Trump has now found himself in an uncomfortable spot: American farmers are howling over China’s refusal to buy US soybeans, a crisis that is hitting the Republican heartland the hardest.
On October 1, local time, Trump announced he was preparing for a “major topic of discussion” with President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to demand that China restart its soybean purchases.
Trump vows a soybean showdown with Xi at APEC. (AP Photo)
Trump’s Social Media Bluster
True to form, Trump took to his own social media platform, Truth Social, to blame China for the farmers’ woes, claiming Beijing was using “negotiations” as an excuse not to buy. He declared his administration would direct part of US tariff revenues into subsidies for farmers while accusing former president Joe Biden of failing to enforce an earlier multibillion-dollar trade agreement with Beijing that promised more farm exports. Trump ended his rant with the slogan: “MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!!”
The high-stakes APEC meeting will be held in Gyeongju, South Korea, from October 31 to November 1. Back on September 22, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that Heads-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance for the China-US relations. The presidents of China and the US maintain close exchanges and communication” and "The two sides are in communication”. However, “I have no information to share at the moment,” said the MFA spokesperson.
Trump’s fiery post sent ripples through the market. According to Bloomberg, US soybean futures spiked 1.9% before slipping back, their sharpest daily swing since late August.
The report also noted that only a day earlier, Republican senators vented their frustration during a meeting with US Ambassador to China David Perdue, warning that Beijing was unlikely to resume soybean purchases soon and blasting the lack of a long-term US strategy.
The problem for Trump is obvious: farming states, for long a Republican stronghold, are being hammered by the collapse of the export market. With federal subsidies shrinking, America’s rural communities are under immense strain—turning into a political headache for Trump’s party ahead of next year’s midterm elections. GOP lawmakers from the agricultural heartland are now pressing harder than ever for Trump to cut a deal with Beijing.
China Holds the Cards
As the world’s largest soybean buyer, China wields enormous influence. US Department of Agriculture data shows that by mid-September, weeks into the new sales year, China had not booked a single cargo of American soybeans—the first time this has ever happened since records began in 1999. Last year, China bought over $12 billion worth of US soybeans, accounting for more than half of America’s soybean exports.
But Trump’s go-it-alone tariff war has backfired badly on his own farmers. Traders note that suspending tariff hikes won’t help much when China still imposes a 23% duty on American soybeans. By comparison, Argentina and Brazil enjoy tariffs of only 3%. Argentina has even scrapped its grain export taxes temporarily, making its soybeans cheaper still.
China’s tariffs make US soybeans uncompetitive against Brazil and Argentina. (AP Photo)
Farmers Feeling the Pain
The White House has started to realize the political cost. On September 25, Trump promised reporters in the Oval Office that tariff revenues would be redirected to farmers, insisting they are “for a little while going to be hurt, until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” and “Ultimately, the farmers are going to be making a fortune.”
Yet for America’s farmers, the promise of eventual benefits remains abstract, while their mounting losses are very real. Axios reported that farmers now face between $100 and $150 in losses per acre.
To add to Trump’s troubles, Bloomberg pointed out that his “tariff cash for farmers” scheme could collapse in court. His tariffs, imposed under emergency powers, were already ruled unlawful by a lower court. If the Supreme Court upholds that ruling, the federal government may be forced to refund tens of billions of dollars in collected tariffs—a devastating blow to Trump’s trade war narrative.
Deep Throat
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Actions speak louder than words. Conn Selmer — the largest manufacturer of brass and orchestral instruments in the United States, owned by Wall Street billionaire John Paulson — has announced it will move production of tubas, marching tubas, and part of its French horn output from its Eastlake, Ohio plant to China. The factory closes at the end of June, cutting 150 jobs.
Conn Selmer – the largest manufacturer of brass and orchestral instruments in the United States.
The contradiction here is hard to ignore. Paulson is not only a major financial backer of Trump — he is a political ally who has publicly pledged to defend American manufacturing. His actions now run directly counter to his "America First" rhetoric, and the workers bearing the cost are furious.
Paulson is both a major financial backer of President Trump and a political ally who has pledged to defend American manufacturing.
According to a Reuters report on April 17, Paulson raised about US$50.5 million for Trump's 2024 election campaign. In a September interview with CNBC that year, he declared: "We can’t have American producers closing American factories and offshoring. We need to protect American jobs and protect American manufacturing."
Yet this month, Conn Selmer confirmed that its Eastlake brass instrument plant will cease operations entirely, with production shifting to China. As early as February, The Guardian had revealed Paulson's plan to outsource most of the factory's operations, describing the move as "a slap in the face" to workers.
Paulson, now 71, heads the investment firm Paulson & Co. He earned the nickname "the God of Short-Selling" and is widely regarded as one of finance's most influential figures. His ties with Trump stretch back to 2016, when he publicly backed Trump after the Republican nomination and served as a top economic adviser to the campaign. Today, a deep rift has opened between his business decisions and his political stance — made all the more jarring given his past criticism of outsourcing and his vocal support for tariff policy.
Conn Selmer previously informed the union representing 150 workers that the Eastlake plant closure and production shift had been finalized, with the shutdown scheduled for the end of June.
Conn Selmer had already informed the union representing 150 workers that the Eastlake closure was final, with a June-end deadline. A local United Auto Workers chapter said employees only learned of the shutdown last month, during contract negotiations — when the company made clear the decision was non-negotiable and the plant would simply close. The company had quietly established a factory in China last year and had been gradually shifting operations there. The restructuring is expected to cut US$13 million in costs in one stroke to maintain competitiveness. Even a 20.4% tariff on Chinese-made brass instruments did nothing to halt the move.
Keith Czika, an 18-year plant veteran, joined fellow union members in lobbying efforts, hoping Paulson's access to Trump might prompt a reversal. It got them nowhere. "Why would Paulson decide to move the factory to China? I still can't wrap my head around it," Czika said. "China, after all, is an economic rival of the United States."
Annette Dombrowski, a 64-year-old cleaner, broke down in tears multiple times during a briefing on severance arrangements. The irony stings: the briefing was held in the American Legion hall where she had once celebrated her own wedding. She relies on modest Social Security income and admits deep anxiety about what comes next. "I think America is in a terrible state right now," she said. "I'm starting to regret voting for Trump."
The political stakes are rising. John Plecnik, a Republican in Lake County, Ohio, issued a blunt warning: if job protection promises are not delivered before the November midterm elections, the party risks losing its working-class base. "If we don’t keep the promise of protecting jobs, I wouldn’t blame them for going right back and voting Democrat."
Of the six Trump-supporting workers Reuters interviewed, five said they would still back Republican candidates. Czika kept his support for Trump — but added a condition: "If you keep your promises, that'll be fine," he said. "If you don't, that'll be a problem. America First. Bring manufacturing back."
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, since Trump returned to the White House, U.S. manufacturing jobs have fallen by about 100,000.
The numbers tell a damning story. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. manufacturing employment has dropped by about 100,000 jobs since Trump returned to the White House. Conn Selmer's spokesperson said the plant closure "will enhance our competitiveness and better meet current market demand." As of now, the White House has not responded to workers' calls for Trump to intervene.
