Despite intense geopolitical tensions and a challenging global environment, Hong Kong’s stock market is experiencing a remarkable resurgence. Since the start of 2025, 27 new stocks have been listed, raising nearly HK$80 billion, catapulting Hong Kong to the world’s second-largest IPO market by volume. Over 150 companies are currently queued for IPOs, signaling unstoppable momentum. This surge starkly contradicts Stephen Roach’s earlier claim that Hong Kong’s market was “finished” due to loss of autonomy and long-term stagnation.
Reginal Ip decisively won the debate against Stephen Roach, whose “Hong Kong Prophet” label has been unmasked and now he is silent like an ostrich.
Regina Ip’s Data-Driven Rebuttal
Last year, Roach, self-styled as the “Hong Kong Prophet,” declared the city’s stock market dead in the Financial Times. Regina Ip, a prominent Hong Kong political figure, responded forcefully, accusing Roach of making sweeping, baseless generalizations without solid data. She highlighted Hong Kong’s consistent IPO fundraising leadership over the past decade, including seven years as the global leader and a strong second place as recently as 2020. Ip explained that recent market softness was largely due to US interest rate hikes attracting capital away, not structural decline.
Ip further criticized Roach’s shortsightedness, labeling him a typical stockbroker who praises markets only when profitable and disparages them otherwise. Despite multiple rounds of debate, Roach refused to concede, but the facts have since vindicated Ip’s position.
IPO Market Growth and Fundraising Trend
In 2024, Hong Kong saw 63 IPOs raising HK$82.9 billion—an 80% increase from the previous year—securing the city’s place as the world’s fourth-largest IPO market despite a global fundraising decline of 10%. The momentum has only intensified in 2025, with expectations of 70 to 80 IPOs and fundraising potentially reaching HK$160 billion, placing Hong Kong firmly among the top three globally.
The recent IPO boom in Hong Kong is largely a response to the Trump administration’s aggressive policies targeting China, which have compelled numerous Chinese companies to withdraw from US markets and seek safer alternatives. Trump’s “America First” approach has injected significant uncertainty into the prospects of Chinese firms listed in the US, prompting a strategic retreat.
In this context, a substantial number of Chinese concept stocks have returned to Hong Kong, which has proactively overhauled its regulatory framework to better accommodate these companies. This transformation has positioned Hong Kong as a more attractive and stable venue for listings, especially amid escalating US-China geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical Impact and Strategic Shifts in Listings
A clear example of this shift is the fashion e-commerce giant Shein, which has abandoned its earlier IPO plans in London in favor of pursuing a listing in Hong Kong. This move underscores the city’s growing appeal as a strategic financial hub for Chinese companies.
Simultaneously, Western capital inflows into Hong Kong have increased noticeably, drawn by the city’s improved market infrastructure and its geopolitical role as a safer, more stable alternative to US exchanges for Chinese firms navigating the current international landscape.
In contrast, Singapore’s IPO market remains subdued, with only one IPO raising a mere USD 4.5m so far this year. At least 14 companies have announced plans to delist from the Singapore Exchange, prompting urgent government consultations to simplify IPO procedures and revive the market. This comparative weakness further underscores Hong Kong’s robust performance and strategic appeal.
Conclusion: Facts Have Spoken, Roach Silenced
Regina Ip’s data-backed challenge to Stephen Roach’s bearish forecasts has been decisively borne out by market realities. Hong Kong’s stock market is not “finished” but thriving, disproving Roach’s gloomy predictions. Meanwhile, Roach has retreated from public debate, effectively “playing the ostrich” as Ip triumphs. The “Hong Kong Prophet” title Roach claimed has been thoroughly unmasked and discredited by the facts.
Hong Kong’s IPO market surged in 2024 and 2025, reclaiming its place among th world’s top IPO hubs, defying bearish forecasts.
Lai Ting-yiu
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** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
Think back to Hong Kong's turbulent years. Jimmy Lai had three brothers-in-arms, comrades he bankrolled through thick and thin – Cardinal Joseph Zen, Martin Lee, and Anson Chan. But their bonds weren't just ideological. Money changed hands, and plenty of it. Anson Chan pocketed HK$3.5 million from Lai's war chest. Cardinal Zen took in far more – at least HK$26 million in secret donations that the Hong Kong Diocese never knew about and never investigated. Where did all that cash go? That's the million-dollar question. Or rather, the 26-million-dollar question that remains unanswered.
