Just six years after the "black riots" tore through Hong Kong, the city has found its footing again—thanks largely to police who've learned to stay one step ahead of trouble. But as Chief Executive John Lee rightly points out, we must not let down our guard for national security. The anti-Hong Kong brigade isn't going anywhere, and they're nothing if not persistent.
"Hong Kong Watch"—that familiar gang of anti-Hong Kong agitators—just dropped a report specifically designed to tank Hong Kong's stock market. Talk about showing your hand.
Here's what's fascinating: with Hong Kong's IPO market absolutely booming and capital flooding in, these political opportunists have pivoted their strategy. They've now got their sights set squarely on the stock market.
Market Reality vs. Political Theater
Hong Kong's stock market has been absolutely stellar. HK$108.7 billion raised in IPOs during the first half of the year, capturing 24% of global IPO activity and ranking first worldwide. That's got to sting for the crowd who've been predicting Hong Kong's demise.
Financial sector insiders aren't losing sleep over these political theatrics, and frankly, they shouldn't. Money follows opportunity, and as long as Hong Kong's markets are performing, Wall Street will keep showing up. The "poisonous plot" brigade can scheme all they want—profit-seeking capital doesn't care about their political narratives.
The "Risky Business" Report: A Calculated Attack
Enter their latest weapon: a report cheekily titled "Risky Business: How Sanctioned Entities Access Capital via Hong Kong." The premise: that Chinese companies are supposedly using Hong Kong's markets to dodge sanctions, and American investors need protecting from having their money "siphoned off."
The real objective here is clear: crashing Hong Kong's stock market. It's a pretty brazen move, even by their standards. Of course, Wall Street doesn't particularly care about political posturing when there's money to be made. If Hong Kong stocks are turning a profit, that capital will keep flowing eastward regardless. Still, these kinds of coordinated political attacks are worth watching.
The anti-Hong Kong outfit "Hong Kong Watch" has been making the rounds—from Washington's Hudson Institute to planned events in London—trying to drum up support for investment restrictions. They've even wheeled out Joey Siu, the fugitive wanted under the National Security Law, to scaremonger about the risks of doing business in Hong Kong. It's the same tired playbook: create fear, lobby for restrictions, hope the market tanks.
The Jimmy Lai Gambit: Canada Says No
Meanwhile, they've been pulling out all the stops trying to save Jimmy Lai. The latest scheme involved Canadian MPs proposing to grant him "honorary Canadian citizenship"—putting him in the same category as Nelson Mandela and the Dalai Lama, which is quite something.
Under Trudeau, this sort of grandstanding might have sailed through. But times have changed. With Mark Carney now leading the Liberal Party—the same guy who stood firm against Trump's trade war tactics—Canada's priorities have shifted. The government needs China as an economic lifeline, not another diplomatic headache.
They tried teaming up with Canadian MPs to fast-track Jimmy Lai's "honorary citizenship," but the Liberal Party's House Leader wasn't having it. Another swing and a miss for the "Saving Lai" campaign.
Sure enough, Liberal House Leader Steven MacKinnon stepped in last Friday and shelved the motion. His diplomatic language about "consensus" and "proper foreign policy" was code for: we're not torpedoing our relationship with Beijing over this.
Conclusion: Bad Timing, Worse Strategy
As Jimmy Lai's case heads toward its conclusion, expect his supporters to ramp up their efforts even further. But here's their problem: the timing couldn't be worse. When the Canadian government focuses on economic recovery, these anti-Hong Kong campaigners are bound to keep hitting brick walls.
Their latest efforts are just more evidence that their influence is waning, and Hong Kong's resilience is only getting stronger.
Lai Ting-yiu
What Say You?
** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
As the Year of the Horse approaching, Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are bracing for a gut punch. The festive season brings no joy—only anxiety. Mid-February marks the deadline for the UK government's consultation on raising permanent residency thresholds, and the verdict on whether BNO holders get a pass is about to drop.
The Home Office floated immigration reforms that would keep the "5+1" rule intact—five years of residence before you can apply—but the bar just shot up, with higher English proficiency requirements and stable income. For many, these hurdles are insurmountable.
Mahmood's stonewalling to BNO holders' demands signals bad news. The February verdict looms.
Hong Kong BNO holders fired off "five demands" to the authorities, pleading for relief. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's response was ice cold. Zero acknowledgment of their demands. Her dismissive tone signals one thing: exemptions for BNO holders look dead in the water.
If the final call goes all the way, thousands who waited five years will crash at the finish line. A return wave to Hong Kong is inevitable. The Hong Kong government needs to get ready.
The Dual Knockout Blow
The UK government didn't just raise the bar—it installed a double gate that slams shut on 60,000 people. First gate: English proficiency must hit B2 level, equivalent to A-Level, practically university standard. Second gate: annual income over the past three to five years must reach at least £12,570, with tax records to prove it.
Surveys by Hong Kong migrant organizations paint a grim picture: if these "dual requirements" become reality, 30% of BNO holders—roughly 60,000 people—will fail to qualify and get filtered out. No wonder panic is spreading.
While anxiety mounts, the UK government plays coy. Ambiguous statements. Equivocal attitudes. Nobody can read their hand. Now, with just one month until the announcement, BNO holders are reaching peak agitation. A group of Hong Kong voters in Mahmood's constituency drafted a joint letter, restating the "five demands" and requesting a face-to-face meeting to apply pressure.
Mahmood responded quickly—but only to say Hong Kong BNO holders could apply for permanent residency after five years. As for the "five demands"? Crickets. Instead, she reiterated that those granted permanent residency must meet three criteria: being "well-integrated," "economically self-sufficient," and "committed” to the communities they join.
Mahmood Goes Silent
One Hong Kong BNO holder who signed the petition decoded those three phrases: "integration" and "commitment" are code words for English proficiency and income levels. Translation: BNO holders applying for permanent residency must also clear these two hurdles.
These Hong Kong residents sent a follow-up letter to Mahmood, requesting a meeting to present their case in person. Her response? Radio silence. Phone calls to her constituency office go unanswered. She's clearly ducking any face-to-face encounter.
Mahmood is stonewalling, and nobody can do a thing about it. Frustrated BNO holders vent to yellow media outlets, angrily branding her "heartless." But here's the reality check: the Labour government's approval ratings are tanking. Reform UK is breathing down their necks on immigration. Immigration policy will err on the side of restriction, not relaxation. Naturally, they're inclined to treat BNO holders the same as everyone else. No special treatment. No "sentiment." The "five demands" might as well be whispers in the wind.
Two Paths Forward
Friends living in the UK lay out the scenario: if the UK government announces "no relaxation" next month, BNO holders who can't meet the requirements face two choices.
First option: return to Hong Kong and start over. After all, life in the UK hasn't been entirely rosy—living day after day in anxiety. "Returning home" might actually be a relief.
Second option: continue to "temporarily reside" in the UK on a BNO visa, becoming long-term temporary residents. But they'll remain in an unstable state, which won't be comfortable.
There's also a thornier complication: some BNO families migrated to the UK with their parents, and one spouse hasn't worked or earned any income for several years. If these family members don't meet the criteria for applying for permanent residency, it could trigger family separation or force the entire family to return to Hong Kong. They'll face an agonizing decision. Quite a mess.
No exemptions? Brace for the return wave.
My friend predicts that if the worst-case scenario materializes, a return wave is sure to come. For Hong Kong, there will be upsides and downsides. Either way, the government needs to get ready and figure out how to handle it.
