Trump said a deal was in sight. On August 2, the US president said an agreement had already been reached on the Strait of Hormuz and that a deal on Iran’s denuclearization would also be secured. He said the United States would hold talks with Iran on August 3.
The world had reason to be skeptical. Only a day earlier, Trump was reportedly considering a major strike on Iran. Now, he had reversed course yet again.
Axios reported on August 1 that Trump was seriously considering strikes on Iranian energy targets in the coming days. The reported move was a response to Iran’s missile attack on a US military base in Jordan and its continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Such attacks could have driven the five-month US-Iran conflict into an unprecedented escalation. But Trump had not issued a final order.
Two US officials said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with Trump that day. The crown prince reportedly voiced concern over a planned large-scale new round of strikes and urged Trump to ease tensions rather than attack.
Trump governs America through social media.
Later that evening, he wrote on his Truth Social platform that the United States was “locked and loaded” and ready to act against Iran at any time,“at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II”.
But in a twist, Trump said Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked Washington to delay the attack. Their reason, he said, was that all sides had agreed on the framework of a deal.
The framework would include the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”, along with an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Trump said he had agreed to cancel the attack in response to that request. He said the decision was “for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran”, provided that all sides could reach an agreement quickly.
By August 2, Trump was declaring that an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz was already in place. He said a deal on Iranian denuclearization would follow, and that the United States would begin talks with Iran on August 3.
Israel, however, knew nothing about it.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was left completely in the dark.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported on August 2, citing senior Israeli officials, that the United States and Israel had originally planned a joint strike on Iran on August 1. When Trump changed his position, however, Washington allegedly left Israel in the dark for hours.
Israeli leaders reportedly learned that the strike had been canceled only through Trump’s social-media post. One senior Israeli official said, “For hours, we were in real uncertainty.”
Israel could only follow the latest US developments through Trump’s Truth Social platform. Senior officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, reportedly learned through social media that the strike plan had been abruptly canceled. The official said it felt as though the United States had “left us hanging.”
At first, Israel believed the sudden US announcement might have been intended to lower Iran’s guard. But after contacting Washington, Israeli officials confirmed that the strike plan had in fact been called off.
Another senior Israeli official put the frustration bluntly: “We cannot comprehend Trump’s ultimate intentions.” With Trump able to change his mind at any moment, the Israeli military remained on high alert.
Deep Throat
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Chile's President Kast sat down with China's ambassador Niu Qingbao last Friday. The meeting at the presidential palace ran over an hour. It was the first face-to-face contact since the right-wing leader took office in March.
Chile's President Kast
Just one day before the meeting, the US Trade Representative's office confirmed a 12.5% tariff on Chilean imports.
According to the presidential palace, Kast, Foreign Minister Makena, and Deputy Foreign Minister Torres used the meeting to review the bilateral agenda.
They also discussed the foreign minister's upcoming visit to China and preparations for the president's attendance at the APEC Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19.
APEC Leaders' Meeting
Washington's justification? Chile hasn't banned imports of goods made with so-called 'forced labor.' Copper, Chile's biggest export, got a pass. But salmon, timber, and food took a direct hit.
The tariff plunges Kast back into a dilemma: caught between the two economic superpowers that dominate his country.
Kast won the presidency last November with just over 58% of the vote. His campaign playbook? Borrow heavily from Donald Trump. He promised a border wall with Bolivia and a crackdown on crime, which he pinned on Venezuelan immigrants.
But since taking office in March, his strategy of aligning with the US has already run into trouble.
Weeks before leaving office, outgoing left-wing President Gabriel Boric quietly approved a submarine cable project, operated by a Chinese company. The 19,873-kilometer cable would connect Chile directly to Hong Kong, with a 30-year concession.
The then-minister of transport and telecommunications signed the decree on January 27. But after a warning from the US Embassy in Chile, he revoked it two days later, citing a 'typographical error.'
Washington wasn't done. In late February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio slapped visa restrictions on three Chilean officials, accusing them of backing activities that threatened the security of critical telecom infrastructure.
US Secretary of State Rubio
Boric later confessed that he personally ordered the revocation after receiving explicit threats from Washington. The threats included possibly removing Chile from the US Visa Waiver Program: the only South American country in it.
At the time, Chinese Ambassador Niu Qingbao publicly defended the cable project. He called it a mutually beneficial, win-win idea, and accused the US of making baseless claims about so-called strategic risks.
The numbers tell a clear story. Chile sends 37% of its exports to China: copper, lithium, lemons, cherries. And about a quarter of its imports come from China. Last year, two-way trade hit $65.33 billion.
37% of Chile's exports go to China: copper, lithium, lemons, and cherries.
Yet, the United States remains the largest source of foreign direct investment in Chile, with a cumulative $12.5 billion, versus $4.6 billion from China, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
Washington's tariff decision has rattled the ruling coalition, too. Agriculture Minister Campos and Defense Minister Barros both publicly slammed the move. On Thursday evening, Senator Squella, president of the Republican Party founded by José Antonio Kast, told CNN Chile that the tariffs prove Chile has gotten almost nothing in return for its overtures to Washington.
Squella didn't mince words. "A huge effort has been put into having the best possible relations with the United States," he told the media, "only for them to pull some sort of forced labour claim out of a hat."
When the conversation turned to Chinese investment in Chilean ports, Squella drew a sharp line between ordinary trade and strategic assets. In some areas, he argues, Chile must be wary of capital or investors that don't align with national interests. However, Chile still lacks the institutional norms to handle such situations.
But set aside those reservations, and his views on China and the United States come into sharp focus. "If you ask me which one I would like to go deeper with, in terms of doctrine or of how a society should be run, obviously I see the United States as much closer," Squella said. Then he added a twist: "But I have no recollection of China creating difficulties or failing to respect the rules of the game."
The incident has forced Squella to reassess the real value of cozying up to Washington. "It seems there is not much point in making so much effort to have a good relationship if in the end they arrive and out of nowhere impose tariffs on us that hit us at the waterline, in activities that are fundamental to us," he said.
