Trump Trapped: Israel Plots to Sink Iran Talks — and the Money Spigot Is Next

Whether a genuine US-Iran ceasefire can be achieved depends entirely on the negotiations now underway. US Vice President Vance arrived in Switzerland Sunday morning; Iran's representatives were already on the ground ahead of him. One of the first thorny issues both sides must resolve is the Lebanon ceasefire — a knot that will not be easy to untangle. Israel has continued to "play games" right up to today, threatening to torpedo the talks at any moment.

VP Vance flew to Switzerland for US-Iran talks on Sunday — but not before furiously rebuking Israel for plotting to torpedo the deal.

The Washington Post has revealed that a US intelligence report warned Trump that Prime Minister Netanyahu, under intense domestic pressure, would quietly work to sabotage any US-Iran peace deal. Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of Global Times, has also noted that Netanyahu is adopting a "scorched earth" posture, and that this new test Trump faces is no less daunting than dealing with Iran itself.

At the same time, America's "Jewish lobby" is pushing hard to prevent Trump from making concessions to Iran. These groups are threatening to cut off campaign funding ahead of the midterm elections. A headache Trump can ill afford to ignore.

Netanyahu and his far-right allies are openly defying Trump, bombing Lebanon and blowing up the US-Iran agreement — leaving him trapped on all sides.

Like a dog off the leash: while the US and Iran talk, Israel keeps striking. Just as US and Iranian representatives sat down at the table, Israeli forces — in flagrant disregard of the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah — launched fierce airstrikes on southern Lebanon. Numerous residential buildings destroyed, and 16 people killed. Iran had already shut the Strait of Hormuz once in response to Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon; if Israel refuses to stand down, the talks could collapse at any moment.

That, however, is precisely what Israel wants. Its calculated "game-playing" aims to reignite the conflict. The Washington Post, citing a US intelligence report, states that Israel has no interest in a ceasefire and is determined to press its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon. A direct violation of a key provision amongst the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Specifically, the requirement of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump had already warned Israel to stop firing, but Israel continues to act all on its own. Its intent to wreck the agreement is in plain sight.

According to the intelligence report's analysis, this behavior is tied directly to Israel's domestic politics. Netanyahu faces a general election in October and must demonstrate to voters that he refuses to follow Trump's lead and will not withdraw from Lebanon. Any sign of weakness would be political suicide, and his hold on power would be finished.

Netanyahu's political survival is, in fact, directly tied to the Lebanon campaign. Domestic polls show that more than 70% of Israelis support continuing the strikes against Hezbollah. Opposition leaders competing against him have loudly declared that "the fighting must not stop." Netanyahu must therefore prove himself more resolute and more aggressive on the Lebanon question than any rival.

The Washington Post quoted a US official as saying that even if Israel does not escalate its airstrikes on Beirut, simply digging in and refusing to withdraw from southern Lebanon would be enough to shatter the fragile US-Iran agreement. In other words, if Trump cannot rein in Netanyahu, the US-Iran negotiations are in serious jeopardy.

To keep the US-Iran deal from collapsing, Trump has confronted Netanyahu on several occasions. He reportedly used profanity during one phone call and most recently singled out Israel for direct criticism at the G7 summit. But Netanyahu invariably turns around and carries on as before: openly flouting the Memorandum of Understanding and challenging the authority of Trump's own signature.

Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of Global Times, remarked that the US-Iran peace agreement had barely landed before it was slapped in the face. The one to deliver that heavy blow was none other than America's closest ally, Israel. "Netanyahu is adopting a 'scorched earth' posture," Hu wrote. "Trump and his team are facing an unprecedented test — one that is arguably no less severe than the hostility they previously faced from Iran."

Israel's leadership has grown increasingly brazen in its defiance of Trump, making no attempt to hide its “insubordination”. Far-right National Security Minister Ben Gvir openly declared that while Israel respects the United States, it must make clear to the world that "the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not up for bargaining" in the US-Iran negotiations. He went further, crowing that "all of Lebanon must burn".

Vice President Vance witnessed such arrogance from Israeli officials and responded with fury. "Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time," Vance thundered. "If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world."

Vance further pointed out that two-thirds of Israel's defensive weapons come from the United States, and that America provides Israel with $4 billion in military aid each year. The message was unmistakable: without US support, Israel would be finished.

But Ben Gvir did not back down. Instead he retorted with a barely veiled threat: "Anyone who supports us will benefit; anyone who abandons us will suffer. So don’t threaten us." The remark was loaded with belligerence.

Hu Xijin noted that such open, mutual attacks between the US presidential team and senior Israeli officials are unprecedented in the history of US-Israel relations. He believes Netanyahu and the far-right are attempting to drag out the peace process "until the agreement collapses entirely," ultimately carving out a path of survival for themselves.

Their audacity in defying Trump stems from two calculations. First, they know Washington would not dare to simply abandon such a critical regional pawn and surrender its leverage over Middle Eastern states. Second, the American "Jewish lobby" remains a major source of Republican campaign funding — cut off that money supply, and the consequences for the GOP would be severe.

The reality is stark. Following the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, major organizations representing Jewish influence — including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the American Jewish Committee (AJC) — voiced fierce opposition. They argued that going to war with Iran had failed to eliminate the Iranian military threat, and that the deal instead consolidates the regime's power. Behind these organizations are no shortage of major Republican donors, who are exploiting the approaching midterm elections to pressure Trump by threatening to cut off campaign funding.

