Five reasons Taiwan is drifting towards Mainland China

TAIWAN IS FACING a number of challenges which are largely underreported in the western world. These are causing the 23 million population to resume the drift towards a positive relationship with mainland China.

EGGS IN ONE BASKET

1) Taiwan's widely celebrated semiconductor industry is turning out to be an Achille's heel. Over-encouragement from the island's US-focused ruling politicians means that more than 40 per cent of total business activity is tied to a single activity – a widely risky position for any society.

Furthermore, chipmaking is an inherently volatile industry, shifting between shortages and gluts—and that's BEFORE Washington decreed that decision-making should be divorced from business concerns, and determined largely by political considerations.

This has created multiple areas of concern. Most notably, the US has forced high level chipmakers everywhere to stop selling high end chips to China—a move which directly harms profits of all chip-makers and shrinks their markets, including those on the island of Taiwan.

Furthermore, the move forced mainland Chinese scientists to make their own high-end chips, and they are proving better at it than expected. While Taiwan makes about 46 per cent of the world's semiconductors, mainland China is now the second largest manufacturer, producing about 26 per cent.

If we focus on 300mm fabrications, mainland China and the island of Taiwan are neck and neck, with 22 per cent each. [see picture – Taiwan semiconductors]

Also, other nations are also now making high-end chips, including the US itself. Taiwan is discovering what the EU has already discovered: to partner with the US is often to embark on a path of long-term self-harm.

THE PEOPLE WANT CHANGE

2) Washington's tight political grip on the legally Chinese island has gone. At the last election, a clear majority of Taiwanese voters rejected the pro-US candidate, giving Democratic Progressive Party leader William Lai Ching-te a hollow victory. Six out of ten voters voted against him.

The lack of public support for the DPP is higher still if we consider the number of people who didn't vote at all—about 29 per cent. This was downplayed by the western mainstream media, but is significant. It is the first time this century that there were more votes against the winning candidate than for him or her.

The DPP is known for overriding the wishes of the people of Taiwan to keep its US masters happy. With minority support and loss of political control, the party can’t do that any more.

ALL ENERGY IS IMPORTED

3) There's widespread dismay that the DPP can't keep the lights on. Literally. There are regular power cuts in what is supposed to be a modern, hi-tech community.

Why? What appears to be a crucial misjudgment in the design of the island's energy supply map is sending warning signals of danger ahead.

Taiwan's US-friendly leaders opted to differentiate itself from mainland China's system of growing a network of modern nuclear power plants. Instead, Taiwan opted for western-style hostility to nuclear power, starting on a program of decommissioning nuclear plants in favor of relying mainly on liquid natural gas, or LNG—the energy source the US supplied to Germany after the US said it would halt the Nord Stream pipelines and a mysterious, unnamed power did so.

The result is that Taiwan is almost entirely dependent on imports for its energy needs. Fully 97.73 percent comes from overseas.

If US agents in Taiwan ever gave the DPP the go-ahead to declare independence, the mainland Chinese could subdue the island easily by simply blockading fuel deliveries. Not a single shot would have to be fired.

Taiwan has regular black-outs of the sort one expected with poorly developed nations. A count in 2022 showed 313 power outages through the year. It's no surprise that Taiwan's people are unhappy about this – more electricity is used by industry than the entire population put together.

DISINFORMATION

4) The final problem is the distorted information environment that surrounds Taiwan. If you Google the island, you'll get a long, long list of western media reports that hide the fact that it is legally part of China and instead say that the Chinese "claim" it.

You'll also get links to vast numbers of US think tank write-ups and feature articles misrepresenting Taiwan as a terrified group of people fearing mainland missiles, and who want the US to nobly interfere.

But if you visit Taiwan, and talk to business people and investors there, you get a very different story. Relationships between the people and their cousins and business partners over the water are good.

The DPP’s official narrative says that the number of Taiwanese who live and work on the mainland is about 163,000 and falling. Trouble is, nobody believes this.

Financial analysts say the number is far higher, at least 1.2 million and as high as two million. The town of Kunshun, near Shanghai, for example, has, by itself more than 100,000 Taiwanese residents. And there are many other places like that. There are multiple flights and ferry journeys between Taiwan and mainland China every day.

More than a third of all Taiwanese exports go to Mainland China. And that's after the number of transactions were depressed by political interference. As the fearmongering subsides, that number may rise.

Furthermore, a lot of the false reporting is transparently misleading. Here's an example. The Financial Times printed this graph showing that mainland China spends more on weapons than the province of Taiwan.[see pic – FT graph]

The reader's initial reaction may be to note the divergence of the two lines. But after about two seconds, one thinks: wait a minute, of course one is bigger than the other. This is like saying: "The UK spends more on weapons than the UK town of Bournemouth." Of course it does.

BOTH SIDES WANT SAME THING

As the people of Taiwan educate themselves, and stop listening to the United States, now seen as a rogue nation for its blind support of the destruction and slaughter in Gaza, realism will dawn.