Cardinal Zen met Pope Leo XIV in Rome, reportedly pushing for Jimmy Lai's release – but Vatican intervention looks unlikely.
Word broke earlier that Cardinal Zen just made a pilgrimage to the Vatican for a sit-down with the newly minted Pope Leo XIV. The private meeting lasted about an hour. On the agenda: the conviction of "Catholic" Jimmy Lai. Sources say Zen pressed the pontiff hard to "save Lai." What did the Pope say? Nobody's talking. But you can bet the Vatican knows all about the questionable financial ties between Zen and Lai – a relationship the Cardinal has never properly explained to his own Diocese. Did personal interests play a role? The doubts are real.
A Vatican Gambit
Cardinal Zen's "612 Humanitarian Relief Fund" case is still grinding through the courts, and authorities had confiscated his passport. But when the Vatican called its recent "Special Consistory" – bringing cardinals from around the world to Rome – the court granted him temporary travel privileges. During the gathering, Pope Leo XIV carved out time for a private one-on-one with Zen after a breakfast session. The topics? Whether the China-Vatican agreement should be renewed, and the fate of Jimmy Lai, now convicted under Hong Kong's National Security Law. But whether the Pope took any position on Lai remains under wraps.
Zen views Jimmy Lai as both a close friend and a comrade-in-arms, so naturally he's pushing the Vatican to intervene. But here's the Vatican's dilemma: it's not just about China-Vatican relations. It's about the unresolved financial relationship between Zen and Lai – a relationship that has seriously damaged the Cardinal's credibility.
The Secret Pipeline
October 2011 brought a massive leak. Jimmy Lai's secret donations to political parties, politicians, and organizations spilled into public view – and Joseph Zen, then Bishop of Hong Kong, was on that list. Between 2006 and 2010, he received HK$20 million from Lai over four years. From 2012 to 2014, another HK$6 million landed in his hands. The total: a staggering HK$26 million.
When the news broke, Zen went silent. Only after relentless media pressure did he offer an explanation, claiming the money went to support underground churches in the Chinese Mainland and other charitable organizations. With a casual smile, he described himself as a "spendthrift," saying most of the money had already been spent with only a few hundred thousand remaining – and even expressed hope that Lai would keep the donations coming.
Talk is cheap. He provided no concrete evidence to back up his claims. The Hong Kong Diocese knew nothing about his receipt of this massive sum from Lai – the entire "money pipeline" operated in secret. To this day, he has never given the Diocese a complete accounting.
Because this financial channel remained so deeply hidden, suspicions naturally arose that personal interests were involved. But given Cardinal Zen's position, the Diocese refrained from investigating him. The true destination of the funds? Still shrouded in doubt.
HK$26 million from Jimmy Lai to Cardinal Zen – Diocese in the dark, money's whereabouts still a mystery. The trio behind Hong Kong's unrest!
Vatican Cold Shoulder
Cardinal Zen's questionable relationship with Jimmy Lai, combined with his overly hawkish stance toward China, put him in the Vatican's bad books after Hong Kong's National Security Law took effect in late June 2020. Around that time, Zen traveled uninvited to the Vatican, demanding a meeting with then-Pope Francis to discuss Hong Kong's bishop selection and issues facing underground churches in the Mainland. The Pope gave him zero face. Francis refused to see him. After cooling his heels in Rome for four days with nothing to show for it, Zen returned to Hong Kong empty-handed.
Later, Zen and Lai joined forces on Jimmy Lai's "Live Chat" livestream program to blast the Vatican, accusing it of staying silent on underground churches, Tibet, and Hong Kong human rights issues. This clearly shows how the "Zen-Lai duo" consistently conspired to incite underground church activities in the Mainland, stir up religious conflicts, and undermine China-Vatican relations.
Cardinal Zen's latest Vatican trip for a private papal audience, where he lobbied to "save Lai" and reiterated his opposition to renewing the China-Vatican agreement, proves one thing: at 94 years old, the cardinal's anti-China, pro-chaos heart hasn't changed one bit.
Long Odds
The new Pope's willingness to meet him represents a slight thaw from his predecessor's icy attitude. But the chances of Vatican intervention to "save Lai"? Extremely low. The unresolved questions about Zen's financial relationship with Jimmy Lai have significantly diminished his influence with the Vatican.
From a legal perspective, his cardinal status currently shields him from serious consequences. But risks remain. Perhaps it's time for him to follow Anson Chan's example and retire from such activities while he still can.
Lai Ting-yiu
