UBC Professor Says Trump’s Trade War Demands WTO Expulsion

Trump has just signed an executive order on Monday (July 7) locally, sending letters to 14 countries extending the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" 90-day grace period, postponing the original July 9 deadline to August 1. With Trump's tariff threats looming over global commerce, a bold Canadian academic is making waves by suggesting the unthinkable: kick the United States out of the World Trade Organization entirely. It's a radical idea that's got people talking; frankly, it might not be as crazy as it sounds.

The Case for Calling America's Bluff

Professor Kristen Hopewell from the University of British Columbia (UBC) isn't mincing words. Writing in Politico Europe just as Trump was threatening to slap 50% tariffs on EU goods, she's arguing that the US has essentially become a "rogue state on trade" that's making a mockery of the entire global trading system.

Professor Kristen Hopewell from the University of British Columbia, Canada, published an article calling on member countries to kick the US out of the WTO to save the global economy.

The timing couldn't be more dramatic. Trump’s grace period to August 1 is nothing more than classic Trump theater, really. But Hopewell's point stands: this isn't just about one president's trade tantrums anymore. It's about whether the international trading system can survive when its most powerful member basically ignores all the rules.

The article notes that as early as Trump's first term, he vigorously promoted unilateral and trade protectionist policies, and his criticism of international organizations including the WTO and WHO has never ceased. As an organization that arbitrates trade disputes, the WTO has long been bound and constrained by the US.

Her argument is pretty straightforward when you think about it. The US has already paralyzed the WTO's appeals mechanism by blocking appointments to the Appellate Body. They've been trampling on international trade rules left and right. Remember the Smoot-Hawley Tarriff Act? So, no wonder why countries and scholars are bringing up the question: why should they get to keep enjoying all the benefits of WTO membership while acting like a bull in a china shop?

According to Article 10 of the Marrakesh Agreement regarding amendment provisions, if two-thirds of members vote to amend the agreement, the US can be expelled.

How You Actually Kick Someone Out of the WTO

Lets take another closer look from the legal perspective. The WTO doesn't exactly have a "you're expelled" button, but Hopewell points out there's a workaround through Article X of the Marrakesh Agreement. Basically, if two-thirds of WTO members vote to amend the agreement, they could theoretically boot the US out. If America refuses to accept the amendment, it would take a three-quarters majority.

It's never been done before, but then again, we've never had a situation quite like this either. We're talking about a complete abandonment of the post-war trading order that America itself helped create.

WTO members must unite to clearly reject Trump's trade aggression and indicate that this is intolerable, and the only way to maintain the system is to expel or suspend the US's WTO membership.

The Economic Reality Check

Now, you might think losing the US would kill the WTO, but Hopewell makes a compelling counterargument. American trade only accounts for about one-tenth of global trade, and the system could actually function better without a member that's constantly breaking the rules and encouraging others to do the same.

Think about it this way: if Trump can impose massive tariffs with impunity, why should anyone else follow WTO rules? The real danger isn't just America's protectionism - it's the contagion effect where other countries start thinking they can break the rules too.

Without WTO membership, the US would lose access to preferential tariffs, face unlimited punitive measures from other countries, and lose the intellectual property protections that underpin much of its high-tech dominance. That's some serious economic leverage right there.

The Bigger Picture: A World Without America?

Hopewell's proposal isn't just about punishment - it's about calling Trump's bluff. The president has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the WTO anyway, so why not beat him to the punch? Strip away the membership benefits, make America an "international pariah" on trade, and suddenly those tariff threats might not look so appealing to American businesses.

The scholar argues that supporters of multilateral trade need to fight back and defend the system rather than just hoping Trump will eventually come around. With the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism already crippled by US obstruction, maybe it's time for the rest of the world to move forward without America.

It's a bold gambit, and there's no guarantee it would work. But as global trade teeters on the edge of a cliff, perhaps extraordinary times really do call for extraordinary measures.

