IMEC “On Ice”: America's Anti-Belt and Road Dream Just Fell Flat

Remember America started its own Belt and Road Initiative two years ago? Yeah, that didn't work out so well.

Two years ago, the US was beating its chest about this brilliant "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor" (IMEC) that would supposedly crush China's Belt and Road Initiative. Western media went wild calling it a strategic masterstroke. Fast forward to today, and this supposedly game-changing infrastructure project has basically flatlined against the backdrop of complex geopolitics and diverse interests.

The Big Launch That Led Nowhere

Back in September 2023 at the New Delhi G20 summit, America rolled out this grand plan with India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the EU. Railways, pipelines, power systems spanning from the Indian Ocean through the Persian Gulf to Europe - Biden himself called it "a real big deal". The whole thing was marketed as the new Spice Route that would change everything.

The handshake that meant nothing: Biden, Modi, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2023.

Western pundits immediately framed it as the ultimate counter to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Biden was practically gloating about how this would deliver “game-changing regional investment” for everyone involved.

But here we are two years later, and not only has nothing substantial happened, but the whole thing has been pushed to the side as Middle Eastern tensions and great power competition took over.

When Your Key Partners Walk Away

The UAE was supposed to be a cornerstone of this whole operation. Then Gaza happened, and suddenly UAE-Israel relations went straight into the freezer. UAE officials started openly slamming Israel's West Bank actions as crossing "red lines" and basically declared that extremist forces had trashed the Abraham Accords.

When Israel decided to bomb Hamas leadership in Doha, that really set off the Gulf states. The UAE President and his ministers personally flew to Qatar to show solidarity, publicly opposing Israel. As experts point out, Israel is basically throwing away hard-won cooperation opportunities - relations are now at rock bottom.

Saudi Arabia has done a complete 180 too. They had promised $20 billion for this corridor, but after the whole invasion of Gaza, they made Palestinian statehood a non-negotiable condition for any normalization with Israel. The railway investments? Suspended. After Israel hit Doha, Riyadh went even further, declaring it would stand with Qatar 'without limits' and harness 'all capabilities' for Qatar's response."

So the corridor that was supposed to depend on Middle Eastern cooperation now has its foundation completely shaken by regional conflicts.

India Plays It Safe

Unlike the UAE and Saudi Arabia backing away, India recently signed a bilateral investment deal with Israel. On paper, this looks like they're keeping some hope alive for the corridor. But both countries completely avoided mentioning the corridor in their joint statement. Delhi clearly doesn't want to stick its neck out too far.

Researchers are calling India's approach more like a mere kept-up appearance. Fair enough - unlike the UAE and Saudi Arabia, India doesn't have to deal with the direct political fallout from Middle Eastern conflicts. For Israel, getting any agreement with India counts as some kind of diplomatic win. But this barely dents the overall decline.

America Loses Interest Fast

Here's where it gets really telling - the US, which started this whole thing, has basically lost the will to grind on its own project.

Trump promised India's PM he'd convene a summit within six months after taking office. That deadline came and went and nothing happened. Instead, Washington's focus shifted to slapping high tariffs on India and dealing with Middle Eastern drama. When Trump visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE, he didn't even bother mentioning the corridor plan.

Analysts point out that this project was originally America's key tool for pushing the Abraham Accords and improving Israel-Saudi relations. But now? The US hasn't just failed to resolve contradictions - it's actually made regional uncertainty worse through its policy flip-flopping.

Turkiye Swoops In

While America sits there twiddling its thumbs, Turkiye is actively pushing forward with its own "Iraq-Turkiye-Europe Development Road Project". This corridor aims to connect Turkiye with the Gulf region through Iraq. Especially after the Kurdistan Workers' Party dissolved, Ankara sees a golden opportunity to advance this project.

Turkiye's "Development Road" - while America fumbles, Ankara moves ahead with its own grand plan.

Turkiye's moves aren't just intensifying competition with Israel - they're also annoying India. The route Ankara is promoting could seriously impact India's original strategic vision of connecting to Europe through Iran, Armenia, and Russia.

Europe Can't Make Up Its Mind

The EU's commitment to this project has been half-hearted at best. Initially, Greece, Italy, and France were fighting over who would dominate the maritime hubs, but they ended up just dumping responsibility on some subordinate team within the European Commission.

More problematically, some European diplomats are now demanding that Israel allow Palestinian participation in corridor construction. Obviously, Israel isn't going to accept that condition under current circumstances.

European analysts are even acknowledging that the corridor project is literally 'on ice'. One of them went a step further and called it “collasped”.

Reality: Strategic Failure

The IMEC was supposed to be America's big answer to the Belt and Road Initiative. Two years later? Virtually zero progress. Middle Eastern conflicts drove away key partners, US interest evaporated, Europe can't decide what it wants, and Turkiye is busy promoting its own alternative.

Looking back now, this supposedly "game-changing" corridor didn't just fail to achieve its intended effect - it's actually exposed the limitations of the US and its allies when it comes to regional cooperation. As one analyst put it: as long as the Gaza war continues, this plan can't possibly get off the ground.

