Despite intense geopolitical tensions and a challenging global environment, Hong Kong’s stock market is experiencing a remarkable resurgence. Since the start of 2025, 27 new stocks have been listed, raising nearly HK$80 billion, catapulting Hong Kong to the world’s second-largest IPO market by volume. Over 150 companies are currently queued for IPOs, signaling unstoppable momentum. This surge starkly contradicts Stephen Roach’s earlier claim that Hong Kong’s market was “finished” due to loss of autonomy and long-term stagnation.
Reginal Ip decisively won the debate against Stephen Roach, whose “Hong Kong Prophet” label has been unmasked and now he is silent like an ostrich.
Regina Ip’s Data-Driven Rebuttal
Last year, Roach, self-styled as the “Hong Kong Prophet,” declared the city’s stock market dead in the Financial Times. Regina Ip, a prominent Hong Kong political figure, responded forcefully, accusing Roach of making sweeping, baseless generalizations without solid data. She highlighted Hong Kong’s consistent IPO fundraising leadership over the past decade, including seven years as the global leader and a strong second place as recently as 2020. Ip explained that recent market softness was largely due to US interest rate hikes attracting capital away, not structural decline.
Ip further criticized Roach’s shortsightedness, labeling him a typical stockbroker who praises markets only when profitable and disparages them otherwise. Despite multiple rounds of debate, Roach refused to concede, but the facts have since vindicated Ip’s position.
IPO Market Growth and Fundraising Trend
In 2024, Hong Kong saw 63 IPOs raising HK$82.9 billion—an 80% increase from the previous year—securing the city’s place as the world’s fourth-largest IPO market despite a global fundraising decline of 10%. The momentum has only intensified in 2025, with expectations of 70 to 80 IPOs and fundraising potentially reaching HK$160 billion, placing Hong Kong firmly among the top three globally.
The recent IPO boom in Hong Kong is largely a response to the Trump administration’s aggressive policies targeting China, which have compelled numerous Chinese companies to withdraw from US markets and seek safer alternatives. Trump’s “America First” approach has injected significant uncertainty into the prospects of Chinese firms listed in the US, prompting a strategic retreat.
In this context, a substantial number of Chinese concept stocks have returned to Hong Kong, which has proactively overhauled its regulatory framework to better accommodate these companies. This transformation has positioned Hong Kong as a more attractive and stable venue for listings, especially amid escalating US-China geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical Impact and Strategic Shifts in Listings
A clear example of this shift is the fashion e-commerce giant Shein, which has abandoned its earlier IPO plans in London in favor of pursuing a listing in Hong Kong. This move underscores the city’s growing appeal as a strategic financial hub for Chinese companies.
Simultaneously, Western capital inflows into Hong Kong have increased noticeably, drawn by the city’s improved market infrastructure and its geopolitical role as a safer, more stable alternative to US exchanges for Chinese firms navigating the current international landscape.
In contrast, Singapore’s IPO market remains subdued, with only one IPO raising a mere USD 4.5m so far this year. At least 14 companies have announced plans to delist from the Singapore Exchange, prompting urgent government consultations to simplify IPO procedures and revive the market. This comparative weakness further underscores Hong Kong’s robust performance and strategic appeal.
Conclusion: Facts Have Spoken, Roach Silenced
Regina Ip’s data-backed challenge to Stephen Roach’s bearish forecasts has been decisively borne out by market realities. Hong Kong’s stock market is not “finished” but thriving, disproving Roach’s gloomy predictions. Meanwhile, Roach has retreated from public debate, effectively “playing the ostrich” as Ip triumphs. The “Hong Kong Prophet” title Roach claimed has been thoroughly unmasked and discredited by the facts.
Hong Kong’s IPO market surged in 2024 and 2025, reclaiming its place among th world’s top IPO hubs, defying bearish forecasts.
Lai Ting-yiu
What Say You?