Deep Throat

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Trump just rolled out another tariff threat, and this time Iran's trading partners are in his crosshairs. On January 12, the US president announced a blanket 25% tariff on any country "doing business" with Tehran.

The international press immediately fixated on China—Iran's biggest trade partner. Reuters warned this could reignite the US–China trade war and shred the fragile truce both sides hammered out last year. But Chinese scholars aren't buying it. They say Trump lacks the nerve to slap Beijing with new tariffs, because China will hit back hard—and make him regret it.

Anti-government protests erupt in Iran. (AP photo)

The Financial Times reported on January 12 that these tariffs—which took effect immediately—could slam China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Brazil, and Iraq. All of them trade heavily with Iran. Russia sealed a new free trade deal with Iran in 2025, making it another potential target.

CNN pointed out the stakes for Beijing. China trades with both Iran and the US, so if Washington applies these tariffs, Chinese goods entering America could see costs spike. The network recalled that after last year's summit in Busan, South Korea, the Chinese and US presidents agreed to pause portions of their tariff war—a temporary truce.

Iran as Flashpoint, Again

Reuters published a piece on January 13 titled "Trump's Iran Tariff Threat Risks Reopening China Rift." The article traced how Iran became a powder keg in US–China relations during Trump's first term (2017–2021).

Back then, Washington tightened sanctions on Tehran and blacklisted Huawei, accusing the Chinese telecom giant of selling tech to Iran. That led to the arrest of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei's daughter, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada—triggering a diplomatic crisis and sending bilateral tensions through the roof.

Now Trump's targeting Iran again. If he follows through, total US tariffs on Chinese exports could exceed 70%—way higher than the rates both sides agreed to last October when they dialed down their trade fight.

It's still unclear which countries or entities Trump will actually target. He hasn't named China explicitly. But Reuters noted Trump has a track record of making bombastic statements that could upend US foreign policy—only to back off later.

US–China "truce" forged in Busan last year now at risk if Trump's Iran tariffs target Beijing. (AP file photo)

Beijing Calls Trump's Bluff

Wu Xinbo, Dean of Fudan University's School of International Relations, told Reuters that China sees through Trump's posturing. "China will call (Trump's) bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China, and if he does, China will retaliate and he will be punished," said Wu.

Another Chinese scholar pushed back on the narrative that China and Iran are economically intertwined, noting that "China and Iran are not as close as in the public imagination".

China Customs data backs that up. Beijing has dramatically reduced imports from Iran in recent years. Through November last year, China imported just 2.9 billion USD worth of Iranian goods—a far cry from the 21 billion USD peak in 2018, during Trump's first presidency.

Some sources claim China's major oil companies stopped doing business with Iran in 2022. Yet China's purchases from Tehran still run into the billions, thanks to independent refiners handling shipments.

China as Convenient Scapegoat

Wang Jin, a researcher at Beijing's Dialogue Think Tank, told reporters that "China is just an excuse, a kind of disguise for the Trump administration, to impose new pressure (on) Iran."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's tariff threat on January 13. She stated that China's position on tariffs is crystal clear: tariff wars produce no winners. Beijing will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests.

Analysts warn that Trump's renewed attempt to cut Iran off from global trade could heighten worries about the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran serves as a strategic hub for Chinese goods heading to the Middle East.

This tariff gambit has cast doubt on Trump's planned April visit to China. Observers had expected him to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing during that trip.

The Wall Street Journal echoed Reuters' concerns, warning that new tariffs on Iran's trading partners could wreck the US–China trade truce.

But Reuters also cited Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who questioned whether Trump's tariff policy is even enforceable. "Last year he announced tariffs related to 'illicit' Russian oil trade, but their implementation was patchy." Xu said.

He went on stating that "Trump is also the kind of person who likes bullying the weak," Xu said. "He should manage his actions to avoid these tariffs escalating into direct confrontation with China".