It’s official. The political bromance between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is dead and buried. Following a bitter feud over what Trump dubbed a “big and beautiful” tax and spending bill, the two have publicly and messily “divorced.” The fallout has been spectacular, with Trump threatening to deport the South African-born billionaire and Musk hitting back by launching his own “America Party,” aiming to smash the two-party system. This political theatre has, of course, kicked the rumour mill into overdrive, with a report from the South China Morning Post asking the million-dollar question: could Elon Musk actually move his tech empire to China?
The public fallout between Trump and Musk has everyone asking the big question: could the billionaire really up sticks and move his empire to China? AP File Photo
China on the Horizon?
According to Denis Simon, a fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, the escalating drama could certainly push Musk to look abroad. If the pressure from a Trump administration mounts over regulation, taxes, or subsidies, shifting parts of his research, development, or manufacturing arms isn't out of the question. While Simon notes that national security hurdles and export controls would make a complete relocation to China impossible, a piecemeal migration of manufacturing, knowledge, and symbolic partnerships is very much on the cards.
Of all his ventures, Tesla seems the most likely candidate for a move to China, but shifting its core technology would undoubtedly cause a political firestorm back in Washington. AP File Photo
When you look at the board, moving the electric vehicle giant, Tesla, seems like the most obvious play. China has it all: a world-class EV supply chain, massive policy incentives, and a huge consumer base hungry for electric cars. However, it's not that simple. Handing over the keys to Tesla's entire library of intellectual property would trigger a political earthquake in Washington. That being said, Tesla's presence has already supercharged China’s domestic EV scene, even if its own market share has been squeezed. After commanding over 16% of the Chinese EV market in 2020, fierce competition from local champions like BYD and Xpeng saw Tesla's slice of the pie shrink to just 6% last year.
A Reality Check on a Tech Exodus
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Anyone thinking Musk can just parachute into China and take over is mistaken. According to Zhou Yu, a professor at Vassar College, China is now arguably ahead of the United States in electric vehicle technology. She argues that a full-scale R&D transfer would be a tough sell, making an expansion of Musk's existing Chinese operations a more likely scenario. But even then, he'd be entering a highly mature and competitive ecosystem where there's little room left for one man to shake things up significantly.
Beyond the EV business, the idea of moving other ventures is even more far-fetched, especially when it comes to SpaceX. The company is so deeply woven into the fabric of America’s national defense, satellite networks, and space program that it is fundamentally non-transferable. As Simon puts it, if Musk even attempted to shift critical space technology to a geopolitical rival, he’d "risk being seen as a threat to [U.S.] national security." Game over, basically.
Musk's other big ideas, like the brain-computer interface (BCI) company Neuralink and the Hyperloop transport network, face their own hurdles in China. Neuralink, which recently shared progress on its "Telepathy" trials, is pushing the boundaries of science, but its path in China would be fraught with challenges. As for the Hyperloop, Simon bluntly notes that the concept has been more successful as a source of inspiration than a practical project. China is already a global leader in high-speed rail, but a Hyperloop prototype there could still serve as a tech demo.
Neuralink, Musk's ambitious brain-computer interface firm.
The Ultimate Propaganda Win for Beijing
For China to benefit from all this, however, it may not need Musk’s investment or even his allegiance. The sheer spectacle of his marginalization in the U.S. is a propaganda gift for Beijing. It reinforces China's own narrative that it offers a stable, goal-oriented environment for innovation, free from the ideological squabbles and political chaos of the West. This is a powerful message aimed not just at foreign investors, but at the thousands of young Chinese scientists working in America and at other nations looking for a different development path.
This narrative is already taking hold. After Trump and his allies threatened to deport Musk, Chinese social media lit up with messages of welcome. "If he has no country, China welcomes Musk, and Tesla cars will become cheaper," wrote one user. Another added, "Then come to China. China will definitely welcome such rich, creative, and innovative talent."
The whole saga was reignited by Trump's social media attack on the government subsidies Musk's companies have received—a whopping $38 billion in contracts, loans, and tax credits, according to The Washington Post. Trump even threatened a new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) investigation. While Musk's birth in South Africa and his Canadian citizenship technically make him deportable, the legal and political nightmare it would unleash means it's a threat that will almost certainly remain just that—a threat. But it's precisely this kind of political drama that keeps the speculation mill turning.
Deep Throat
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