Netanyahu's Last Stand: Trump's Iran Ally on the Brink

Israel votes today. Some 7.3 million voters will decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu, the political 'cat with nine lives,' finally runs out of them. Their ballots will also shape how the war against Iran is fought, and the whole region is watching.
 
Election Day Showdown
The numbers look grim for the incumbent. Netanyahu's camp trails slightly, while challenger Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, holds a narrow lead. If Eisenkot can pull the smaller parties into his corner, he could command 69 seats in parliament and push Netanyahu out the door.
 
Trump, meanwhile, is standing by Netanyahu to the very last moment. Eisenkot takes a very different line on the Iran war, and a change of government could leave Trump short a key partner in any future strike on Iran. It would also spell the end of his 'private secret alliance' with Netanyahu.

If Netanyahu falls, Trump loses his partner against Iran.

 
Netanyahu is fighting this battle with his back to the wall. Lose the premiership, and his protective shield shatters on the spot. Prison comes next.
 
He was indicted on corruption and bribery charges back in 2020. Since the trial opened, he has repeatedly delayed the proceedings by arguing the country is at war. Once he leaves office, the trial must start immediately, and a prison sentence looks highly likely.
 
This time he faces a formidable opponent, and the fight will not be easy. First, he carries the stain of corruption and perverting justice, and his credibility is in tatters. Second, the Israeli military is stuck in a quagmire, making no progress on three fronts: Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Critics accuse him of strategic blunders, and he has lost a large share of public support.
 
The latest poll spells out the damage. Fully 45% of respondents say Eisenkot is better suited to be prime minister. Only 33% back Netanyahu. That is a 12-point gap, two points wider than in the previous survey.
 
Playing the Trump Card
Desperate to turn the race around, Netanyahu is doubling down on the security card. On one flank he courts the far right. On the other, he plays up the Iranian threat, claiming Israel can wipe out this evil regime only under his leadership, with American firepower at its side.
 
He took the fear campaign to a chilling extreme. On the eve of the election, he posted an AI-generated image on social media showing Israel's capital destroyed by a nuclear bomb.
 
Netanyahu is also tying himself to Trump. "We still have two years of Trump left to complete the job with Iran," he said, by which he means finishing off the current Iranian regime for good.
 
"Future generations will not forgive us if we miss the historic window of opportunity that allows us to try and complete the most critical mission facing our generation," he warned.
 
US media report he even tried the same trick twice. He lobbied Trump to join forces for another strike on Iran before the Israeli election, hoping to power his campaign. Trump refused, and the plan collapsed.
 
Failing to talk Trump back into war, Netanyahu settled for second best. He begged his "comrade-in-arms" to publicly back his re-election. Trump happily obliged, urging Israeli voters to cast their ballots for "Bibi," Netanyahu's nickname, so the US and Israel can finish the "mission against Iran."
 
Why Trump Needs Bibi
Donald Trump is firmly behind "Bibi" and wants him to keep power. If Netanyahu falls, the United States will no longer find it as easy as before to team up with Israel for strikes on Iran. The reason: former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot brings a very different strategic outlook from Netanyahu's.
 
Netanyahu's goal has always been the same: topple Iran's current government and install a pro-American, pro-Israel regime. When the United States and Israel last joined forces in a "decapitation strike" on Iran's Supreme Leader, he was convinced the mission was accomplished. But the Iranian regime still stands, and he has not given up to this day.
 
His rival Gadi Eisenkot is a seasoned military strategist, and he sees things very differently. In his view, toppling the Iranian regime is simply not an achievable goal.

Challenger Eisenkot (second from right) differs sharply on Iran strategy.

Eisenkot proposes pairing military strikes with diplomacy, using a balanced strategy to end the war. He supports precision strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities but opposes restarting a full-scale war. Economic pressure on Iran, he argues, would give its leaders a "sense of failure" more effectively than round after round of military operations.
 
A Different Kind of Hawk
On teaming up with Washington, Eisenkot takes a very different line from Netanyahu. He insists that "Israel must focus on a future without relying on the US." In his view, the country cannot afford to be like Netanyahu, unable to defy Trump's wishes and stripped of its autonomy.
 
It can thus be seen that if he succeeds in taking power, he will not blindly follow Trump's orders to carry out his reckless military decisions.
 
The consequences would be real. The joint strikes on Iran of the past few months may not be repeatable. The US military could lose an arm, and future wars would be far harder to win.
 
The Kushner Connection
If Netanyahu loses, Trump takes another hit: the secret alliance built on their personal bond dies with it.
 
The tie ran deeper than politics. The elder Kushner, Trump's in-law, was an old family friend of Netanyahu. Through that connection, the younger Kushner made numerous investments in Israel, was entrusted by Trump with important work, and joined the US team negotiating with Iran.
 
Those personal channels shaped Washington's ties with Israel and its policy toward Iran and the wider Middle East.
 
If Israel gets a new prime minister, dealings with Trump lose the personal factor and become a new game. That might even help cool the Middle East down.
 
