"War demon" Returns: Netanyahu Brings "Top-Secret Intel" to Sway Trump on Iran

A demon has returned, and the world knows no peace. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who ignited the war against Iran visited the US again on 27 July, to attend the funeral of "Jewish faction" politician Graham, and he will meet Trump at the White House the following day.

"War demon" Netanyahu met Trump on 28 July, pushing to escalate strikes on Iran.

Netanyahu has not even arrived, yet the killing intent is already on display. American media report that he plans to hand Trump a "latest top-secret report" on Iran's nuclear weapons development. The report includes details on how Tehran is accelerating its nuclear program, and Netanyahu will use it to try to persuade Trump to escalate the campaign against Iran.

Before he set off, the newly appointed head of Israel's intelligence agency Mossad, Gofman, had already secretly visited Washington. Gofman briefed American officials on the locations where Iran is storing enriched uranium and developing nuclear weapons, and he urged the US military to launch a massive bombing campaign. The Middle East will be plunged into bloodshed and chaos will engulf the world, should Trump be talked into it by this "demon" once again.

Hawkish Fangs Before Departure

Strikes against Iran have paused these past two days. War clouds have eased somewhat. But Netanyahu's US visit brings the shadow of war right back. Before he departed for Washington, he already showed his hawkish fangs.

He declared that the war will only end once Iran's regime collapses or is forced to abandon its nuclear program. In other words, he wants the US to fight this war to the finish. He will not rest until both goals are achieved.

This time, he is using the funeral as cover to visit the White House again and see Trump. His goal is to convince Trump that "there must be no ceasefire under any circumstances." Given how much is at stake, he came prepared, not with empty words.

According to sources on the Israeli side cited by American media, he intends to hand Trump the "latest top-secret intelligence" on Iran's military and nuclear program. This includes how Iran is speeding up nuclear weapons development, a threat he will argue endangers both the Middle East and the United States.

Armed with these "shocking facts," he intends to talk Trump into escalating military action. He will warn Trump not to be deceived by Iran again, and not to fall for the idea that the issue can be resolved at the negotiating table.

Leaks on Kuh-e Sang

He has also leaked word through pro-Israel American media that Iran has restarted nuclear weapons development in the Kuh-e Sang region within its territory. Centrifuges used for uranium enrichment have already been relocated there, he claims.

He further asserts that Supreme Leader Mojtaba has an even stronger desire to develop nuclear weapons than his father did. The purpose of bringing this "latest intelligence" is to use fear to drive Trump not to stop, but to keep fighting, and fight even harder.

Netanyahu's "push for war" visit is extremely important for Israel. That is why he had already sent Israel's spy chief ahead as an "advance party" weeks earlier, to pitch this "nuclear crisis theory" to senior officials in Washington.

Citing officials familiar with the matter, American media report that the newly appointed head of Mossad, Gofman, secretly traveled to Washington in mid-July. He briefed a group of officials, including CIA Director Ratcliffe, on intelligence about nuclear development taking place deep underground in the Kuh-e Sang mountain. He also disclosed the latest quantities of uranium material and Iran's recent political and economic situation.

Mossad's new chief Gofman secretly urged Washington to expand bombing of Iran.

The Underground Target

Kuh-e Sang is located in central Iran, near the Natanz nuclear facility. Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran relocated thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges there late last year. The site was installed deep underground where a hardened outer shell protects it.

This means the US and Israel would need to deploy multiple heavy bombers to have any chance of destroying it. Gofman's secret meetings with Washington officials this time were specifically aimed at pushing this massive airstrike plan.

Gofman came close to succeeding. Trump had reportedly been preparing to deploy heavy bombers for the first time to strike Iran's nuclear facilities at Kuh-e Sang, and Israel had already gone on alert.

However, a White House war-situation meeting last Friday led Trump to pause the operation. The reason was that US missile-interceptor stockpiles had dropped sharply. If Iran were to widen its retaliatory strikes, US military bases and Gulf allies would face enormous risk, so Trump was forced to hold back.

Netanyahu, of course, will not give up so easily. On this visit, he will keep pulling out every trick to convince Trump to launch a full-scale offensive. He is confident because his last trip to the White House successfully persuaded the US to strike Iran.

On February 11 this year, Netanyahu arrived in the US with an "Iran attack master plan." He pitched hard to Trump and senior officials that if the US and Israel joined forces in a lightning strike to "decapitate" Iran's supreme leader, the regime would inevitably collapse and be replaced by a pro-American government, thereby completing the mission against Iran.

Trump was captivated by the idea. He believed he could win a historic victory in one stroke, and he decided to go to war. But the course of the war did not unfold as planned. Netanyahu's "master plan" came to nothing, leaving Trump trapped in a dilemma where fighting on meant disaster and stopping also meant disaster, a bind he could not escape.

