The Financial War Behind Hormuz

US-Iran talks had raised hopes that the clouds of war might ease a little, but after 21 hours of negotiations produced nothing, the meeting was abruptly called off and the faint glimmer of hope quickly vanished.

The worst part is that Trump has gone into a fresh rage, announcing that the US Navy will block the Strait of Hormuz; any vessel that pays transit fees to Iran and uses its ports will not be allowed to enter or leave.
 
The IRGC immediately responded forcefully, and the conflict is clearly escalating. The sudden turn has a reason. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who studies century-long shifts in hegemony, posted that in this geopolitical contest the financial battlefield is just as fierce: Whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz wins this war, because over the long term, it threatens the dollar’s status. That makes it easier to see why Trump suddenly blew up.
 
After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, two developments made Trump deeply uneasy and convinced him they had to be checked.
 
First, Iran seized the opportunity to boost oil exports and set prices in yuan. Beyond opening new revenue channels and helping pay for the war, that also deliberately lifted the profile of the “oil yuan.”
 
Second, charging foreign vessels transit fees in yuan likewise strengthens the renminbi and works as a substitute for the dollar, building momentum for this new financial order. Trump clearly sees that this trend threatens the dollar’s status; if the gap keeps widening, the fallout could be endless.
 
Dalio views the Hormuz dispute through that lens and says the fight has already moved beyond control of a trade route, because signs point to a shift in the international financial system. He cited a comment by former IMF chief economist Rogoff, saying that if Iran and China gain the upper hand in buying oil with yuan and paying transit fees, more countries will be encouraged, in order to avoid US financial sanctions, to speed up a move away from the dollar and diversify into financial systems outside the dollar sphere.
 
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, Rogoff put it even more bluntly, saying that “At one level, Iran is aiming to poke its thumb in the United States’s eye, adding insult to injury. At another level, Iran is dead serious about preferring yuan to avoid US sanctions and to cultivate its ally, China.”

Beyond collecting transit fees in yuan, Iran is also selling large volumes of exported oil to China at discounted prices, mainly in yuan-denominated transactions. Rogoff believes that if Iran and China win out on this front, it will push other countries to diversify their investments and gradually break away from the dollar-based financial system. He said his long-held view is that “the dollar’s dominance has already peaked.”
 
Yuan Oil Challenges Dollar
According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Iranian crude oil and condensate exports averaged about 1.7 million barrels per day in March, topping neighboring Iraq. Before Trump announced yesterday that he would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, experts inside the government had already pushed the hard-line plan to cut Iran’s economic lifeline.
 
Trump’s deployment of troops to block the Strait of Hormuz serves two goals. It aims to stop Iran from exporting oil for profit and to prevent it from charging transit fees to ships from other countries. On the surface, the move is about cutting off Iran’s revenue and showing the world that “I’m in charge here.” But the deeper calculation is to stop the rise of the “petro-yuan,” which could eventually threaten the “petrodollar.” If that trend is not stopped early, the fallout could be long-lasting.
 
But Trump’s move is a dangerous gamble. The New York Times notes that a naval blockade is an act of war and could trigger serious consequences. In fact, senior Revolutionary Guard officials have already warned: “Any wrong move will drag the enemy (the United States) into a deadly whirlpool in the strait.” The military has also deployed missile batteries along the shores of the Strait of Hormuz, and US warships taking part in the blockade mission face the risk of attack.
 
Will Trump, because of the “financial war” behind the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz, be willing to use force again? Or will he once again pull a TACO, all bluster and no action, then back down? That will be what the world watches over the next few days. 

Trump has ordered the Navy to block the Strait of Hormuz, and behind this struggle for control of the strait is a “financial war.”

Iran is demanding payment in yuan for transit fees through the strait, and selling oil in yuan as well; in the long run, this poses a certain threat to the dollar’s status.

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A massive upheaval has turned France upside down. Emmanuel Macron's government badly misjudged the situation beforehand and failed to contain the unrest, and it took a huge political hit.

