Trump has just signed an executive order on Monday (July 7) locally, sending letters to 14 countries extending the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" 90-day grace period, postponing the original July 9 deadline to August 1. With Trump's tariff threats looming over global commerce, a bold Canadian academic is making waves by suggesting the unthinkable: kick the United States out of the World Trade Organization entirely. It's a radical idea that's got people talking; frankly, it might not be as crazy as it sounds.
The Case for Calling America's Bluff
Professor Kristen Hopewell from the University of British Columbia (UBC) isn't mincing words. Writing in Politico Europe just as Trump was threatening to slap 50% tariffs on EU goods, she's arguing that the US has essentially become a "rogue state on trade" that's making a mockery of the entire global trading system.
Professor Kristen Hopewell from the University of British Columbia, Canada, published an article calling on member countries to kick the US out of the WTO to save the global economy.
The timing couldn't be more dramatic. Trump’s grace period to August 1 is nothing more than classic Trump theater, really. But Hopewell's point stands: this isn't just about one president's trade tantrums anymore. It's about whether the international trading system can survive when its most powerful member basically ignores all the rules.
The article notes that as early as Trump's first term, he vigorously promoted unilateral and trade protectionist policies, and his criticism of international organizations including the WTO and WHO has never ceased. As an organization that arbitrates trade disputes, the WTO has long been bound and constrained by the US.
Her argument is pretty straightforward when you think about it. The US has already paralyzed the WTO's appeals mechanism by blocking appointments to the Appellate Body. They've been trampling on international trade rules left and right. Remember the Smoot-Hawley Tarriff Act? So, no wonder why countries and scholars are bringing up the question: why should they get to keep enjoying all the benefits of WTO membership while acting like a bull in a china shop?
According to Article 10 of the Marrakesh Agreement regarding amendment provisions, if two-thirds of members vote to amend the agreement, the US can be expelled.
How You Actually Kick Someone Out of the WTO
Lets take another closer look from the legal perspective. The WTO doesn't exactly have a "you're expelled" button, but Hopewell points out there's a workaround through Article X of the Marrakesh Agreement. Basically, if two-thirds of WTO members vote to amend the agreement, they could theoretically boot the US out. If America refuses to accept the amendment, it would take a three-quarters majority.
It's never been done before, but then again, we've never had a situation quite like this either. We're talking about a complete abandonment of the post-war trading order that America itself helped create.
WTO members must unite to clearly reject Trump's trade aggression and indicate that this is intolerable, and the only way to maintain the system is to expel or suspend the US's WTO membership.
The Economic Reality Check
Now, you might think losing the US would kill the WTO, but Hopewell makes a compelling counterargument. American trade only accounts for about one-tenth of global trade, and the system could actually function better without a member that's constantly breaking the rules and encouraging others to do the same.
Think about it this way: if Trump can impose massive tariffs with impunity, why should anyone else follow WTO rules? The real danger isn't just America's protectionism - it's the contagion effect where other countries start thinking they can break the rules too.
Without WTO membership, the US would lose access to preferential tariffs, face unlimited punitive measures from other countries, and lose the intellectual property protections that underpin much of its high-tech dominance. That's some serious economic leverage right there.
The Bigger Picture: A World Without America?
Hopewell's proposal isn't just about punishment - it's about calling Trump's bluff. The president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the WTO anyway, so why not beat him to the punch? Strip away the membership benefits, make America an "international pariah" on trade, and suddenly those tariff threats might not look so appealing to American businesses.
The scholar argues that supporters of multilateral trade need to fight back and defend the system rather than just hoping Trump will eventually come around. With the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism already crippled by US obstruction, maybe it's time for the rest of the world to move forward without America.
It's a bold gambit, and there's no guarantee it would work. But as global trade teeters on the edge of a cliff, perhaps extraordinary times really do call for extraordinary measures.