Deep Throat

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

Last Friday, Trump flat-out torpedoed a much-anticipated zero-emissions deal for the global shipping industry, smashing it apart at the United Nations' International Maritime Organization (IMO). The Financial Times lays it all bare: to kill the net-zero shipping pact, Trump didn’t just lean on the usual diplomatic muscle—Washington went full gangster. Think raised port fees, outright bans on ships passing through America, and direct threats, and even personal intimidation of diplomats and their families, with entry bans waved in their faces like warning flags.

The Financial Times lays it out: over a dozen diplomats, foreign officials, and industry insiders watched the US throw diplomacy in the mud at last month’s London summit. Washington came armed with bullying tactics, determined to smash the net-zero shipping pact by brute force.

US Bullying Blocks IMO’s Green Shipping Deal—Vote Delayed a Year. IMO website image.

US officials didn’t bother with backroom deals—they stalked the halls, cornering diplomats from Africa, the Pacific, and the Caribbean. The message was simple: cross the United States, and your ships might not reach America. Rock the boat, and your family could be locked out. These weren’t idle whispers. The intimidation played out in broad daylight during coffee breaks.

Social Media Taunts, Policy Upends

Trump didn’t bother hiding his true feelings. On social media, he slammed the agreement as a “global green shipping tax scam.” But this wasn’t just venting. In April, most countries had already green-lit the framework. It was set to become real policy—until Trump’s team blew it up, forcing a one-year “pause.” The global momentum froze on the spot.

One diplomat cut to the heart of it: “It’s like the streets of New York.” His country got the warning firsthand—keep backing the deal, and watch your sailors’ visas disappear. US port fees? Those would rise too. Another attendee was even more blunt: IMO bigwigs were left gobsmacked. “It’s like dealing with the mafia,” they said. “You don’t need details. You just know: cross us, and you’ll pay.”

The US State Department kept mum on the intimidation claims. Instead, American officials handed out praise to Greece and Cyprus. Those two broke rank from the rest of the EU—they cast abstention votes in the big one-year adjournment, even after they already gave the framework the green light back in April.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, ahead of the IMO meeting in London, issued a joint statement with senior Trump officials warning that the administration was "evaluating sanctions on officials sponsoring activist-driven climate policies that would burden American consumers, among other measures under consideration." As Greece and Cyprus sided with the U.S., much of Europe—and the world—reacted with surprise.

Global Rules or American Muscle?

Chatham House’s head of global economy Creon Butler didn’t mince words. The US, he said, has ditched long-standing diplomatic etiquette. Instead, Washington's now muscling countries into backing its stance—especially on climate.

America Threatens: Support This, Your Crews and Ports Pay.

“In the very short term this might work, but in the medium term it increases the chances that non-US countries will conclude they cannot work with the US, making agreements independently among themselves which simply work around the US,” he said. Sooner or later, the rest of the world will ink deals that leave America in the dust.

The pushback reached fever pitch at the IMO. Brazil, among others, called out the methods “that should not ever be used among sovereign nations”. Washington wasn’t just rattling individuals—entire capitals, from Bangladesh to Japan and Indonesia, got notes threatening diplomatic smackdowns.

But let’s step back. The drive for a net-zero shipping pact isn’t about feel-good climate slogans.

As Niu Tanqin from Xinhua puts it: The pact itself is a brass-tacks response to global warming’s mounting cost. Whether you like it or not, global warming is simply an undisputable fact. Everyone is scrambling to stall off the climate catastrophes looming on the horizon.

So, in order to squeeze carbon emission: if your ship emits less than the set limit, you’re rewarded. Above the cut-off, you pay. China, the EU, Japan, India, Brazil—all were in. Even the big shipping companies joined the chorus.

Only a handful of oil states—think Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE—pushed back. Pacific island nations, unconvinced the pact was tough enough, simply abstained.

Trump Says Global Warming’s a Scam—US Walks Out.

Then, everything changed. Once Trump 2.0 manifested, the US flipped from supporter to saboteur. In his mind, climate change is a hoax—or worse, a Chinese plot to corner American interests. Stopping this agreement wasn’t just policy—it was personal. He didn’t mind stooping low—pulling out every trick in the high school bully’s playbook: pressure, threats, and outright intimidation to make sure America got its way.

One official wasn’t shy: “It was completely exceptional. I have never heard of anything like this in the context of an IMO negotiation. These people [being threatened] are just bureaucrats, they are civil servants.”

If international law becomes a mere cheap disguise, you can bet real power will be the one pulling the strings.

Pause Button Pressed—World Left Reeling

Now, the deal waits on ice for another year, while “the world stares, shell-shocked”—witnesses to a new era of American brinkmanship.

Not the first time, either. Just look at tariffs: if Washington’s unhappy, it writes its own tax bill—no debate required. Venezuela and Nigeria have both fielded threats of military action; Canada and Panama know the taste of territorial intimidation. Lawless? That’s par for the course.

  

But payback, as always, has a funny way of coming due. Today, the US bullies island nations and slaps down climate claims. Tomorrow, who’s next? When “might makes right” replaces rules, every nation that depends on order will lose out. True justice may come late—but it never skips its date. Chip away at the pillars of fairness, and sooner or later, you bury the very house you live in.

The real question: how long can America’s strong-arm show go on before the world walks out?