France Caught Off Guard

Once the storm passed, several mysteries remained. Why did a student protest spiral into full-scale rioting? Who was pulling the strings? Luxury stores were looted, and every sign points to someone orchestrating events from behind the scenes. Could organized crime be involved?

On the first mystery, the Financial Times has named the culprit: a mysterious squad of "men in black." Their methods, tactics and equipment are strikingly similar to those of Hong Kong's black-clad rioters of years past. The difference? The French squad is still active on the protest front lines, while its Hong Kong counterparts have vanished without a trace.

FT: mysterious 'men in black' squad behind France riots. Similar to what Hong Kong had experienced.

The French police made their biggest blunder last time by underestimating the crowds. They deployed just 2,350 officers around Paris. That left them vastly outnumbered by the troublemakers, completely on the back foot and powerless to control the situation.

Worse still, the police misjudged who they were up against. Their opponent was a black-clad squad with real tactics, strong organization, ample equipment and hard-earned riot experience. Traditional policing simply could not cope.

Inside the Black Bloc

The Financial Times has unmasked the background of this 'squad.' They have no formal organization. They have surfaced at major demonstrations before, bearing the name 'Black Bloc.'

This time, the group swarmed into the protest ranks in large numbers. Their hallmarks: black clothing, masked faces, gas masks and goggles, plus iron rods and petrol bombs. Full gear, ready for violent destruction.

On the ground, during the mass demonstrations, they moved with practiced skill. They built barricades to block roads, dug up paving bricks and hurled them at police, and set fires with petrol bombs, smashing and wrecking wherever they went.

They organized through social platforms and messaging apps, moving fluidly, much like an orchestra without a conductor in which every player knows exactly how to position and coordinate. The police, by contrast, stuck to traditional tactics. They held a single defensive line and stayed on the back foot the whole time.

Anarchists Without Leaders

The Black Bloc has no hierarchy, no leadership and no party ties, the report said. But its ideology is crystal clear. It preaches anarchism, opposes capitalism and glorifies attacking the establishment by radical means, including violence. Its membership is now estimated at 5,000.

The group first rose in Germany in the 1980s. It later hoisted the anti-globalization banner and incited riots at several demonstrations. It mobilized during the 1999 WTO summit and the 2007 G8 summit, leaving those cities in an uproar.

That leaderless setup is the group's best armor. With no ringleaders to hunt down, police find it hard to break the organization apart.

So to this day, the Black Bloc stays active across protest movements, waiting for its chance to stir trouble.

Echoes of Hong Kong

After reading the Financial Times report, a friend noticed how closely the Black Bloc resembled Hong Kong's black-clad rioters in 2019. The similarity led him to suspect that the two groups had long maintained some kind of connection, and that the riot methods and tactics had been transplanted to Hong Kong.

Fortunately, Hong Kong's "men in black" have since disappeared without a trace. Whether the "brothers and sisters" who fled to the United Kingdom will travel to France to join their ranks remains unknown.

The Looting Mystery

Another mystery hangs over these riots: did a crime syndicate plan and direct the looting of luxury stores? The authorities still have no hard proof. But the signs are hard to miss.

First, once the luxury stores were hit, large batches of expensive goods surfaced online for sale within an extremely short time. That points to a behind-the-scenes organization taking in bulk stolen goods, then moving them fast through 'fencing channels.' It does not look like the work of individual teenage robbers.

Second, French law enforcement authorities strongly suspect that a criminal syndicate used the unrest to incite teenagers in poor neighborhoods to loot. It then quietly took in the stolen goods behind the scenes and sold them below market price for huge profits.

Organized crime behind luxury store lootings, goods fenced fast.

A Lesson for Police

These two mysteries expose just how fragile and slack France's security system really is. Riot control and robbery prevention both fall short, and the gaps are everywhere.

By comparison, the Hong Kong Police Force is more than a cut above.

Still, the police would do well to treat France's chaos as a cautionary tale.

Lai Ting-yiu