Trump Trapped: Israel Plots to Sink Iran Talks — and the Money Spigot Is Next

Whether a genuine US-Iran ceasefire can be achieved depends entirely on the negotiations now underway. US Vice President Vance arrived in Switzerland Sunday morning; Iran's representatives were already on the ground ahead of him. One of the first thorny issues both sides must resolve is the Lebanon ceasefire — a knot that will not be easy to untangle. Israel has continued to "play games" right up to today, threatening to torpedo the talks at any moment.

VP Vance flew to Switzerland for US-Iran talks on Sunday — but not before furiously rebuking Israel for plotting to torpedo the deal.

The Washington Post has revealed that a US intelligence report warned Trump that Prime Minister Netanyahu, under intense domestic pressure, would quietly work to sabotage any US-Iran peace deal. Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of Global Times, has also noted that Netanyahu is adopting a "scorched earth" posture, and that this new test Trump faces is no less daunting than dealing with Iran itself.

At the same time, America's "Jewish lobby" is pushing hard to prevent Trump from making concessions to Iran. These groups are threatening to cut off campaign funding ahead of the midterm elections. A headache Trump can ill afford to ignore.

Netanyahu and his far-right allies are openly defying Trump, bombing Lebanon and blowing up the US-Iran agreement — leaving him trapped on all sides.

Like a dog off the leash: while the US and Iran talk, Israel keeps striking. Just as US and Iranian representatives sat down at the table, Israeli forces — in flagrant disregard of the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah — launched fierce airstrikes on southern Lebanon. Numerous residential buildings destroyed, and 16 people killed. Iran had already shut the Strait of Hormuz once in response to Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon; if Israel refuses to stand down, the talks could collapse at any moment.

That, however, is precisely what Israel wants. Its calculated "game-playing" aims to reignite the conflict. The Washington Post, citing a US intelligence report, states that Israel has no interest in a ceasefire and is determined to press its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon. A direct violation of a key provision amongst the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Specifically, the requirement of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Trump had already warned Israel to stop firing, but Israel continues to act all on its own. Its intent to wreck the agreement is in plain sight.

According to the intelligence report's analysis, this behavior is tied directly to Israel's domestic politics. Netanyahu faces a general election in October and must demonstrate to voters that he refuses to follow Trump's lead and will not withdraw from Lebanon. Any sign of weakness would be political suicide, and his hold on power would be finished.

Netanyahu's political survival is, in fact, directly tied to the Lebanon campaign. Domestic polls show that more than 70% of Israelis support continuing the strikes against Hezbollah. Opposition leaders competing against him have loudly declared that "the fighting must not stop." Netanyahu must therefore prove himself more resolute and more aggressive on the Lebanon question than any rival.

The Washington Post quoted a US official as saying that even if Israel does not escalate its airstrikes on Beirut, simply digging in and refusing to withdraw from southern Lebanon would be enough to shatter the fragile US-Iran agreement. In other words, if Trump cannot rein in Netanyahu, the US-Iran negotiations are in serious jeopardy.

To keep the US-Iran deal from collapsing, Trump has confronted Netanyahu on several occasions. He reportedly used profanity during one phone call and most recently singled out Israel for direct criticism at the G7 summit. But Netanyahu invariably turns around and carries on as before: openly flouting the Memorandum of Understanding and challenging the authority of Trump's own signature.

Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of Global Times, remarked that the US-Iran peace agreement had barely landed before it was slapped in the face. The one to deliver that heavy blow was none other than America's closest ally, Israel. "Netanyahu is adopting a 'scorched earth' posture," Hu wrote. "Trump and his team are facing an unprecedented test — one that is arguably no less severe than the hostility they previously faced from Iran."

Israel's leadership has grown increasingly brazen in its defiance of Trump, making no attempt to hide its “insubordination”. Far-right National Security Minister Ben Gvir openly declared that while Israel respects the United States, it must make clear to the world that "the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not up for bargaining" in the US-Iran negotiations. He went further, crowing that "all of Lebanon must burn".

Vice President Vance witnessed such arrogance from Israeli officials and responded with fury. "Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time," Vance thundered. "If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world."

Vance further pointed out that two-thirds of Israel's defensive weapons come from the United States, and that America provides Israel with $4 billion in military aid each year. The message was unmistakable: without US support, Israel would be finished.

But Ben Gvir did not back down. Instead he retorted with a barely veiled threat: "Anyone who supports us will benefit; anyone who abandons us will suffer. So don’t threaten us." The remark was loaded with belligerence.

Hu Xijin noted that such open, mutual attacks between the US presidential team and senior Israeli officials are unprecedented in the history of US-Israel relations. He believes Netanyahu and the far-right are attempting to drag out the peace process "until the agreement collapses entirely," ultimately carving out a path of survival for themselves.

