Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te delivered his 'Double Ten' speech on October 10. He vowed to increase defense investment aimed at 'deterring war' and said he would 'strengthen asymmetric combat power.' A mainland scholar cut straight to the point: the statement is a carefully packaged 'pursuit of independence through force.' In other words, Lai still intends to bind ordinary people to the war chariot.
Lai's Martial Talk Meets a Wary Public
But his martial posture clashes sharply with how the public actually feels. The latest data from the Legislative Yuan shows Taiwanese enlistment has fallen for three consecutive years, while paid early discharges have surged.
More and more people, especially Generation Z, including a number of entertainers, fear the risk of war and refuse to serve as cannon fodder for politicians.
Some legislators are asking a blunt question. If the situation worsens, who will operate the weapons that have been purchased?
Manpower Falls Below 80 Percent
Taiwan's military is running on empty. Data from the Budget Center of the Legislative Yuan shows that as of the end of June, the actual number of volunteer service members reached just 76.6 percent of authorized strength.
That marks three consecutive years below 80 percent.
Taiwan military volunteer force short for three straight years.
The shortfall cuts deep. It hits many types of front-line combat units, the very forces that can be deployed to the front at any time.
Legislators point to another warning sign: new recruits keep falling. The recruitment target has been lowered from 18,900 to 14,500. Yes, the success rate has risen. But that is just a numbers game. The number of new recruits actually enlisted keeps shrinking.
Paying to Get Out
In recent years, another severe problem has emerged in the military: more and more officers and soldiers are paying money for early discharge. The number rose from 40 people in 2018 to 846 last year, a 20-fold increase.
Over the past four-plus years, the amount paid by such draft evaders to 'free themselves' has totaled more than NT$900 million. One could say they spent money to avert disaster.
The mentality of evading military service has spread rapidly among the public in recent years. Last year, Taiwan's entertainment industry was rocked by a large-scale 'draft-dodging scandal.'
Behind the scenes, a brokerage group orchestrated a number of entertainers in forging false health reports, using extremely high blood pressure as a pretext to evade enlistment, commonly known as 'draft dodging.' The group included stars such as Wang Talu and Chen Bolin.
After four waves of investigative operations, law enforcement authorities indicted the entertainers involved starting in April this year. The matter sparked heated public discussion, but whether evading military service is right or wrong is a question that gives one pause.
A Demographic Cliff Meets a Draft-Dodging Norm
Taiwan's military manpower shortage is only just beginning. As the low birthrate trend intensifies, the pool of young people eligible for conscription shrinks year after year.
In 2024, the number of men reaching military service age fell below 100,000 for the first time. It will drop below 80,000 in 2027, and reach only about 70,000 by 2031.
By then, even willing recruits will struggle to close the gap. The problem runs deeper: draft evasion among young people has already become the norm.
Advanced Weapons, Not Enough Hands
The South China Morning Post asked an expert from the Taiwan International Strategic Studies Association how a manpower shortage affects combat capability. He said the Taiwan authorities have bought a batch of complex, advanced weapons from the United States. These systems demand more highly skilled operators and longer training times.
If manpower keeps falling below 80 percent of authorized strength, filling those roles will be extremely difficult. The result could be a predicament of having weapons but not enough people to use them. Another military expert also pointed out that this problem will reduce the effectiveness of military operations and greatly weaken combat capability.
Taiwan buys US weapons, lacks troops to use them.
Poll: Most Taiwanese Refuse to Be Cannon Fodder
Fewer and fewer Taiwanese are willing to serve. Various explanations get floated, from poor pay to young people's distaste for discipline. But the root cause is simpler: most people do not want to be "cannon fodder."
A month ago, Taiwan's Global Views Monthly ran a poll. One question asked: "Are you willing to go to the battlefield yourself or have your family members go?"
The results were blunt. 63.9 percent said they were "unwilling" or "very unwilling," and 45.9 percent chose the stronger answer. The message is clear: whatever slogans are shouted, the vast majority of Taiwan's people do not want to go to the front line and become political sacrifices.
Ukraine's Toll and the Question for Taiwan
Taiwanese people surely know how terrible war is. Ukraine is a vivid example right before their eyes. According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, from the start of the war in February 2022 to the end of last year, Ukrainian soldiers killed on the battlefield numbered between 100,000 and 140,000. The actual number may be even higher than estimated.
When the vast majority of Taiwan's people, except for a tiny handful of fanatics, see this heartbreaking and horrifying figure, will they still follow Lai Ching-te's delusion of "seeking independence through force" and let the flames of war burn in Taiwan?
Lai Ting-yiu
What Say You?
** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **
The United States has always seen itself as the most civilized nation of all, quick to brand other countries brutal and inhumane. Now two recent death-row executions have brought that moral high ground crashing down overnight.
Moral High Ground Shattered
First came Tennessee, which put a female death-row inmate to death. Two lethal injections failed. She suffered enormous torment, and the process showed no humanity whatsoever.
The other case is even more outrageous. The Department of Defense has decided to livestream the entire firing-squad execution of a prisoner. In nature, that is no different from the Islamic State releasing beheading videos.