A World on Edge Again

Netanyahu will not let any opportunity slip by. This visit to the US is another repeat performance, secretly scheming to push the war toward escalation. Whether Trump, having been fooled once, has grown wiser and won't be easily talked into it again remains to be seen.

Otherwise, the Middle East will descend into chaos once more, and the whole world will suffer at the hands of this "demon."

What Say You?

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

A New York Times writer asked a good question yesterday: "Why the United States Can’t Quit Its Wars?" Quite rightly so. From Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran, the United States can never escape the fate of "easy to start a war, hard to pull the troops out."

The harder it strikes, the stronger its enemies grow. The more allies those enemies attract, the deeper Washington sinks. It has no choice but to keep raising the stakes. The Iran war is now trapped in exactly this vicious cycle.

The Wall Street Journal reports today that Iran's "Axis of Resistance" has expanded further of late. The al-Qaeda branch entrenched in Somalia, Africa, has stepped up its alliance with the Houthis, Iran's "sworn brothers." The pair could choke off the Red Sea exit at any moment. That would sever the other oil shipping lane beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Should that happen, America's troubles will multiply, and pulling out will become harder still.

Al-Qaeda's Somali branch joins the Houthis. Washington's headache grows.

According to the report, al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda's branch in Somalia, is the wealthiest of them all. It controls local ports, roads and gold mines, and it is raking in money hand over fist. Annual revenue exceeds US$100 million.

Yet bulging coffers are not enough. The group lacks advanced weapons, and its fighters need proper military training. Which is why it has cut frequent "deals" in recent years with the Houthis in Yemen, Iran's "sworn brother." Since the US attacked Iran, the two have grown closer still, united by common enemies in America and Israel.

Al-Qaeda was founded by bin Laden in 1988. It began as a "jihadist organization" resisting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, covertly funded, no less, by the CIA. When the Soviets went down in defeat, the United States took over the role of "invader." Al-Qaeda promptly turned its guns on America.

In 2001 Al-Qaeda orchestrated 9/11, the terrorist attack of the century. Washington has regarded it as the greatest threat ever since.

In recent years, its leaders have been killed by the US one after another. Rival "jihadist groups" keep grabbing its turf, leaving it in steady decline. Yet al-Qaeda remains powerful in parts of the Middle East and Africa. The Somali branch is a case in point. The US has long seen it as a mortal danger, and the American military has struck it as many as 40 times.

The "Perfect Partners"

To build up its military muscle, the group has in recent years bought large batches of advanced weapons from the Houthis through intermediary arms dealers. It has also sent fighters to Yemen for military training, learning, among other things, how to operate attack drones. The Houthis, for their part, have dispatched instructors to Somalia to pass on combat skills.

The US went to war against Iran in late February this year. That pushed the "deadly duo" into even closer contact. Al-Qaeda belongs to Islam's Sunni branch, while the Houthis are Shia. The two are age-old foes. But faced with the common enemies of America and Israel, both are willing to set aside their feud and point their guns outward in unison.

What is more, each side of the "deadly duo" has something the other craves. The Houthis need hard cash to fund their war effort. Al-Qaeda, keen to sharpen its fighting power to consolidate its grip, must acquire advanced weapons and military technology. This mutually beneficial relationship has turned the two into "perfect partners."

To Washington, two "terrorist organizations" banding together is a real nightmare. It is enough to rob it of sleep and appetite. The Houthis are entrenched in Yemen, facing Somalia, home of the al-Qaeda branch, across the Gulf of Aden. That is the gateway through which oil is shipped via the Red Sea. If the pair join forces, they could lock down this shipping lane for good.

The Choke Point

The Strait of Hormuz is already firmly in Iran's grip. If this other lane is cut as well, Saudi Arabia and the rest will lose their alternative route for shipping oil. Global energy supplies will go from bad to worse. Remember: 12 percent of the Middle East's oil is transported through this passage. The impact must not be underestimated.

The "deadly duo" could shut Saudi Arabia's backup oil route.

Worryingly, the "deadly duo" genuinely possesses the capability to seal the strait. The Houthis have precision missiles and large fleets of attack drones. They are now helping al-Qaeda install radar in Somalia and supplying it with attack drones and more. The two could coordinate operations down the road, striking merchant vessels and US warships that try to force their way through.

Whether the American military could juggle that many fronts at once would then be a big question mark.

America's current predicament recalls 2010. President Obama decided then to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan to fight the Taliban. The deputy assistant secretary of defense at the time, Lavoy, raised doubts. "Afghanistan has countless tribes, and every one of them harbors resentment towards America," he said. "Even if the Taliban did not exist, there would still be an insurgency in Afghanistan."

No matter how many troops were poured in, the war could not be won. Better to simply withdraw.

Those words describe the Iran war today just as aptly. By attacking Iran, America has opened a "Pandora's box," and "demons" like al-Qaeda have come pouring out. How many of them, one has to ask, can America possibly fight at once?

Lai Ting-yiu