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Jimmy Lai’s Reckless Gamble Under the NSL: Panic, Protest, and the Great Escape

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Jimmy Lai’s Reckless Gamble Under the NSL: Panic, Protest, and the Great Escape
Blog

Blog

Jimmy Lai’s Reckless Gamble Under the NSL: Panic, Protest, and the Great Escape

2025-08-19 09:26 Last Updated At:09:26

Jimmy Lai’s closing arguments kicked off Monday with the prosecution spotlighting a stark fact: even after the Hong Kong National Security Law (NSL) came into force, Lai stubbornly kept colluding with foreign forces to push sanctions against Hong Kong—this is the linchpin in proving his guilt.

A close insider told me that once Lai crossed the line, he tossed caution to the wind and charged forward full throttle, despite his top executives’ deep anxiety. They begged him to rein it in, but Lai was hellbent on driving the “war chariot” nonstop. Stuck in the driver’s seat with no escape, Lai’s team scrambled to reduce internal risks by setting up an “NSL Contingency Committee.” Each step was nerve-wracking, but in the end, they all paid the price, dragged down together by their boss.

Panic and the Great Escape

Among Lai’s inner circle, the fastest to jump ship was his so-called protégé, Simon Siu-fat Lee. Just four hours after the NSL took effect, Lee bailed and later fled to the US, successfully dodging prosecution.

After the NSL took effect, Jimmy Lai kept livestreaming and pushing the “One Person, One Letter” campaign urging Trump’s intervention, despite his team’s alarmed opposition.

After the NSL took effect, Jimmy Lai kept livestreaming and pushing the “One Person, One Letter” campaign urging Trump’s intervention, despite his team’s alarmed opposition.

Court testimony reveals that a month before the NSL’s arrival, Lai already knew how severe the law was but still pressed on, provoking the US to pressure Hong Kong’s government. One of his moves included launching Apple Daily’s “One Person, One Letter to Save Hong Kong” campaign, rallying citizens to write to Donald Trump for intervention, betting that only international pressure could make Beijing reconsider its “disastrous crackdown”.

This alarmed senior figures like Cheung Kim-hung and Chan Pui-man, who saw Lai’s strategy as highly risky and voiced opposition. Yet Lai shot back, telling Chan the only way to handle Beijing was boldness, urging bravery at this “emergency” moment. This campaign was later pushed on social media like Facebook, Twitter, and the White House Petition platform.

When the NSL officially landed in June 2020, Lai showed zero signs of slowing down. He doubled down, launching “Live Chat with Jimmy Lai” livestreams featuring foreign politicians and anti-China figures. His senior staff reportedly feared this would cross the NSL line, but Lai just brushed aside their worries, growing even more fired up as he surged forward.

Desperate Measures Behind the Scenes

Apple Daily’s management knew they were stepping on thin ice. Chan Pui-man testified to advising Cheung Kim-hung about carefully choosing language to adhere to journalistic principles and even organised legal seminars to help staff avoid violations. The prosecution displayed a screenshot of chief editor Yang Qingqi’s phone showing a Signal group named the “NSL Contingency Committee,” made up of Cheung, Chan, and English edition chief editor Fung Wai-kwong. They’d switched from WhatsApp to Signal where messages would disappear automatically within hours — a clear sign of their panic.

Despite all this, Lai told his team not to be “overly afraid, but cautious,” pushing for more meetings with foreign writers. His subordinates were caught between fear and loyalty, trapped “on the vehicle” with no way out as their boss sped toward legal disaster.

Only one confidant acted decisively: Simon Siu-fu Lee, who messaged Lai just four hours after the NSL kicked in, saying he could no longer manage Lai’s Twitter. Mark Simon, Lai’s assistant, kept this quiet for fear it would trigger more resignations.

Lai’s protégé Simon Siu-fu Lee cut ties within four hours of the NSL’s start, escaping prosecution.

Lai’s protégé Simon Siu-fu Lee cut ties within four hours of the NSL’s start, escaping prosecution.

Lee’s swift escape prevented his arrest, unlike many other senior Next Digital executives swept up later. The lesson: sometimes, jumping ship quickly is your best shot at survival. The others, tragically, were dragged down, caught in the same downward spiral.