Their audacity in defying Trump stems from two calculations. First, they know Washington would not dare to simply abandon such a critical regional pawn and surrender its leverage over Middle Eastern states. Second, the American "Jewish lobby" remains a major source of Republican campaign funding — cut off that money supply, and the consequences for the GOP would be severe.

The reality is stark. Following the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, major organizations representing Jewish influence — including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the American Jewish Committee (AJC) — voiced fierce opposition. They argued that going to war with Iran had failed to eliminate the Iranian military threat, and that the deal instead consolidates the regime's power. Behind these organizations are no shortage of major Republican donors, who are exploiting the approaching midterm elections to pressure Trump by threatening to cut off campaign funding.

With Israel's hawks and America's "Jewish lobby" squeezing Trump from without and within, he finds himself trapped in a new dilemma. If he cannot withstand the pressure from Israel, the Iran negotiations will collapse and everything reverts to square one — war will have to resume. Yet Israel, emboldened by its leverage, will not stop causing disruption, and containing it is far from easy.

Such is the greatest test Trump faces today.

Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

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The US war on Iran is a broken record: strike, pause, strike again. Even Donald Trump can't find the off switch. But the real tragedy is playing out at sea. Thousands of sailors and airmen are trapped on carriers in brutal conditions. No return date. No escape. Their minds are fraying. Lives hang by a thread.

250-day deployment, no return date — sailors cracking, jumping overboard

Now US media reports a nightmare unfolding on the USS Abraham Lincoln. Sailors, driven insane by the endless confinement, tried to jump overboard. They wanted to end it all in the churning sea. Crew members stopped them just in time. They were saved from becoming lost souls in the angry waves.

More than 200 family members learned the truth and exploded. They confronted senior Navy officials, accusing them of treating sailors like disposable parts. The firestorm is just getting started. It will rage hotter. And it will eventually burn Trump himself.

The USS Abraham Lincoln left San Diego on November 21 last year. It loitered in the Indo-Pacific, then steamed to the Middle East just before the Iran war erupted.

That was more than 250 days ago. Since then, the carrier has barely touched land. A few days in Guam. A few in Oman. The rest of the time? Endless sea. And still, no return date.

For the 5,000-plus sailors on board, the agony goes beyond not knowing when they'll see home. The ship itself is falling apart. Toilets clog. Showers grow mold. Washing machines are dead. Even drinking water and food rations have been cut. This is daily life. It is inhumane.

Add relentless combat missions to the mix. The pressure is simply crushing. Everyone feels like they're trapped in a pressure cooker. Their mental state? On the brink of collapse.

Families Confront the Navy

The families had heard about the hardships onboard. They reached their breaking point. Last weekend, more than 200 of them held a grievance meeting in San Diego, angrily confronting Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao.

Hundreds of families grilled Hung Cao. Firestorm heads for Trump

A family member named Loma spoke through tears. Her husband was one of the sailors who tried to jump overboard to commit suicide. He was rescued, pulled from duty, and is now in treatment. The ship's grievance department reached out once. Then silence. She's had only a few brief words with her husband since.

Another family member told another horror. Her husband saw a fellow sailor climb over the railing, ready to jump. He shouted, rushed forward, and dragged the man back onto the deck. He saved a life.

At the grievance meeting, the anguish was relentless. One mother, in tears, recounted a call from her daughter. The sailor's voice was hollow. She felt she would never go home. She might die on the ship.

Other families turned their fury on Hung Cao and senior Navy officials. Why was the USS Lincoln's combat mission being stretched endlessly? The ship was due back in May. Now the return date is a question mark. The Navy Department has never offered a specific timeline. That lit a fuse.

Hung Cao's answer was shameless. He said another carrier, the USS Roosevelt, would relieve the USS Lincoln. But he never gave a concrete timeline. The families, of course, refused to let it go.

The Navy's Impossible Math and a Political Firestorm

The Navy Department stood silent, absorbing the families' fury. But it had its own bitter truth to swallow. The USS Ford, the other carrier that had been operating alongside the Lincoln in the Middle East, pulled out in May after more than ten months at sea and a laundry room fire.

Now, only the Lincoln and the USS Bush remain in the region. Carriers from other areas can't be rushed in to relieve them. And with the Middle East war still boiling, the Lincoln has no choice but to keep enduring.

The US Navy faces a brutal math: ten bottles, seven lids. The endless Middle East wars keep it bogged down. So even when it knows a ship like the Lincoln is overloaded and its sailors are on the verge of collapse, it is helpless.

This endless delay is crushing the thousands of sailors on board. If the pressure keeps building, it will hit a breaking point. Then sailors may start taking their own lives, jumping into the sea one after another in protest.

Then the families' fury will erupt like wildfire. This fire will ultimately engulf Trump. He will be badly burned and left in a terrible mess.

Lai Ting-yiu