IMEC “On Ice”: America's Anti-Belt and Road Dream Just Fell Flat

Remember America started its own Belt and Road Initiative two years ago? Yeah, that didn't work out so well.

Two years ago, the US was beating its chest about this brilliant "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor" (IMEC) that would supposedly crush China's Belt and Road Initiative. Western media went wild calling it a strategic masterstroke. Fast forward to today, and this supposedly game-changing infrastructure project has basically flatlined against the backdrop of complex geopolitics and diverse interests.

The Big Launch That Led Nowhere

Back in September 2023 at the New Delhi G20 summit, America rolled out this grand plan with India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the EU. Railways, pipelines, power systems spanning from the Indian Ocean through the Persian Gulf to Europe - Biden himself called it "a real big deal". The whole thing was marketed as the new Spice Route that would change everything.

The handshake that meant nothing: Biden, Modi, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2023.

Western pundits immediately framed it as the ultimate counter to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Biden was practically gloating about how this would deliver “game-changing regional investment” for everyone involved.

But here we are two years later, and not only has nothing substantial happened, but the whole thing has been pushed to the side as Middle Eastern tensions and great power competition took over.

When Your Key Partners Walk Away

The UAE was supposed to be a cornerstone of this whole operation. Then Gaza happened, and suddenly UAE-Israel relations went straight into the freezer. UAE officials started openly slamming Israel's West Bank actions as crossing "red lines" and basically declared that extremist forces had trashed the Abraham Accords.

When Israel decided to bomb Hamas leadership in Doha, that really set off the Gulf states. The UAE President and his ministers personally flew to Qatar to show solidarity, publicly opposing Israel. As experts point out, Israel is basically throwing away hard-won cooperation opportunities - relations are now at rock bottom.

Saudi Arabia has done a complete 180 too. They had promised $20 billion for this corridor, but after the whole invasion of Gaza, they made Palestinian statehood a non-negotiable condition for any normalization with Israel. The railway investments? Suspended. After Israel hit Doha, Riyadh went even further, declaring it would stand with Qatar 'without limits' and harness 'all capabilities' for Qatar's response."

So the corridor that was supposed to depend on Middle Eastern cooperation now has its foundation completely shaken by regional conflicts.

India Plays It Safe

Unlike the UAE and Saudi Arabia backing away, India recently signed a bilateral investment deal with Israel. On paper, this looks like they're keeping some hope alive for the corridor. But both countries completely avoided mentioning the corridor in their joint statement. Delhi clearly doesn't want to stick its neck out too far.

Researchers are calling India's approach more like a mere kept-up appearance. Fair enough - unlike the UAE and Saudi Arabia, India doesn't have to deal with the direct political fallout from Middle Eastern conflicts. For Israel, getting any agreement with India counts as some kind of diplomatic win. But this barely dents the overall decline.

America Loses Interest Fast

Here's where it gets really telling - the US, which started this whole thing, has basically lost the will to grind on its own project.

Trump promised India's PM he'd convene a summit within six months after taking office. That deadline came and went and nothing happened. Instead, Washington's focus shifted to slapping high tariffs on India and dealing with Middle Eastern drama. When Trump visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he didn't even bother mentioning the corridor plan.

Analysts point out that this project was originally America's key tool for pushing the Abraham Accords and improving Israel-Saudi relations. But now? The US hasn't just failed to resolve contradictions - it's actually made regional uncertainty worse through its policy flip-flopping.

Turkiye Swoops In

While America sits there twiddling its thumbs, Turkiye is actively pushing forward with its own "Iraq-Turkiye-Europe Development Road Project". This corridor aims to connect Turkiye with the Gulf region through Iraq. Especially after the Kurdistan Workers' Party dissolved, Ankara sees a golden opportunity to advance this project.

Turkiye's "Development Road" - while America fumbles, Ankara moves ahead with its own grand plan.

Turkiye's moves aren't just intensifying competition with Israel - they're also annoying India. The route Ankara is promoting could seriously impact India's original strategic vision of connecting to Europe through Iran, Armenia, and Russia.

Europe Can't Make Up Its Mind

The EU's commitment to this project has been half-hearted at best. Initially, Greece, Italy, and France were fighting over who would dominate the maritime hubs, but they ended up just dumping responsibility on some subordinate team within the European Commission.

More problematically, some European diplomats are now demanding that Israel allow Palestinian participation in corridor construction. Obviously, Israel isn't going to accept that condition under current circumstances.