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
C.Y. Leung just dropped receipts on Facebook. Next Digital's cash cow wasn't journalism—it was advertising. And the man squeezing those corporate wallets was Mark Simon, Jimmy Lai's American fixer, who sent letters to Hong Kong's biggest property developers that read like protection racket scripts. Pay up or face hostile coverage. Classic triad tactics, dressed in business English.
This isn't speculation. In July 2014, leaked documents from a "Next Digital shareholder" exposed the playbook. Among them: Mark Simon's threatening correspondence with a major corporation's chief executive. The message was blunt—advertise with us or watch your friendly coverage vanish. This is how Lai bankrolled his operation.
Mark Simon wore multiple hats beside Jimmy Lai. Former U.S. military intelligence officer. Next Digital's advertising director. The man who built Lai's financial pipeline and then distributed the cash to opposition figures and radical groups. His role was never just about selling ad space.
Jimmy Lai’s fixer Mark Simon used ad “sales” letters like a protection racket—buy space in Apple Daily or get hammered in the coverage.
The Shakedown Letters
The leaked documents from July 2014 pulled back the curtain. Media reports at the time confirmed that Mark Simon, during his tenure as advertising director, sent threatening letters to a major conglomerate's top executive. The approach: carrot and stick, heavy on the stick.
In the letter, Simon claimed he wanted to repair relations. Then came the threat: refuse to advertise with Next Digital and the "friendly relationship" ends. Translation: attack pieces resume. He followed up with another letter demanding a face-to-face meeting, warning that future cooperation between Next Digital and the conglomerate would become "difficult" without compliance.
The leaked documents contained no reply from the conglomerate, so we don't know their response. What we do know: major corporations kept advertising in Apple Daily during that period. The shakedown likely worked.
Bankrolling the Opposition
Mark Simon didn't just collect money for Boss Lai—he distributed it to pan-democrats and radical groups. The leaked documents revealed the operation's scope, particularly around the 2014 Occupy Central movement, when funding flowed freely.
Two months before Occupy Central formally launched, Jimmy Lai and Mark Simon exchanged emails discussing a "June special project." Lai funneled HK$9.5 million through Simon to the Democratic Party, Civic Party, and others—seed money to push Occupy Central forward.
The pair also provided approximately HK$3.5 million for the "June 22 Civil Referendum"—publicity and promotion for a stunt that mobilized citizens to select proposals for "universal suffrage for Chief Executive." This built momentum for Occupy Central. The operation was led by Benny Tai and Robert Chung, but Lai was the financier pulling strings from behind. The leaked emails even caught Lai mocking the "Occupy Trio" as scholars with ideas but no strategy, saying he had no choice but to help them—meaning he wanted control.
Big-brand ad money kept Apple Daily flush with cash, letting Lai pour funds into pan-democrats and radical groups on a grand scale.
The Money Pipeline
From 2013 to 2020, Mark Simon controlled Jimmy Lai's cash spigot. Court testimony revealed that Lai opened nine accounts over those seven years, transferring HK$118 million to Simon. Of that sum, HK$93 million went to pan-democratic parties and political figures.
The timeline matters. From September to December 2019—right after the anti-extradition bill unrest erupted—Simon distributed funds ranging from HK$8 million to HK$1 million to the Civic Party, Democratic Party, Labour Party, League of Social Democrats, Au Nok-hin, and Lee Yu-hin. Pouring fuel on the fire while Hong Kong burned.
Who Is Mark Simon Really?
Simon fled to the United States, so his true identity remains murky. But the evidence points to something beyond a simple business relationship. One detail stands out: Simon's access to White House National Security Council meetings. He knew the latest deployments, including actions following the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act signing and even Trump's thinking, which he then reported back to Boss Lai.
Political observers who've tracked Simon speculate he may have operated with dual identities from the start—both Lai's right-hand man, helping establish direct channels to Washington, and a covert operative planted by the Americans to pull the strings of this particular puppet.
Given Mark Simon's shadowy role, Western politicians and media portraying Jimmy Lai as a simple "freedom of the press warrior" tells you everything about their credibility. It's a lie told with a straight face.
Lai Ting-yiu
