Trump has now found himself in an uncomfortable spot: American farmers are howling over China’s refusal to buy US soybeans, a crisis that is hitting the Republican heartland the hardest.
On October 1, local time, Trump announced he was preparing for a “major topic of discussion” with President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to demand that China restart its soybean purchases.
Trump vows a soybean showdown with Xi at APEC. (AP Photo)
Trump’s Social Media Bluster
True to form, Trump took to his own social media platform, Truth Social, to blame China for the farmers’ woes, claiming Beijing was using “negotiations” as an excuse not to buy. He declared his administration would direct part of US tariff revenues into subsidies for farmers while accusing former president Joe Biden of failing to enforce an earlier multibillion-dollar trade agreement with Beijing that promised more farm exports. Trump ended his rant with the slogan: “MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!!”
The high-stakes APEC meeting will be held in Gyeongju, South Korea, from October 31 to November 1. Back on September 22, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that Heads-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic guidance for the China-US relations. The presidents of China and the US maintain close exchanges and communication” and "The two sides are in communication”. However, “I have no information to share at the moment,” said the MFA spokesperson.
Trump’s fiery post sent ripples through the market. According to Bloomberg, US soybean futures spiked 1.9% before slipping back, their sharpest daily swing since late August.
The report also noted that only a day earlier, Republican senators vented their frustration during a meeting with US Ambassador to China David Perdue, warning that Beijing was unlikely to resume soybean purchases soon and blasting the lack of a long-term US strategy.
The problem for Trump is obvious: farming states, for long a Republican stronghold, are being hammered by the collapse of the export market. With federal subsidies shrinking, America’s rural communities are under immense strain—turning into a political headache for Trump’s party ahead of next year’s midterm elections. GOP lawmakers from the agricultural heartland are now pressing harder than ever for Trump to cut a deal with Beijing.
China Holds the Cards
As the world’s largest soybean buyer, China wields enormous influence. US Department of Agriculture data shows that by mid-September, weeks into the new sales year, China had not booked a single cargo of American soybeans—the first time this has ever happened since records began in 1999. Last year, China bought over $12 billion worth of US soybeans, accounting for more than half of America’s soybean exports.
But Trump’s go-it-alone tariff war has backfired badly on his own farmers. Traders note that suspending tariff hikes won’t help much when China still imposes a 23% duty on American soybeans. By comparison, Argentina and Brazil enjoy tariffs of only 3%. Argentina has even scrapped its grain export taxes temporarily, making its soybeans cheaper still.
China’s tariffs make US soybeans uncompetitive against Brazil and Argentina. (AP Photo)
Farmers Feeling the Pain
The White House has started to realize the political cost. On September 25, Trump promised reporters in the Oval Office that tariff revenues would be redirected to farmers, insisting they are “for a little while going to be hurt, until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit,” and “Ultimately, the farmers are going to be making a fortune.”
Yet for America’s farmers, the promise of eventual benefits remains abstract, while their mounting losses are very real. Axios reported that farmers now face between $100 and $150 in losses per acre.
To add to Trump’s troubles, Bloomberg pointed out that his “tariff cash for farmers” scheme could collapse in court. His tariffs, imposed under emergency powers, were already ruled unlawful by a lower court. If the Supreme Court upholds that ruling, the federal government may be forced to refund tens of billions of dollars in collected tariffs—a devastating blow to Trump’s trade war narrative.
Deep Throat
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Trump just rolled out another tariff threat, and this time Iran's trading partners are in his crosshairs. On January 12, the US president announced a blanket 25% tariff on any country "doing business" with Tehran.
The international press immediately fixated on China—Iran's biggest trade partner. Reuters warned this could reignite the US–China trade war and shred the fragile truce both sides hammered out last year. But Chinese scholars aren't buying it. They say Trump lacks the nerve to slap Beijing with new tariffs, because China will hit back hard—and make him regret it.
Anti-government protests erupt in Iran. (AP photo)
The Financial Times reported on January 12 that these tariffs—which took effect immediately—could slam China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, the UAE, Brazil, and Iraq. All of them trade heavily with Iran. Russia sealed a new free trade deal with Iran in 2025, making it another potential target.
CNN pointed out the stakes for Beijing. China trades with both Iran and the US, so if Washington applies these tariffs, Chinese goods entering America could see costs spike. The network recalled that after last year's summit in Busan, South Korea, the Chinese and US presidents agreed to pause portions of their tariff war—a temporary truce.
Iran as Flashpoint, Again
Reuters published a piece on January 13 titled "Trump's Iran Tariff Threat Risks Reopening China Rift." The article traced how Iran became a powder keg in US–China relations during Trump's first term (2017–2021).
Back then, Washington tightened sanctions on Tehran and blacklisted Huawei, accusing the Chinese telecom giant of selling tech to Iran. That led to the arrest of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei's daughter, Meng Wanzhou, in Canada—triggering a diplomatic crisis and sending bilateral tensions through the roof.
Now Trump's targeting Iran again. If he follows through, total US tariffs on Chinese exports could exceed 70%—way higher than the rates both sides agreed to last October when they dialed down their trade fight.
It's still unclear which countries or entities Trump will actually target. He hasn't named China explicitly. But Reuters noted Trump has a track record of making bombastic statements that could upend US foreign policy—only to back off later.
US–China "truce" forged in Busan last year now at risk if Trump's Iran tariffs target Beijing. (AP file photo)
Beijing Calls Trump's Bluff
Wu Xinbo, Dean of Fudan University's School of International Relations, told Reuters that China sees through Trump's posturing. "China will call (Trump's) bluff. I can assure you that Trump has no guts to impose the extra 25% tariffs on China, and if he does, China will retaliate and he will be punished," said Wu.
Another Chinese scholar pushed back on the narrative that China and Iran are economically intertwined, noting that "China and Iran are not as close as in the public imagination".
China Customs data backs that up. Beijing has dramatically reduced imports from Iran in recent years. Through November last year, China imported just 2.9 billion USD worth of Iranian goods—a far cry from the 21 billion USD peak in 2018, during Trump's first presidency.
Some sources claim China's major oil companies stopped doing business with Iran in 2022. Yet China's purchases from Tehran still run into the billions, thanks to independent refiners handling shipments.
China as Convenient Scapegoat
Wang Jin, a researcher at Beijing's Dialogue Think Tank, told reporters that "China is just an excuse, a kind of disguise for the Trump administration, to impose new pressure (on) Iran."
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning responded to Trump's tariff threat on January 13. She stated that China's position on tariffs is crystal clear: tariff wars produce no winners. Beijing will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests.
Analysts warn that Trump's renewed attempt to cut Iran off from global trade could heighten worries about the Belt and Road Initiative. Iran serves as a strategic hub for Chinese goods heading to the Middle East.
This tariff gambit has cast doubt on Trump's planned April visit to China. Observers had expected him to seal a comprehensive trade deal with Beijing during that trip.
The Wall Street Journal echoed Reuters' concerns, warning that new tariffs on Iran's trading partners could wreck the US–China trade truce.
But Reuters also cited Xu Tianchen, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who questioned whether Trump's tariff policy is even enforceable. "Last year he announced tariffs related to 'illicit' Russian oil trade, but their implementation was patchy." Xu said.
He went on stating that "Trump is also the kind of person who likes bullying the weak," Xu said. "He should manage his actions to avoid these tariffs escalating into direct confrontation with China".
