US-Iran talks had raised hopes that the clouds of war might ease a little, but after 21 hours of negotiations produced nothing, the meeting was abruptly called off and the faint glimmer of hope quickly vanished.
The worst part is that Trump has gone into a fresh rage, announcing that the US Navy will block the Strait of Hormuz; any vessel that pays transit fees to Iran and uses its ports will not be allowed to enter or leave.
The IRGC immediately responded forcefully, and the conflict is clearly escalating. The sudden turn has a reason. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who studies century-long shifts in hegemony, posted that in this geopolitical contest the financial battlefield is just as fierce: Whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz wins this war, because over the long term, it threatens the dollar’s status. That makes it easier to see why Trump suddenly blew up.
After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, two developments made Trump deeply uneasy and convinced him they had to be checked.
First, Iran seized the opportunity to boost oil exports and set prices in yuan. Beyond opening new revenue channels and helping pay for the war, that also deliberately lifted the profile of the “oil yuan.”
Second, charging foreign vessels transit fees in yuan likewise strengthens the renminbi and works as a substitute for the dollar, building momentum for this new financial order. Trump clearly sees that this trend threatens the dollar’s status; if the gap keeps widening, the fallout could be endless.
Dalio views the Hormuz dispute through that lens and says the fight has already moved beyond control of a trade route, because signs point to a shift in the international financial system. He cited a comment by former IMF chief economist Rogoff, saying that if Iran and China gain the upper hand in buying oil with yuan and paying transit fees, more countries will be encouraged, in order to avoid US financial sanctions, to speed up a move away from the dollar and diversify into financial systems outside the dollar sphere.
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, Rogoff put it even more bluntly, saying that “At one level, Iran is aiming to poke its thumb in the United States’s eye, adding insult to injury. At another level, Iran is dead serious about preferring yuan to avoid US sanctions and to cultivate its ally, China.”
Beyond collecting transit fees in yuan, Iran is also selling large volumes of exported oil to China at discounted prices, mainly in yuan-denominated transactions. Rogoff believes that if Iran and China win out on this front, it will push other countries to diversify their investments and gradually break away from the dollar-based financial system. He said his long-held view is that “the dollar’s dominance has already peaked.”
Yuan Oil Challenges Dollar
According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Iranian crude oil and condensate exports averaged about 1.7 million barrels per day in March, topping neighboring Iraq. Before Trump announced yesterday that he would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, experts inside the government had already pushed the hard-line plan to cut Iran’s economic lifeline.
Trump’s deployment of troops to block the Strait of Hormuz serves two goals. It aims to stop Iran from exporting oil for profit and to prevent it from charging transit fees to ships from other countries. On the surface, the move is about cutting off Iran’s revenue and showing the world that “I’m in charge here.” But the deeper calculation is to stop the rise of the “petro-yuan,” which could eventually threaten the “petrodollar.” If that trend is not stopped early, the fallout could be long-lasting.
But Trump’s move is a dangerous gamble. The New York Times notes that a naval blockade is an act of war and could trigger serious consequences. In fact, senior Revolutionary Guard officials have already warned: “Any wrong move will drag the enemy (the United States) into a deadly whirlpool in the strait.” The military has also deployed missile batteries along the shores of the Strait of Hormuz, and US warships taking part in the blockade mission face the risk of attack.
Will Trump, because of the “financial war” behind the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz, be willing to use force again? Or will he once again pull a TACO, all bluster and no action, then back down? That will be what the world watches over the next few days.
Trump has ordered the Navy to block the Strait of Hormuz, and behind this struggle for control of the strait is a “financial war.”
Iran is demanding payment in yuan for transit fees through the strait, and selling oil in yuan as well; in the long run, this poses a certain threat to the dollar’s status.
What Say You?
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
America's press-freedom myth just took a serious hit. The Justice Department has subpoenaed four New York Times reporters over an alleged violation of federal criminal law. The FBI has opened its own investigation. Both moves target the paper's exposé on inadequate anti-missile defenses aboard the president's new plane.
Defense Secretary Hegseth unveils "mole-hunt squad," vowing to root out leakers feeding reporters.