With Israel's hawks and America's "Jewish lobby" squeezing Trump from without and within, he finds himself trapped in a new dilemma. If he cannot withstand the pressure from Israel, the Iran negotiations will collapse and everything reverts to square one — war will have to resume. Yet Israel, emboldened by its leverage, will not stop causing disruption, and containing it is far from easy.

Such is the greatest test Trump faces today.

Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

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People have their fortunes, and so do nations. The UK has watched its luck flatline in recent years, stumbling from one crisis to the next. Government leadership has turned into a revolving door, with prime ministers changing in the blink of an eye. Keir Starmer became the latest casualty this afternoon, announcing his resignation to become the sixth premier to abruptly quit within a decade.

It is a striking coincidence that tomorrow marks exactly the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum. A decade ago, pro-Brexit politicians like the "Blonde Bombshell" Boris Johnson hyped the departure to the heavens, whipping citizens into an emotional frenzy. That fervor pushed Brexit over the finish line by a razor-thin margin of about three percentage points.

The wild euphoria, however, quickly evaporated as the UK plunged into a "lost decade." Persistent economic sickness has eaten away at the nation's core strength, ultimately reducing the UK to a fading power.

Ten years post-Brexit, all-talk politicians like Boris Johnson reduced the UK to a fading power.

The reality is that Brexit has battered the British economy, a point underscored in the latest issue of The Economist. The magazine argues that the public must swallow these profound lessons and shatter the illusions manufactured by all-talk politicians to secure any real future. As Hong Kong embarks on its own path of transformation, it must view this disaster as a stark cautionary tale.

Ten years ago, on June 23, former Prime Minister David Cameron’s gamble on a "Brexit referendum" finally went to the polls. Citizens faced a stark choice: "Remain" or "Leave." Out of 33.5 million ballots cast, 51.9 percent backed Brexit against 48.1 percent who supported staying in the EU. That narrow 3.8 percentage point margin sealed the UK's messy divorce from the European continent.

This referendum was destined to run on raw passion rather than cold reason. The masterminds behind Brexit were showboating politicians armed with sensational slogans, led by the tousle-haired Mayor of London, Boris Johnson. Johnson was supposed to toe the Conservative Party line but executed a cynical U-turn shortly before the vote. Waving the Brexit flag as a rising political star, he supercharged the Leave camp's momentum and fanned the flames of populist anger.

All-talk politicians engineered this disaster, epitomized by "blond-haired boy" Boris Johnson's rise to Prime Minister.

Nigel Farage provided the other major driving force. Channeling a style similar to Donald Trump, Farage led the UK Independence Party in a crusade for Brexit. He deployed masterful demagoguery to harness mass outrage, cornering Cameron into fulfilling his referendum promise and shoving the UK onto the Brexit track. Recently, his Reform UK party has been riding high as a formidable political force by weaponizing anti-immigration stances—running the exact same playbook used to force Brexit.

While supporters threw wild celebrations after the Brexit victory, the government woke up to a mountain of problems. On the trade front, British goods heading to the EU became tangled in cumbersome customs checks, certificates of origin, and regulatory compliance procedures. A bureaucratic nightmare driving up trade costs, hammering small and medium enterprises while significantly weakening overall exports.

The pain extends deep into the labor market. A massive exodus of EU workers has triggered a severe shortage of both skilled technical talent and grassroots labor, further driving up operating costs for businesses across the board.

The financial sector's once-unrivaled competitiveness has steadily eroded in tandem. Multinational financial institutions have packed up and relocated to rival European hubs like Frankfurt, Paris, and Amsterdam, dealing a blow to London's elite status. To this day, the City of London has yet to recapture its pre-Brexit prosperity.

The UK has squandered a decade, and today's global landscape has radically shifted, as The Economist points out. The British government has carelessly thrown away its early advantages in AI development, leaving the nation permanently trailing the dominant position of the United States. A technological surrender that also breeds underlying security vulnerabilities.

Yet corporate investment in AI infrastructure still remains negligible, hampered by net-zero emission policies that restrict energy use and block the construction of essential data centers.

A sluggish economy and shrinking revenues have pushed government finances into a downward spiral. The debt-to-GDP ratio has skyrocketed to 94 percent, reaching heights not seen since the 1960s. With a budget deficit standing at 4.3 percent of GDP, the British government now shoulders the highest debt servicing costs of any G7 nation.

The all-talk politicians who orchestrated Brexit immersed citizens in a dangerous fantasy. They sold the illusion that the UK could "Take Back Control" overnight, but delivered a terrible, grueling decade instead. Many who cast a "Yes" vote have started to bitterly regret their choice.

A recent YouGov poll shows that 55 percent of surveyed Britons now support rejoining the EU, a figure that eclipses the original Leave vote from a decade ago. If a referendum were held today, a measure to rejoin the bloc would stand a massive chance of passing.

But referendums rarely offer a "Take Two." Would-be Voters are left with belated regret, forced to sigh in vain over a shattered economy. As The Economist rightly warned, the British people must absorb these bitter lessons before they can look to the future. They can no longer afford to wallow in the toxic illusions spun by radical politicians.

Britain’s lost decade serves as a stark negative example. As Hong Kong drives its future development, the city must heed this cautionary tale and avoid the trap of empty political rhetoric.

Lai Ting-yiu