Deep Throat
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
Trump wasted not one second after US forces grabbed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. He made it clear that he was eyeing the country's oil riches. But here's the catch: America's biggest oil companies aren't biting. Industry analysts confirm what the companies won't say publicly—even if these firms wanted back in, Venezuela's crumbling infrastructure and chaos on the ground mean Trump's fantasy of quick oil profits is far from easy to come true.
Trump promises Big Oil will pour billions into Venezuela. The oil giants say they never got the memo. AP Photo
Minutes after the military operation wrapped, Trump stood at a press conference making promises. Major American oil companies would pour into Venezuela, he declared, investing billions to fix the country's shattered oil infrastructure "and start making money for the country". Meanwhile, he reiterated that the US embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains in full effect.
Those sanctions have crushed Venezuelan exports into paralysis. Documents from Venezuela's state oil company and sources close to the situation confirm storage tanks and floating facilities filled up fast over recent weeks. Multiple oil fields now face forced production cuts.
White House Courts Reluctant Executives
Reuters revealed the Trump administration plans meetings this week with executives from major US oil companies. The agenda: pushing these firms to restore and grow oil production in Venezuela following the military action. The White House sees this as a critical step toward getting American oil giants back into the country to tap the world's largest proven oil reserves.
But Trump's eagerness hasn't translated into corporate enthusiasm. Several major US oil companies are taking a wait-and-see approach, watching Venezuela closely. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron all denied any prior communication with the White House about Venezuela. This directly contradicts Trump's claim over the weekend that he had already met with "all" US oil firms both before and after Maduro's capture.
Venezuela sits on roughly 17% of the world's proven oil reserves—first place globally. Yet US sanctions and other pressures have gutted its production capacity. Current output runs around 1 million barrels daily, barely 0.8% of global crude production.
World's largest oil reserves, strangled by US sanctions. Trump's quick-profit scheme hits a hard reality. AP Photo
Only One Company Stays Put
Chevron remains the sole major US oil company still operating Venezuelan fields. The firm has worked in Venezuela for over a century, producing heavy crude that feeds refineries along the Gulf Coast and beyond. A company spokesperson said on the 3rd that the current priority centers on "ensuring employee safety, well-being, and asset integrity," adding they "will continue to operate in accordance with laws and regulations."
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips previously invested in Venezuela. In the 1970s, the Venezuelan government nationalized the oil industry, reopened to foreign investment by century's end, then demanded in 2007 that Western companies developing oil fields form joint ventures with Venezuelan firms under Venezuelan control. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips pulled out. Neither company has responded to Trump's latest remarks about US capital entering Venezuela.
One oil industry executive told Reuters that companies fear discussing potential Venezuelan business at White House-organized meetings due to antitrust concerns.
Benefits Flow to First Mover
Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, expects Chevron would likely benefit first if Venezuela opens oil projects to the US. Other oil companies, he notes, will watch Venezuela's political situation closely and observe the operating environment and contract compliance before making moves.
Mark Christian, business director at an Oklahoma energy consulting firm, lays out the baseline: US companies will only return to Venezuela if they're certain of investment returns and receive at least minimal security guarantees. Lifting sanctions on Venezuela stands as a prerequisite for US companies re-entering that market.
Reality Check on Oil Profits
Even with sanctions lifted, the Trump administration won't find making money from invasion-acquired oil that easy.
Industry insiders admit large-scale restoration of Venezuelan oil production demands years of time and billions in investment, while confronting major obstacles: dilapidated infrastructure, uncertain political prospects, legal risks, and long-term US policy uncertainty.
Peter McNally, global head of industry analysis at Third Bridge, said, "There are still many questions that need to be answered about the state of the Venezuelan oil industry, but it is clear that it will take tens of billions of dollars to turn that industry around." He then added that it could take at least a decade of Western oil majors committing to the country.
Ed Hirs, an energy expert at the University of Houston, pointed to a pattern: US military invasions of other countries in recent years haven't delivered substantial returns to American companies. The history of Iraq and Libya may repeat itself in Venezuela.