The White House has long nursed grudges against the press. Now, in a fury, it has escalated from threats to outright intimidation, deploying subpoenas and detentions alike. As the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire. Someone inside government must be leaking, and that conviction pushed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to announce a special task force. Working hand-in-hand with the Justice Department, the task force aims to root out the "moles."
The showdown between the White House and the press is only heating up, and the real fireworks may still lie ahead.
Trump's sudden switch to the old Air Force One after NATO sparked media exposés, igniting his fury and a subpoena crackdown.
The Plane-Swap Spark
The trigger behind this clash was the so-called "plane-swap incident." After Trump wrapped up the NATO summit in Turkey, his security team abruptly switched him onto the old Air Force One for departure. He skipped the new plane gifted by Qatar entirely, and that alone raised eyebrows.
The New York Times soon reported why. The new aircraft's missile-defense systems were inadequate, the paper said, posing a security risk that forced officials to fall back on the old plane. The White House flatly denied the report, and Trump reportedly flew into a rage. The Justice Department wasted no time, issuing subpoenas to the paper's reporters almost immediately.
There is more to this story. FBI agents reportedly showed up at the New York Times offices before the story even went to print. They demanded the paper pull the piece and reveal its sources.
The paper's leadership flatly refused. In response, the Justice Department broke with convention. Rather than identifying the leaker first, it went straight after the reporters with subpoenas, escalating pressure on the press.
This is not the first time the White House has tried to put reporters in the hot seat. Back in April, a US Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iranian airspace and the pilot went missing after ejecting. Both the New York Times and Axios covered the story.
Iran's military happened to launch a massive search operation around the same time. Whether the two events were connected remains unclear. Still, Trump was quick to blame the media, threatening to jail both the reporters and the leaker.
The White House apparently could not find hard evidence, so it ultimately took no action. That failure only deepened its resentment toward the press, and officials waited for the right moment to strike back hard. This time, the plane-swap incident gave the administration its pretext to wield the legal hammer, and it is determined to teach reporters a lesson they will not forget.
The Pentagon's "Mole Hunt"
The crackdown on "moles" by the Defense Department and the Justice Department has also ramped up. Hegseth posted a video on X yesterday announcing that the Pentagon has teamed up with the Justice Department to form a special task force. Its mission: hunt down whoever has been feeding information to the media, and anyone caught with solid evidence will face the full force of the law.
He said the Pentagon's Office of General Counsel can now require any department unit to hand over information and records tied to leak investigations within 48 hours. Full cooperation is mandatory, with no room for delay or evasion. He also issued a stern warning, declaring that "access to confidential and secret information is a sacred trust, and those who betray that trust will be met with the full force of the law".
Both Hegseth and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche are die-hard Trump loyalists. That alone signals this crackdown comes directly from Trump himself, and it is designed to make heads roll, with some officials facing criminal charges. Even without hard evidence, suspects are still likely to be pushed out of their jobs.
The Pentagon has done this before. Last year it investigated several leak cases, resulting in a number of officials being suspended, including Deputy Chief of Staff Darin Selnick and Senior Adviser Dan Caldwell. Both have since quietly disappeared from their posts.
A Hunt That Cannot Succeed
Some analysts point out a hard truth. Hegseth may be on the warpath, but the Pentagon's "mole problem" could prove impossible to fully stamp out. Since Trump's return and Hegseth's takeover of the Defense Department, internal personnel purges have stirred up widespread resentment, making it easy for reporters to find disgruntled insiders willing to talk. With so many potential leakers around, there is no way to seal every crack.
Hegseth himself is not exactly clean either. Shortly after taking office, he got caught up in the "Signalgate" scandal, leaking secret plans for a US strike on Houthi forces in a group chat. That controversy caused quite the uproar. Having broken the rules himself, how can he expect his subordinates to keep their mouths shut without complaint?
Perhaps the funniest comment came from a netizen who suggested the task force should start by investigating the bartender at Hegseth's favorite watering hole. Given his well-known fondness for drink, the odds of him spilling military secrets over a few rounds are hardly low. In the end, they might just discover that the real "leaker" was Hegseth all along.
