Trump’s attacks on Iran have looked like shadowboxing in the dark. The direction changes daily, and the strategy is so unpredictable that it can seem chaotic. Perhaps that is the essence of “Trumpian strategy”: if he does not know what he is doing, how could his enemy know?
After 13 straight days of US strikes on Iran, Trump had signaled a much larger air campaign. Then he abruptly hit the brakes and told the military to hold fire. What forced such a sudden reversal?
A New York Times report offers an explanation. At a recent White House war room meeting, officials warned that stocks of Patriot and other air-defense interceptors were running dangerously low. If Iran kept retaliating, US forces in the region could struggle to protect themselves. The risk pushed Trump from escalating to retreating.
Low interceptor stocks forced Trump to halt strikes, fearing US casualties and political disaster.
The Wall Street Journal separately reported that Iran has used a cheap, accurate, and fast medium-range missile in large numbers against US bases. The weapon can break through American defenses. If both sides keep trading strikes, US casualties could climb, placing even greater political pressure on Trump.
From Green Light to Hold
US forces had been pounding Iran for days. Each afternoon, Trump personally approved the military’s proposed attack plan, which was then executed within hours. But last Friday, after receiving the latest plan, he withheld the green light and ordered the military to hold off.
It turned out that same day, Trump convened selected cabinet members and advisers for a White House war room meeting. Officials warned that stocks of Patriot and other interceptor missiles were dwindling rapidly and had fallen to dangerous levels.
The meeting also revisited the earlier attack on a US base in Jordan, where three soldiers died. An Iranian missile penetrated US air defenses and struck its target directly. The incident underscored the increasingly serious shortage of interceptor missiles.
For Trump, another successful strike on a US base and more American deaths would carry a steep political price. He could not ignore that prospect.
Tit for Tat
After Trump resumed the airstrikes, Iran hit back hard, firing missiles at US bases across the region and deploying drones. The two sides traded blows like boxers in the ring, neither willing to yield. A US air base in Jordan, Sarti, was hit, killing three soldiers and quickly fueling a domestic backlash in the United States.
Trump’s advisers warned that further US airstrikes would invite more Iranian missile retaliation. US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates could all become targets. Regional air-defense systems were already under growing strain, while the likelihood of American casualties kept rising.
The timing could hardly be worse. Just when the United States needs more interceptors, its supplies are dwindling. The New York Times said the Pentagon has used 1,200 Patriot missiles since the offensive began, at about US$4 million apiece, bringing inventories to an alarming level.
The latest round of US-Iran fighting has consumed another batch and moved supplies closer to the danger line. Keep fighting at this pace and US forces could be left effectively exposed. More military deaths could follow, with potentially grim consequences for the midterm elections.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has also privately expressed concern about interceptor stocks running dry. He worries that a large-scale offensive could leave the Middle East short of deployable interceptors.
Gamblers have an old rule: when you’re winning, let it ride; when you’re losing, cut your losses. Trump, a gambler by nature, has gone from letting it ride to cutting his losses. The shift suggests his hand is weakening, with the shortage of interceptor missiles among his worst cards.
Iran’s Strong Card
By contrast, Iran still has some strong cards to play. Its missile reserves can sustain continuing launches, and it has rebuilt assembly plants to replenish its arsenal. What worries Washington most is Iran's extensive use of a cheap, accurate, and rapid medium-range missile that can penetrate defense systems.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has relied on the Kheibar Shekan missile as its main medium-range ballistic weapon against US regional targets. Those targets include the recently attacked US base in Jordan.
The missile has a range of 900 miles. It climbs into the atmosphere before diving on its target at speeds of up to 6,000 mph, and it can alter its trajectory in flight. That makes interception more difficult.
Cheap, fast, and mobile, Iran’s Kheibar Shekan missiles easily penetrate defenses to strike US bases.
The Kheibar Shekan has several advantages. Its production cost is lower than that of US interceptor missiles, it can be fueled in advance and quickly loaded onto mobile launchers, and its mobility helps it evade US and Israeli attacks.
The missile can also adjust its speed to confuse US defenses. In this conflict, some Kheibar Shekan missiles have used these features to break through US defenses and strike their targets successfully.
US and Israeli estimates indicate that Iran had about 2,500 of these missiles before the war. Israel says it has intercepted most of them. Yet the Wall Street Journal said Iran continues firing them at Israel, including at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli Air Force command.
If Israeli air defenses leave even a small opening, a Kheibar Shekan strike could hand Iran a major symbolic victory.
Trump’s strategic shift suggests that the military balance is gradually reversing. If the fighting continues, the United States may find itself less able to endure, and a rough military parity could open the way to peace.
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