IPO Surge Validates Triumph Over Hong Kong Doom Prophecy

Despite intense geopolitical tensions and a challenging global environment, Hong Kong’s stock market is experiencing a remarkable resurgence. Since the start of 2025, 27 new stocks have been listed, raising nearly HK$80 billion, catapulting Hong Kong to the world’s second-largest IPO market by volume. Over 150 companies are currently queued for IPOs, signaling unstoppable momentum. This surge starkly contradicts Stephen Roach’s earlier claim that Hong Kong’s market was “finished” due to loss of autonomy and long-term stagnation.

Reginal Ip decisively won the debate against Stephen Roach, whose “Hong Kong Prophet” label has been unmasked and now he is silent like an ostrich.

Regina Ip’s Data-Driven Rebuttal

Last year, Roach, self-styled as the “Hong Kong Prophet,” declared the city’s stock market dead in the Financial Times. Regina Ip, a prominent Hong Kong political figure, responded forcefully, accusing Roach of making sweeping, baseless generalizations without solid data. She highlighted Hong Kong’s consistent IPO fundraising leadership over the past decade, including seven years as the global leader and a strong second place as recently as 2020. Ip explained that recent market softness was largely due to US interest rate hikes attracting capital away, not structural decline.

Ip further criticized Roach’s shortsightedness, labeling him a typical stockbroker who praises markets only when profitable and disparages them otherwise. Despite multiple rounds of debate, Roach refused to concede, but the facts have since vindicated Ip’s position.

IPO Market Growth and Fundraising Trend

In 2024, Hong Kong saw 63 IPOs raising HK$82.9 billion—an 80% increase from the previous year—securing the city’s place as the world’s fourth-largest IPO market despite a global fundraising decline of 10%. The momentum has only intensified in 2025, with expectations of 70 to 80 IPOs and fundraising potentially reaching HK$160 billion, placing Hong Kong firmly among the top three globally.

The recent IPO boom in Hong Kong is largely a response to the Trump administration’s aggressive policies targeting China, which have compelled numerous Chinese companies to withdraw from US markets and seek safer alternatives. Trump’s “America First” approach has injected significant uncertainty into the prospects of Chinese firms listed in the US, prompting a strategic retreat.

In this context, a substantial number of Chinese concept stocks have returned to Hong Kong, which has proactively overhauled its regulatory framework to better accommodate these companies. This transformation has positioned Hong Kong as a more attractive and stable venue for listings, especially amid escalating US-China geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitical Impact and Strategic Shifts in Listings

A clear example of this shift is the fashion e-commerce giant Shein, which has abandoned its earlier IPO plans in London in favor of pursuing a listing in Hong Kong. This move underscores the city’s growing appeal as a strategic financial hub for Chinese companies.

Simultaneously, Western capital inflows into Hong Kong have increased noticeably, drawn by the city’s improved market infrastructure and its geopolitical role as a safer, more stable alternative to US exchanges for Chinese firms navigating the current international landscape.

In contrast, Singapore’s IPO market remains subdued, with only one IPO raising a mere USD 4.5m so far this year. At least 14 companies have announced plans to delist from the Singapore Exchange, prompting urgent government consultations to simplify IPO procedures and revive the market. This comparative weakness further underscores Hong Kong’s robust performance and strategic appeal.

Conclusion: Facts Have Spoken, Roach Silenced

Regina Ip’s data-backed challenge to Stephen Roach’s bearish forecasts has been decisively borne out by market realities. Hong Kong’s stock market is not “finished” but thriving, disproving Roach’s gloomy predictions. Meanwhile, Roach has retreated from public debate, effectively “playing the ostrich” as Ip triumphs. The “Hong Kong Prophet” title Roach claimed has been thoroughly unmasked and discredited by the facts.

Hong Kong’s IPO market surged in 2024 and 2025, reclaiming its place among th world’s top IPO hubs, defying bearish forecasts.