That decision has inflamed the infighting between Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. At precisely this moment, Vance's confidant inside the Pentagon leaked to the media, laying bare the two men's old and new grudges. The livestreamed execution plan is merely the latest fuse. Plenty of drama is still to come.
Hegseth's livestream execution plan sparks GOP infighting.
Since Trump returned to power, the unthinkable has kept happening, one episode after another. The latest landed last Thursday, when the Department of Defense announced horrifying news. Hassan, a prisoner sentenced to death by a military court 17 years ago, will face a firing squad on December 3, with the entire process broadcast live by the media.
This deeply shocking execution "reality show" is being staged in public for the first time in history. It instantly ignited heated debate.
Defense Secretary Hegseth personally gave the green light to this unprecedented move. On "Real America's Voice," a conservative television network, he said: "We'll make sure that people are able to watch it, that it's public — because people need to understand that there's serious consequences for these types of things."
He said the execution would come at 1 p.m. on December 3, matching the date and
hour of the shooting 17 years earlier. It would unfold at the very site where the
attacker carried out his crime. And he added that he did not have to think at all to
make this decision. It was a "No-brainer".
Hassan worked as a psychiatrist at the base. Back then, he opened fire on the soldiers present, killing 13 people in all. Hegseth's decision to hold the execution at the same time and place is plainly "meeting violence with violence," and it carries a heavy scent of revenge.
Making the process public serves another purpose: fueling populist fury toward an "enemy of the state." The move echoes his casting of the attack on Iran as a "righteous crusade". The playbook is identical.
Hegseth was smug about announcing the public staging of his reality show. Far-right figures cheered him on enthusiastically. But objection erupted at once from political and religious circles.
Vice President Vance, long said to be at odds with Hegseth, tactfully voiced disapproval of the livestreamed execution. "I'm not going to be watching it," he said. He also hinted that the decision would very likely be withdrawn in the end: "I don't know that that's actually going to happen."
The upshot: senior White House officials are divided over the plan. Some have raised objections, and Vance is certainly one of them.
Republicans Revolt and Vance's Pentagon Confidant Breaks Silence
The dissent didn't stop inside Trump's team. Members of the Republican Party openly opposed the move as well, blasting Hegseth and showing no deference even to one of their own.
Senator John Curtis fired first on social media, aiming his warning squarely at the United States: "A civilization erodes when it cultivates an appetite for executions as a form of entertainment."
Tillis went further, likening the move to ISIS executing hostages. Only Islamic extremists livestream executions, he argued, and "public executions are what oppressive dictatorships like Iran and Afghanistan do. It should not be happening in America."
Of all the objections, Vance's stance was the most closely watched. Reports had been mounting that his conflict with Hegseth was deepening, and that he resented Hegseth's handling of senior military personnel. The livestreamed firing-squad controversy was merely the latest flashpoint.
One of the key figures behind the clash is Driscoll, Vance's confidant at the Defense Department and former Secretary of the Army. Once seen as a rising star, Driscoll was forced out by Hegseth and resigned in anger last month.
Driscoll tells Rolling Stone: Hegseth feared his Vance ties.
In an interview with Rolling Stone last week, Driscoll pulled back the curtain. His relationship with Vance, he revealed, made him unacceptable to Hegseth. Hegseth feared Vance might use Driscoll to threaten his own grip on the Defense Department, and so removed him.
Driscoll filled in the backstory. Early in his tenure as Secretary of the Army, he showed Hegseth his bargaining chip: a deep friendship with Vance. That bond, he argued, could help the Defense Department secure the new resources it needed from the White House.
Hegseth erupted the moment he heard it. Any contact with the White House, he declared, had to go through the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Driscoll said the episode triggered a serious conflict between the two of them.
The friendship between Driscoll and Vance runs deep. They grew close at Yale Law School. Driscoll then climbed fast through the military, served as an adviser to Vance after retiring, and the two remained tight.
He was appointed Secretary of the Army in February last year. Hegseth, aware of the "powerful backer" behind him, felt his own power under threat and had long been on edge.
Then came the spark. Reports at the time said Driscoll wanted to see Trump together with Vance so the three could discuss Army reform. When Hegseth got wind of it, he slammed the table and cursed, ordering Driscoll not to open any line to the White House on his own.
By February of this year, Driscoll had put forward his list of Army general promotions. Hegseth blocked it, seizing direct control of the Army's senior personnel management.
Two months later, Hegseth went further still and axed Driscoll's partner, Army Chief of Staff General George. From then on, the two men were irreconcilable. Driscoll had no choice but to resign in September, leaving the Pentagon in dismay.
Driscoll disclosed to Rolling Stone magazine that Hegseth runs the Defense Department as a "one-man show." Whether he agrees or not, he said, once Hegseth has made a decision, he has no power to change it.
In fact, what Hegseth dreads even more is Vance, the man threatening him from behind.
On the subject of livestreamed execution, a White House official says the "big boss," Trump, does not oppose it. But Trump could still change his mind. He is hearing out opinions from all sides before making a final call, which is why he said publicly that no decision has been made yet.
By the look of it, the internal fight is still far from settled.
Whatever the outcome of this episode, the split between Vance and Hegseth has deepened. The best of this infighting drama yet awaits.
Lai Ting-yiu
