When Trump campaigned, he said that he did not start a war in four years of his first term as president of the United States, and that he did not like war. He began his second term as president on January 20, and less than two months later, on March 15, he launched his first war since taking office, with massive air strikes against Yemen. At the same time, he repeatedly declared to the world that he wanted to "take back" control of the Panama Canal, not to mention the use of military means to obtain Greenland.
It is not difficult to see Trump's intention to control the world's maritime transportation channels as a deployment for the whole world and global trade. As we all know, there are four fortresses on the world's seaborne trade routes, the first of which is the Strait of Malacca where the Pacific Ocean enters the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea. The strategic location of this fortress has been a battleground since ancient times, and it is especially important for China, which accounts for 60% of its global trade through the strait. The United States, which already has a military base in Singapore, has effectively taken control of the Strait of Malacca. The second stronghold is the Panamanian Port and Canal, where China has 20% of its trade turnover. Trump's big push to "take back" the Panama Canal is to control the shipping lanes between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and to kill 20% of China's trade at any time. The third is the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea fortresses, as long as this route is controlled, the trade volume here can be completely controlled by the United States. This also explains why Trump has launched an airstrike on Yemen at the Red Sea Coast. The fourth fortress is the Arctic Ocean Route. As the planet warms and glaciers melt, the Arctic Ocean shipping lanes are getting busier; China's trade to Europe can be shortened by about 40 percent through this route. When Trump was in his first president term, he had already said that he wanted to buy Greenland, and now he has threatened to take control of Greenland by military means if the purchase nor encouraging Greenland's independence does not work. Mr. Trump did this ostensibly for the island's rare earth resources, but more importantly for control of the Arctic Ocean shipping lanes.
External ports are strategic assets for any country, and commercial operations can play a good role in a healthy global trade ecology. Today, however, the United States is clearly hostile to China, and its president is so ostentatiously seeking control of the world's most important ports and sea routes in order to one day cut off China's overseas trade. Knowing this background, it is not rocket science to judge whether the purchase and sale of Panama port terminals is a simple and pure commercial deal.
Ocean
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
At the arrival of 2026, the happiest thing is to see the "Hong Kong is dead" narrative—proclaimed so loudly by Western voices—die yet again.
Foreign Money Returns Home
The West has written Hong Kong's obituary more times than you can count. They believed the city's return to China should have been its death sentence. American magazine Fortune declared "The Death of Hong Kong" on its 1995 cover—two years before the handover even happened. Hong Kong survived the Asian financial turmoil in the early post-handover years. It survived SARS. Then came 2019's Black Riots, followed by US sanctions on Hong Kong officials in 2020 and the pandemic's hammer blow. Foreign capital fled in an American-orchestrated exodus, with much of it landing in Singapore.
Last February, Stephen Roach—Yale University senior fellow—wrote in the UK's Financial Times with a headline that said it all: "It pains me to say Hong Kong is over." Foreign investors don't just track economic growth when they assess Hong Kong. They watch the stock market. And over the past year, Hong Kong's miraculous stock market comeback has bankrupted the "Hong Kong is dead" theory.
Hong Kong's economy grew an estimated 3.2% in 2025—ranking it among the developed world's top performers. But the stock market performance was getting really interesting. Average daily turnover in the first 11 months hit HK$230.7 billion—a massive 43% jump compared to 2024's same period.
Record-Breaking Fundraising Wins
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange crushed it in 2025. A total of 119 new listings raised HK$285.8 billion—a staggering 220% year-on-year increase and the highest since 2021. According to KPMG's report, HKEX ranked first globally in fundraising. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq tied for second place. Looking ahead, HKEX's fundraising is estimated to reach HK$300-350 billion in 2026, keeping it among the world's top exchanges.
Sure, Mainland capital is investing in Hong Kong. But foreign capital's return has been the real game-changer behind the stock market's strong performance. According to fund industry insiders, what we're seeing now is only wave one—primarily hedge funds and other medium-to-short-term players. As Hong Kong's trading volumes swell and quality Mainland companies list here, the long-term foreign funds will gradually return. The outlook for Hong Kong stocks continues to look favorable.
America's narrative said Hong Kong's National Security Law would scare capital away. Reality proved exactly the opposite. Hong Kong's stable environment gave Chinese companies the confidence to list here. America's targeting of Chinese concept stocks listed on its exchanges was self-destruction—forcing quality Chinese companies to turn to Hong Kong for listing instead. This made Hong Kong's stock market bigger and stronger, compelling even bearish foreign capital to come back.
Beijing's Seal of Approval
President Xi's remarks when meeting Chief Executive John Lee during his duty visit to Beijing in mid-December reveal what work the central government values in Hong Kong. President Xi opened with praise for the Chief Executive's courage and initiative in leading the SAR government. He highlighted four key achievements: steadfast maintenance of national security, successful Legislative Council elections, proactive integration into national development, and achieving steady economic growth.
President Xi's assessment underscores Beijing's high recognition of Hong Kong's ability to do both—safeguard national security and develop the economy simultaneously. Some Hong Kong people believed that having transitioned "from chaos to governance and then to prosperity," the city should set aside national security to focus on economic development. Reality proved this view wrong. Hong Kong must strike a balance between these seemingly contradictory goals and advance on both fronts at once.
Look at Hong Kong's development over the past five years. The city emerged from Black Riots and the pandemic in 2021, achieving a strong rebound from the bottom in 2023. The return to normalcy brought revenge spending that temporarily elevated market sentiment.
But entering 2024, local consumption patterns underwent structural changes. Hong Kong people shopping across the border diverted local retail spending. The strong Hong Kong dollar—tracking the US dollar—and high interest rates suppressed economic activity, leading to structural adjustment.
By the second half of 2025, Hong Kong entered a phase of moderate recovery. The property market began stabilizing after its decline. With the US starting rate cuts in September, capital supply loosened. Hong Kong can continue along this recovery path in 2026—that's the estimate anyway.
Despite the optimism, Hong Kong people must keep working hard. The many vacant shops you see on the streets tell the story—retail economy pressure remains real. In 2024, Hong Kong's total retail sales value of HK$376.8 billion represented a 7.3% year-on-year decline. That's painful for the retail sector.
Retail's Reversal Ahead
Through October 2025, retail sales values remained comparable to the previous year. But consumption began recovering in the second half—retail sales value rose 3.8% in August, 6% in September, and 6.9% in October. 2025 showed an early decline followed by growth, with accelerating consumption momentum. Retail consumption is expected to reverse its decline in 2026.
During this retail transformation, we Hong Kong people must continue their efforts. Old businesses will still be eliminated—that's inevitable. Strategic adjustments are required. New opportunities must be pursued.
Bottom line: Hong Kong's economic performance in 2025 proves once again that the "Hong Kong is dead" theory dies—one more time. Hong Kong has weathered different shocks repeatedly in the past, emerging reborn each time like a phoenix from the ashes.
Lo Wing Hung
