict during her time in office predicted Iran would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Joint Chiefs Chairman Keane had also warned before the war began that Iran was highly likely to take that step. Yet Trump chose war on instinct and ignored the trump card in Iran’s hand. That is how he ended up trapped in today’s disorder.
The most painful part is that the deadlock over control of the strait remains unresolved, while peace talks have once again hit a roadblock. Whether the two sides can return to the table is now highly uncertain. In the meantime, the world is still being forced to pay the price for Trump’s reckless war.
Lai Ting-yiu
