2026 marks a turning point. As Churchill famously declared during World War II's closing stages, we're witnessing "the beginning of the end." That great catastrophe moved toward its conclusion—and so too is Hong Kong's period of turbulence.
The evidence speaks for itself: Jimmy Lai, already convicted, faces sentencing next year (2026). The "35+ subversion case" will see several major pan-democratic figures released by mid-year, likely retreating from public life for good. And Joshua Wong's trial looms on the horizon, expected around mid-year, bringing another chapter to a close.
Lai's guilty verdict is in. Sentencing starts January 12. Everyone awaits the verdict.
The era these figures represented is ending—and that's precisely when Hong Kong's steady progress in stability truly begins.
Lai's Sentence: The Clock Is Ticking
The court has already found Jimmy Lai guilty of "colluding with foreign forces." Mitigation begins January 12, with sentencing to follow. The Hong Kong National Security Law leaves no room for ambiguity: serious offenses carry a minimum 10-year term, with life imprisonment as the ceiling. The weight of his punishment will become clear when the judge delivers the verdict.
Consider the precedent: Benny Tai Yiu-ting, the "35+ subversion case" ringleader, faced a 15-year sentencing starting point under the same National Security Law. His guilty plea from the outset reduced his term to 10 years. Lai differs in one crucial respect—he never pleaded guilty. The math isn't complicated.
Public attention now shifts to the eight defendants who pleaded guilty in Lai's case. This group includes former Apple Daily senior executives Cheung Kim-hung, Chan Pui-man, Lo Wai-kwong, Fung Wai-kong, Lam Man-chung, and Yeung Ching-kei, along with "Stand With Hong Kong" members Andy Chan Tsz-wah and Li Yu-hin. A guilty plea typically brings reduced sentences. But five of them—Cheung, Chan Pui-man, Yeung, Andy Chan, and Li—went further, serving as accomplice witnesses whose testimony helped secure Lai's conviction. Their cooperation means significantly lighter sentences and much shorter time behind bars.
Exits and Early Releases
The "35+ subversion case" offers instructive parallels. Au Nok-hin, a key primary election coordinator, initially faced at least 12 years. His guilty plea, demonstrated remorse, and agreement to testify for the prosecution cut his sentence to 6 years and 9 months. Counting from his arrest and remand, he's already served 5 years—release isn't far off.
Another defendant, Andrew Chiu Ka-yin, originally received 7 years. Good prison conduct and genuine remorse earned him leniency—he walked free two months ago.
These two cases set the pattern. If Cheung Kim-hung and the other accomplice witnesses receive substantial reductions, their release may be imminent. All have reportedly calmed down and focused on self-discipline during custody. Once free, they're expected to return to normal lives, avoiding any entanglement with political controversies.
Returning to the "35+ subversion case": eight convicted defendants currently serving sentences will be eligible for release next year. The list includes two major Democratic Party figures—Wu Chi-wai and Andrew Wan Siu-kin—plus former Civic Party leader Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu. Wu and Wan are due for release in June and July respectively. Friends who've visited them report both are in good health and spirits. Their plans? Emigrate with their families, withdraw from public life, and sever all ties with politics.
As for Alvin Yeung, he pleaded guilty at the first opportunity after arrest and even volunteered to become an accomplice witness—though that offer wasn't accepted. This demonstrates clear regret for his actions. After release, he's expected to return to a proper life path, bidding farewell to his radical years.
Joshua Wong's turn. Collusion charges plus money laundering—another national security spectacle begins.
Wong's Turn in the Spotlight
As one chapter closes, another major national security case is about to open. Joshua Wong faces charges of "colluding with foreign forces." His case will be mentioned in court again next year before being committed to the High Court for trial. Wong was already serving a sentence for other offenses when, on June 6 this year, he was arrested in prison and charged with "colluding with foreign forces"—along with a separate count of "money laundering." Like Lai's case, this one involves extensive evidence of intricate connections with foreign governments and politicians, including both public materials and confidential documents. It will draw major attention.
In the past, Wong was lauded by prominent US political figures like Democratic Party leader Nancy Pelosi and became a "darling" of Western media—even appearing on Time magazine's cover. Once trial begins, he'll likely become, like Jimmy Lai, a focal point of attention for Western countries. No doubt another round of commotion will follow.
That said, whatever foreign countries may do, Joshua Wong's case outcome can only be decided by Hong Kong's courts. What final fate awaits this figure? Everyone can grab their popcorn and watch.
Lai Ting-yiu
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The most consequential national security trial yet to come is also the one with the most unanswered questions — and at the centre of it is a man who almost made it out.