Lai Ting-yiu

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** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

The Russia-Ukraine war keeps chewing up lives, even through Christmas, with shellfire still thundering and soldiers still dying by the day. Now there’s talk that two young Hong Kong people who went to Ukraine to enlist have been killed — and why they’d risk it all to fight a war thousands of miles away is still a puzzle that needs unpacking.

Two Hong Kong people reportedly die in Ukraine — black-riot “comrades” who chased the “International Legion” bolt when the “life contract” hits.

I pulled together what I could dig out and it points to this: a group of Black Riots "comrades" once geared up to head for Ukraine’s front line, but some panicked the moment they learned they had to sign a “life contract” and quickly backed out, saving themselves. Others stayed — and some were even slotted into a “suicide squad” and sent to fight in eastern Ukraine, with their fate still unknown.
 
The lesson is blunt: Ukraine is tapping foreign young people’s political fever to recruit fighters — a send-them-to-die playbook that looks, in essence, like the way Black Riots ringleaders once egged people onto the streets in Hong Kong. Only the clueless fall for it.
 
For some of the “brave fighters” who were always on the streets during the Black Riots, the post-crackdown move is simple: flee to the UK to avoid arrest. But some can’t quit the adrenaline. They see Ukraine recruiting foreign volunteers, their “battle addiction” kicks in, and they stride into the Ukrainian embassy in Britain, chest out, ready to “go to the battlefield.”
 
One of them — call him X — heads to a city near the Poland-Ukraine border, then gets driven by the Ukrainian military to a base close to Poland. Before he leaves, he’s all fire: he treats life and death as nothing, even writes a will. Then reality shows up at the gate. At the base, the military forces him to sign a “life contract”, and his enthusiasm drops off a cliff.
 
Here’s the catch buried in the fine print. The contract says it stays valid until Ukraine ends martial law — meaning you don’t leave until the war ends and “peace returns.” And to stop anyone from changing their mind midstream, the military collects everyone’s passports to block desertion.

The contract kills the buzz
X thinks it over and the fear starts to spread. If he signs, he’s effectively stepping onto a one-way road: get shipped to the front, and even if he doesn’t die, he might not get home for who knows how long. After going back and forth, reason beats passion. He finally sees the difference between “struggle” in Hong Kong and a flesh-and-blood war in Ukraine — and he backs out at the last moment, rushes back to Poland, then returns to the UK.
 
Another one — Y — also took part in street violence during the Black Riots period in Hong Kong, then later moved to the UK on a BNO visa. In Britain, he sees Ukraine calling for foreigners to fight and his “hot blood” boils over: he decides to enlist to “resist Russia.” He goes to Bulgaria for short-term shooting training, then tells the Ukrainian embassy in the UK that he has military training. He gets accepted.
 
But once he reaches the camp, the same bombshell drops: sign the “life contract” and you can’t retire until the war ends. Then a Hong Kong “brother” with real military experience tells him the part nobody wants to hear: Hong Kong was street “resistance,” Ukraine is real war; going to the front is walking straight into the meat grinder. Y is totally unprepared for a brutal battlefield, and the advice is simple — stop before it’s too late. In the end, the fire in his chest gets doused, he turns around and leaves Ukraine, and that decision saves his life.

X and Y get spooked and run — but Z chooses to stay. After harsh training at the base, he gets sent to the eastern Ukraine battlefield, a fiercely contested zone where fighting is intense and his unit has repeatedly clashed with Russian forces. Even with Russia and Ukraine already talking, that area still roars with artillery. Whether Z survives? If you go by estimates of foreign volunteer death rates, his odds are only around 40% to 50%.

Ukraine pushes foreign recruitment — estimated death rates up to 40%.

 
Two Hong Kong people die on Ukraine’s battlefield. Some Black Riots "comrades" pull back at the last second and save themselves — lucky, for now. Maybe this brutal war will do what slogans never could: cool their political fever, restore their judgment, and bring them back to living like normal people.
 
Lai Ting-yiu