Surveys show that that the people of Taiwan and the people of mainland China want the same thing – the continuation of the peaceful status quo until both sides say that they are ready to move the relationship forwards. The endless fake deadlines from the western press [see illustration 4] have no relevance at all.

The only thing China needs to keep people happy on both sides of the Straits is the patience to sit tight and wait. As Lao Tzu said, to turn a glass of muddy water into a glass of clear water, just add patience.

…

Nury Vittachi is editor of fridayeveryday.com

Lai See(利是)

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

London just dropped a classic good news, bad news bombshell on Hong Kong BNO holders.

The headline grabber? The path to permanent residency remains a five-year trek—the so-called "5+1" deal is safe. But here is the kicker: to actually cross the finish line, applicants must now survive a gauntlet of "extra spicy" new conditions. We are talking tougher English tests, strict income floors, and proof of continuous tax payments.

Think of it as a mouthful of sugar followed by a shot of hot chili. The anxiety on the ground is palpable. The South China Morning Post cites a survey warning that nearly 30 percent of these migrants do not meet the new bar. Unless London blinks, thousands will be screened out at the doorstep, leaving them empty-handed after five wasted years. Agitated Hong Kong people in UK are scrambling with petitions, but make no mistake: for the British government, utility is the only metric that matters.

Survey Warning: 30% of Hong Kong BNO holders fall short of London's new "permanent residence" rules and face being screened out at the finish line.

Here is the bait-and-switch: getting the visa was easy, but staying is going to cost you. Previously, income checks were nonexistent. Now, the rules have tightened: you need a fixed job, a tax record, and an annual haul of at least £12,570 (HK$128,000) for three to five years. That might sound low, but for many Hong Kong BNO holders, it is a high wall to climb. Not everyone is punching the clock in a full-time gig.

The SCMP-cited survey breaks it down. Of the 690 interviewed: 19 percent are housewives, 8 percent are retirees, and 3 percent are students. That is 30 percent of the total population right there. No job, no income, no tax record. If the Home Office sticks to the letter of the law, this entire group is going to fail the assessment cold.

Even the working class is standing on shaky ground. The data shows that only 42 percent of respondents have full-time jobs, while another 20 percent are scraping by with part-time work. Do the math: stable, salaried Hong Kong BNO holders are not the majority. Many are hustling in "casual work," where income fluctuates wildly and often falls short of the new government mandates.

Speak to anyone on the ground, and they will tell you the housewife trap is real. Families move over with young kids, find they can’t hire help, and suddenly the mother is housebound. It is a forced choice. Even if they pick up part-time shifts to help make ends meet, those meager earnings inevitably miss the strict income targets London has set.

The Wealth Illusion

Then there are the cash-rich, income-poor migrants. These are the folks who sold their Hong Kong properties at the peak, sitting on millions of dollars to fund a quiet life in the UK. Some are retired; others just don’t need to work. They are slowly "pinching" their savings to get by. But under these new rules, their wealth is irrelevant. No employment income means no tax record. And no tax record means they are not getting past the gatekeepers.

Smart professionals are also about to get caught in their own loop. I know of Hong Kong BNO holders who aren't unemployed—they are just working "on the sly," taking remote gigs from Hong Kong to dodge UK taxes. It used to be a clever way to save a buck. Now, it is a liability. Without a UK tax footprint or local employment record, they have technically earned nothing in the eyes of the Home Office. When application time comes, they are going to face big trouble.

The education gap is another ticking time bomb. The survey reveals that 16 percent of respondents only have a secondary education. Let’s be realistic: hitting the B2 English level—roughly A-Level standard—is a pipe dream for this demographic. This single hurdle is going to cull a significant herd of applicants before they even get started.

The Language Barrier: With 16% of surveyed migrants holding only secondary education, the "B2 barrier" for English proficiency is set to trigger a wave of failures.

Panic is setting in as families realize they might be kicked out at the last minute. Distressed and confused, Hong Kong BNO holders are mobilizing. A petition demanding the government lower the bar—keeping the easier B1 English requirement and scrapping the income test—has already gathered 28,000 signatures. They are even planning a protest march for December 6.

Utility Over Humanity

London, sensing the rising heat, offered a vague olive branch yesterday. Officials claim the consultation is not yet finalized and teased a potential transitional arrangement. But do not hold your breath—nobody bothered to explain what that transition actually looks like.

Let’s call this what it is: habitual duplicity. When the chips are down, the British government puts utility first. A sharp analysis in Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao hit the nail on the head: by piling on these conditions, London is downgrading the BNO route from a special humanitarian channel to a high-threshold, ordinary immigration path. It has morphed into a policy demanding economic tribute, not a sanctuary.

The writing is on the wall. Don't expect them to lower the bar for permanent residence. Smart Hong Kong people should know better than to have high expectations.

Lai Ting-yiu