Monday (Feb 23) was "Renri" (人日) — the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, meant to be a day of celebration for all people. But for the 12 defendants in the "35+ Subversion Case," there was nothing to celebrate. The Court of Appeal dismissed all their appeals against both conviction and sentencing in full. Unless they push it all the way to the Court of Final Appeal, this case is done. That brings two of the three major national security cases to a close — the other being the Jimmy Lai trial. What remains is the Joshua Wong case, expected to go to trial around mid-year. Like Lai's, it reaches into the highest levels of American politics, and it will almost certainly expose a trove of behind-the-scenes dealings that will shake Hong Kong to its core. The trial is close enough that the details don't need spelling out here. But one mystery absolutely does: Wong was once Washington's darling — so why did he never make it out, while his co-conspirator Nathan Law did? An investigative report by American journalists cracked open the story.
Wong's trial is the last big national security case standing — and the most explosive one yet. How did he never make it out?
Wong's role in the Occupy Central movement and the 2019 unrest needs no introduction. In June last year, while already serving a prison term at Stanley Prison on sedition charges, he was arrested again and charged under the Hong Kong National Security Law with conspiracy to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security. His second pre-trial review at the Magistrates' Court came on 21 November last year, with the next hearing set for 6 March; the full trial at the High Court is expected to begin around mid-year. This case carries weight every bit as significant as the Jimmy Lai trial — the spotlight it commands will be enormous.
The Charges Are Grave
The prosecution alleges that between July and November 2020, Wong — together with Nathan Law and others yet to be identified — conspired in Hong Kong to solicit foreign governments and institutions to impose sanctions against the Hong Kong SAR and the People's Republic of China, and to seriously obstruct the government in enacting and enforcing its laws and policies. The charges carry a potential sentence of life imprisonment. What exactly Wong and Law did, and which foreign officials were involved, the prosecution will lay out in full when the trial begins.
The public has long asked some uncomfortable questions. Did Joshua Wong ever consider fleeing before or after the National Security Law came into force at the end of June 2020? If so, why did it never happen? Did the US government try to help him get out? An investigative report by two American journalists answered part of the puzzle — and sources familiar with the matter, when contacted by Hong Kong media, broadly confirmed what it said.
Wong Begged Washington for Help
The night before the National Security Law took effect, Wong reached out through a senator's adviser to appeal directly to President Trump for help. At the same time, he sent an email to then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, explicitly asking to be helped to "travel to the United States to seek political asylum, by whatever means necessary". That email tells you everything. Wong knew exactly how dangerous his situation had become — and he was betting his future on American goodwill.
Around the same time, Wong arranged to meet two officials from the US Consulate General in Hong Kong at St. John's Building, directly across the street from the consulate. He made clear he wanted to walk in and seek refuge. He was turned away on the spot. When Pompeo saw the email, he consulted with his staff and arrived at the same conclusion: letting Wong through the consulate doors was simply not an option — Washington feared Beijing would retaliate by forcing the US consulate in Hong Kong to close entirely.
State Department officials went further, exploring a covert plan to smuggle Wong out of Hong Kong by sea — routing him through Taiwan or the Philippines before eventually reaching the United States. That option was killed too, on the grounds that any such attempt would very likely be intercepted by Chinese authorities, triggering a diplomatic crisis. When the accounting was done, American interests won out — and Joshua Wong was coldly abandoned.
By that point, Nathan Law had already made it out. Seizing Pompeo's visit to London, Law met the Secretary of State privately and raised the question of rescuing Wong one more time — and was once again turned away without sympathy. In September 2020, Wong was arrested on sedition charges and imprisoned two months later. Any remaining window for escape had sealed shut.
Law Moved Fast — and Made It
Nathan Law is named as a co-conspirator in the charges against Wong — meaning that if arrested, they face the same jeopardy. But Law proved far more calculating than Wong. Shortly before the National Security Law took effect, he quietly slipped away, eventually confirming his presence in the United Kingdom on 13 July 2020. He even staged a moment of wistful sentiment, declaring: "With this parting, I do not yet know when I shall return... May glory come soon!" — words that, in the circumstances, could not have sounded more hollow.
Same charges, same case — but Law ran, and Wong didn't. One man made it out clean. The other is still paying the price.
Joshua Wong — sharp-witted all his life — took one step too many in trusting the Americans, and that delay cost him everything. The US government, in the name of "national interest," discarded him without hesitation. As his trial approaches, the reality is this: placing any further faith in American support would be the last illusion he can afford.
Lai Ting-yiu