European analysts are even acknowledging that the corridor project is literally 'on ice'. One of them went a step further and called it “collasped”.

Reality: Strategic Failure

The IMEC was supposed to be America's big answer to the Belt and Road Initiative. Two years later? Virtually zero progress. Middle Eastern conflicts drove away key partners, US interest evaporated, Europe can't decide what it wants, and Turkiye is busy promoting its own alternative.

Looking back now, this supposedly "game-changing" corridor didn't just fail to achieve its intended effect - it's actually exposed the limitations of the US and its allies when it comes to regional cooperation. As one analyst put it: as long as the Gaza war continues, this plan can't possibly get off the ground.

Deep Throat

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Trump just rolled out another tariff threat, and this time Iran's trading partners are in his crosshairs. On January 12, the US president announced a blanket 25% tariff on any country "doing business" with Tehran.

The international press immediately fixated on China—Iran's biggest trade partner. Reuters warned this could reignite the US–China trade war and shred the fragile truce both sides hammered out last year. But Chinese scholars aren't buying it. They say Trump lacks the nerve to slap Beijing with new tariffs, because China will hit back hard—and make him regret it.

Anti-government protests erupt in Iran. (AP photo)

The Financial Times reported on January 12 that these tariffs—which took effect immediately—could slam China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Brazil, and Iraq. All of them trade heavily with Iran. Russia sealed a new free trade deal with Iran in 2025, making it another potential target.

CNN pointed out the stakes for Beijing. China trades with both Iran and the US, so if Washington applies these tariffs, Chinese goods entering America could see costs spike. The network recalled that after last year's summit in Busan, South Korea, the Chinese and US presidents agreed to pause portions of their tariff war—a temporary truce.

Iran as Flashpoint, Again

Reuters published a piece on January 13 titled "Trump's Iran Tariff Threat Risks Reopening China Rift." The article traced how Iran became a powder keg in US–China relations during Trump's first term (2017–2021).

Back then, Washington tightened sanctions on Tehran and blacklisted Huawei, accusing the Chinese telecom giant of selling tech to Iran. That led to the arrest of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei's daughter, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada—triggering a diplomatic crisis and sending bilateral tensions through the roof.

Now Trump's targeting Iran again. If he follows through, total US tariffs on Chinese exports could exceed 70%—way higher than the rates both sides agreed to last October when they dialed down their trade fight.

It's still unclear which countries or entities Trump will actually target. He hasn't named China explicitly. But Reuters noted Trump has a track record of making bombastic statements that could upend US foreign policy—only to back off later.

US–China "truce" forged in Busan last year now at risk if Trump's Iran tariffs target Beijing. (AP file photo)

Beijing Calls Trump's Bluff

Wu Xinbo, Dean of Fudan University's School of International Relations, told Reuters that China sees through Trump's posturing. "China will call (Trump's) bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China, and if he does, China will retaliate and he will be punished," said Wu.

Another Chinese scholar pushed back on the narrative that China and Iran are economically intertwined, noting that "China and Iran are not as close as in the public imagination".

China Customs data backs that up. Beijing has dramatically reduced imports from Iran in recent years. Through November last year, China imported just 2.9 billion USD worth of Iranian goods—a far cry from the 21 billion USD peak in 2018, during Trump's first presidency.

Some sources claim China's major oil companies stopped doing business with Iran in 2022. Yet China's purchases from Tehran still run into the billions, thanks to independent refiners handling shipments.

China as Convenient Scapegoat

Wang Jin, a researcher at Beijing's Dialogue Think Tank, told reporters that "China is just an excuse, a kind of disguise for the Trump administration, to impose new pressure (on) Iran."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's tariff threat on January 13. She stated that China's position on tariffs is crystal clear: tariff wars produce no winners. Beijing will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests.

Analysts warn that Trump's renewed attempt to cut Iran off from global trade could heighten worries about the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran serves as a strategic hub for Chinese goods heading to the Middle East.

This tariff gambit has cast doubt on Trump's planned April visit to China. Observers had expected him to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing during that trip.

The Wall Street Journal echoed Reuters' concerns, warning that new tariffs on Iran's trading partners could wreck the US–China trade truce.

But Reuters also cited Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who questioned whether Trump's tariff policy is even enforceable. "Last year he announced tariffs related to 'illicit' Russian oil trade, but their implementation was patchy." Xu said.

He went on stating that "Trump is also the kind of person who likes bullying the weak," Xu said. "He should manage his actions to avoid these tariffs escalating into direct confrontation with China".