The Verdict Looms
The verdict arrives tomorrow, when the results of Israel's parliamentary election come in. Make no mistake: Netanyahu is the man who provoked this war with Iran.
 
His rival Gadi Eisenkot is a hardliner too. But he is, at least, the more pragmatic of the two, and less cunning. If I had a vote, Bibi would not get it.

Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

Donald Trump is campaigning like a man in a bar fight. Wall Street Journal reporters tailing him watched him sprint through seven rallies in seven days to drum up votes, emerging with bruises on his hands and face. The damage tells the story: the Republican Party's midterm prospects are "truly in dire straits."
 
Dire Odds
Democratic Party leaders, meanwhile, smell victory. According to disclosures by The New York Times, they have already drawn up action plans for the "first 100 hours" and "first 100 days" after winning. The agenda is aggressive: swiftly overturn Trump's tariff measures, halt the Iran war, and rigorously investigate his corrupt misdeeds.
 
And they won't stop there. They plan to strip away his claws by bringing down Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. With the situation this bad, no wonder Trump is fighting for his life.

Trump's seven rallies in seven days: GOP midterms in trouble.

The betting markets tell the same bleak story for Republicans. Polymarket's latest forecast gives the Democrats a 92% chance of taking the House of Representatives and a 65% chance of taking the Senate. That tracks closely with recent polling trends.
 
The Cook Report, an election analysis firm, reads it the same way. Given the Democrats' current position, winning half the seats in the House is all but a lock. The Senate is a bigger ask, but if Democrats can win a few fiercely contested "red states" (Republican strongholds), the tide could turn. Right now, it's hardly out of reach.
 
The 100-Hour Blitz
The New York Times reports that Democrats, with victory in sight and control of the House their minimum prize, have already drawn up action plans for the "first 100 hours" and "first 100 days" after winning. The goal: overturn Trump's decisions at lightning speed.
 
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries plans to move the moment the chamber reconvenes, rolling out several priority bills. First, kill Trump's tariff measures and hand the lead on trade policy back to Congress. Second, demand that he end the war against Iran, with any new conflict requiring congressional authorization. Third, reverse nearly $1 trillion in cuts to the federal Medicaid program.

Obama blasts Trump as warlike, corrupt, harmful to people.

With Democrats expected to hold a majority of House seats, passage there is a lock. The Senate is where the math gets ugly. Republicans will likely try to block the bills, but a measure backed by a clear majority of public opinion could still squeak through if the vote count is razor-thin.
At that point, Trump would face enormous pressure and could be forced to back down.

Follow the Money
Trump has another nightmare on the horizon. Democrats plan to use their first 100 days after winning to beef up congressional oversight of the president and the executive branch, digging hard into corruption.
 
The target list runs long: the web of favors flowing to Trump, the crypto "money stream" reaching him and his family, and whether hidden interests lurk behind government contracts handed out without public bidding.
 
If Democrats dig deep into Trump's "money kingdom," the dark corners could yield major finds. On Forbes' rich list this year, his net worth hit US$6.5 billion, up from just US$2.1 billion in 2020.
 
The takeaway is stark: his fortune ballooned after his return to power. The claim that he never abused his office for personal gain? Good luck finding anyone who buys that.
 
Claws and Coffers
To the victor go the spoils. The Democrats have another move planned: clipping Trump's claws. The Wall Street Journal reports that if the party wins control of the House of Representatives, it will push for a vote to impeach Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth once the chamber reconvenes on November 9.
 
Even if the vote passes the House, the case will have to go to the Senate. Removal requires a two-thirds majority there, so the odds of success are slim.
 
But that is not really the point. The goal is to knock the wind out of Hegseth's sails and further weaken Trump's authority for the rest of his term.
 
A Democratic victory would also tighten the screws on Trump's fiscal agenda. Tax cuts and similar measures would face obstacle after obstacle.
 
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, says the Democratic Party may introduce new tax legislation and could even repeal the new tax-cut items in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The fight over the debt ceiling is bound to intensify as well.
If that happens, the government's fiscal woes will sink even deeper.

Republican Revolt
Trump is not just up against a Democratic Party out for blood. If Republicans capsize in these midterms, anger inside the party over his drag on the ticket will boil over, and the internal split will only widen.
 
The cracks are already showing. A leaked recording from a closed-door meeting caught Paxton, a Republican Senate candidate in Texas, saying bluntly that Trump's war on Iran sent gasoline and diesel prices soaring, and that this was the main factor weighing down his campaign.
 
Paxton is not alone. Reuters reports that some Republican candidates break with Trump on at least one policy issue, mostly the Iran war. They are calling for a quick end to the war, a direct rebuke of the president.
 
If Republicans ultimately lose the midterms, that fury will burn through the party and turn the rift with Trump into open conflict.
 
If Democrats really do stop the Iran war and overturn the tariffs after the midterm elections, it would be a crushing defeat for Trump. And much of the world would cheer.

Lai Ting-yiu