So here we are: Taiwan’s pro-independence camp just tried to boot out 24 Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers with a dramatic “mass recall,” only to fall flat on their faces—24 to 0. There’s a twist, though. Among the overseas Hong Kong activists, not one dared to back this messy maneuver… except for Nathan Law. True to form, he jumped on Facebook the night before, cheering for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and dishing out old-school “Hongkongers lost their freedom” rhetoric. He seemed convinced Taiwanese people would fall right in line with President William Lai’s anti-China rallying cry and rush to the polls. In reality? Law was completely out of touch, stuck in a “2019” headspace, and his support went nowhere.
On the eve of the “mass recall” vote, Nathan Law made a Facebook post rallying for the DPP. Yet he was completely out of sync with mainstream opinion in Taiwan and ended up betting on the wrong side—exposing himself in the process.
Law’s history with Taiwan’s pro-independence crowd is well-known, stretching back to 2017—so this latest show of support isn’t exactly a curveball.
Stuck in the Past, Missing the Mood
Nathan Law’s still clinging to the idea that Hong Kong’s protests were a masterclass in political inspiration, thinking Taiwanese voters would react the same way: resist China, recall the KMT. He even said, “I’m not Taiwanese, but I know Taiwan stands at the front line against the Chinese Communist Party,” pinning all of Hong Kong’s pains on Beijing, hoping to “transfer” that anger to Taiwan. Is anyone still buying this? Apparently not.
He parroted William Lai’s narrative, too—framing Taiwan’s future as a battle hinging on how tough its people are against the “CCP’s aggression.” In his eyes, getting rid of KMT lawmakers is key to beefing up resistance and “civilian preparedness.” But the recall's flop made it clear: Law was talking to a very empty room.
Revolution Rhetoric vs. Reality
Political insiders say Law can’t let go of the “revolution of our times” psyche, expecting Taiwanese to take big risks just like he did. But he’s missing the plot: The recall failed because ordinary folks were fed up with the DPP’s extreme tactics and relentless anti-China messaging. People saw the risks and instability—not as acts of courage, but as dangerous games with Taiwan’s future. Lai’s “death match” strategy clearly wasn’t the vibe the public wanted.
So Law’s calls to action? Just echoes in a vacuum.
Deep Pro-Independence Ties, Same Old Mistakes
No surprise Law stands shoulder-to-shoulder with Taiwan’s dyed-in-the-wool independence types. After co-founding Demosistō in 2016, he and Joshua Wong flew to Taiwan for a forum hosted by the pro-independence New Power Party—rubbing shoulders, sharing tactics, cementing ties. Once in exile, Law's connections with the independence camp only deepened—last August he visited Taiwan to promote his book, again warning, “What happened to Hong Kong under the CCP could happen here.”
There during the recent recall was business mogul Robert Tsao, the main orchestrator. Even after the humiliating loss, Tsao blamed everything on “deep CCP infiltration and division,” conveniently glossing over how the DPP had drifted away from what regular people actually wanted.
At the end of the day, Lai’s gamble backfired, and the “Hong Kong card” just doesn't work its old magic in Taiwan. Nathan Law’s grandstanding now looks more like a desperate play to stay relevant with the pro-independence crowd—and it might just leave him with even fewer allies.
Lai Ting-yiu
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** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **
As the Year of the Horse approaching, Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are bracing for a gut punch. The festive season brings no joy—only anxiety. Mid-February marks the deadline for the UK government's consultation on raising permanent residency thresholds, and the verdict on whether BNO holders get a pass is about to drop.
The Home Office floated immigration reforms that would keep the "5+1" rule intact—five years of residence before you can apply—but the bar just shot up, with higher English proficiency requirements and stable income. For many, these hurdles are insurmountable.
Mahmood's stonewalling to BNO holders' demands signals bad news. The February verdict looms.
Hong Kong BNO holders fired off "five demands" to the authorities, pleading for relief. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's response was ice cold. Zero acknowledgment of their demands. Her dismissive tone signals one thing: exemptions for BNO holders look dead in the water.
If the final call goes all the way, thousands who waited five years will crash at the finish line. A return wave to Hong Kong is inevitable. The Hong Kong government needs to get ready.
The Dual Knockout Blow
The UK government didn't just raise the bar—it installed a double gate that slams shut on 60,000 people. First gate: English proficiency must hit B2 level, equivalent to A-Level, practically university standard. Second gate: annual income over the past three to five years must reach at least £12,570, with tax records to prove it.
Surveys by Hong Kong migrant organizations paint a grim picture: if these "dual requirements" become reality, 30% of BNO holders—roughly 60,000 people—will fail to qualify and get filtered out. No wonder panic is spreading.
While anxiety mounts, the UK government plays coy. Ambiguous statements. Equivocal attitudes. Nobody can read their hand. Now, with just one month until the announcement, BNO holders are reaching peak agitation. A group of Hong Kong voters in Mahmood's constituency drafted a joint letter, restating the "five demands" and requesting a face-to-face meeting to apply pressure.
Mahmood responded quickly—but only to say Hong Kong BNO holders could apply for permanent residency after five years. As for the "five demands"? Crickets. Instead, she reiterated that those granted permanent residency must meet three criteria: being "well-integrated," "economically self-sufficient," and "committed” to the communities they join.
Mahmood Goes Silent
One Hong Kong BNO holder who signed the petition decoded those three phrases: "integration" and "commitment" are code words for English proficiency and income levels. Translation: BNO holders applying for permanent residency must also clear these two hurdles.
These Hong Kong residents sent a follow-up letter to Mahmood, requesting a meeting to present their case in person. Her response? Radio silence. Phone calls to her constituency office go unanswered. She's clearly ducking any face-to-face encounter.
Mahmood is stonewalling, and nobody can do a thing about it. Frustrated BNO holders vent to yellow media outlets, angrily branding her "heartless." But here's the reality check: the Labour government's approval ratings are tanking. Reform UK is breathing down their necks on immigration. Immigration policy will err on the side of restriction, not relaxation. Naturally, they're inclined to treat BNO holders the same as everyone else. No special treatment. No "sentiment." The "five demands" might as well be whispers in the wind.
Two Paths Forward
Friends living in the UK lay out the scenario: if the UK government announces "no relaxation" next month, BNO holders who can't meet the requirements face two choices.
First option: return to Hong Kong and start over. After all, life in the UK hasn't been entirely rosy—living day after day in anxiety. "Returning home" might actually be a relief.
Second option: continue to "temporarily reside" in the UK on a BNO visa, becoming long-term temporary residents. But they'll remain in an unstable state, which won't be comfortable.
There's also a thornier complication: some BNO families migrated to the UK with their parents, and one spouse hasn't worked or earned any income for several years. If these family members don't meet the criteria for applying for permanent residency, it could trigger family separation or force the entire family to return to Hong Kong. They'll face an agonizing decision. Quite a mess.
No exemptions? Brace for the return wave.
My friend predicts that if the worst-case scenario materializes, a return wave is sure to come. For Hong Kong, there will be upsides and downsides. Either way, the government needs to get ready and figure out how to handle it.