This is a textbook tale of reckless leadership driving a team over a cliff—Lai full speed ahead while his subordinates scrambled desperately to avoid falling too, with only one managing to get off in time. The rest paid the price for their boss’s brazen gamble.

 Lai Ting-yiu




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** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

As the Year of the Horse approaching, Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are bracing for a gut punch. The festive season brings no joy—only anxiety. Mid-February marks the deadline for the UK government's consultation on raising permanent residency thresholds, and the verdict on whether BNO holders get a pass is about to drop.

The Home Office floated immigration reforms that would keep the "5+1" rule intact—five years of residence before you can apply—but the bar just shot up, with higher English proficiency requirements and stable income. For many, these hurdles are insurmountable.

Mahmood's stonewalling to BNO holders' demands signals bad news. The February verdict looms.

Mahmood's stonewalling to BNO holders' demands signals bad news. The February verdict looms.

Hong Kong BNO holders fired off "five demands" to the authorities, pleading for relief. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's response was ice cold. Zero acknowledgment of their demands. Her dismissive tone signals one thing: exemptions for BNO holders look dead in the water.

If the final call goes all the way, thousands who waited five years will crash at the finish line. A return wave to Hong Kong is inevitable. The Hong Kong government needs to get ready.

The Dual Knockout Blow

The UK government didn't just raise the bar—it installed a double gate that slams shut on 60,000 people. First gate: English proficiency must hit B2 level, equivalent to A-Level, practically university standard. Second gate: annual income over the past three to five years must reach at least £12,570, with tax records to prove it.

Surveys by Hong Kong migrant organizations paint a grim picture: if these "dual requirements" become reality, 30% of BNO holders—roughly 60,000 people—will fail to qualify and get filtered out. No wonder panic is spreading.

While anxiety mounts, the UK government plays coy. Ambiguous statements. Equivocal attitudes. Nobody can read their hand. Now, with just one month until the announcement, BNO holders are reaching peak agitation. A group of Hong Kong voters in Mahmood's constituency drafted a joint letter, restating the "five demands" and requesting a face-to-face meeting to apply pressure.

Mahmood responded quickly—but only to say Hong Kong BNO holders could apply for permanent residency after five years. As for the "five demands"? Crickets. Instead, she reiterated that those granted permanent residency must meet three criteria: being "well-integrated," "economically self-sufficient," and "committed” to the communities they join.

Mahmood Goes Silent

One Hong Kong BNO holder who signed the petition decoded those three phrases: "integration" and "commitment" are code words for English proficiency and income levels. Translation: BNO holders applying for permanent residency must also clear these two hurdles.

These Hong Kong residents sent a follow-up letter to Mahmood, requesting a meeting to present their case in person. Her response? Radio silence. Phone calls to her constituency office go unanswered. She's clearly ducking any face-to-face encounter.

Mahmood is stonewalling, and nobody can do a thing about it. Frustrated BNO holders vent to yellow media outlets, angrily branding her "heartless." But here's the reality check: the Labour government's approval ratings are tanking. Reform UK is breathing down their necks on immigration. Immigration policy will err on the side of restriction, not relaxation. Naturally, they're inclined to treat BNO holders the same as everyone else. No special treatment. No "sentiment." The "five demands" might as well be whispers in the wind.

Two Paths Forward

Friends living in the UK lay out the scenario: if the UK government announces "no relaxation" next month, BNO holders who can't meet the requirements face two choices.

First option: return to Hong Kong and start over. After all, life in the UK hasn't been entirely rosy—living day after day in anxiety. "Returning home" might actually be a relief.

Second option: continue to "temporarily reside" in the UK on a BNO visa, becoming long-term temporary residents. But they'll remain in an unstable state, which won't be comfortable.

There's also a thornier complication: some BNO families migrated to the UK with their parents, and one spouse hasn't worked or earned any income for several years. If these family members don't meet the criteria for applying for permanent residency, it could trigger family separation or force the entire family to return to Hong Kong. They'll face an agonizing decision. Quite a mess.

No exemptions? Brace for the return wave.

No exemptions? Brace for the return wave.

My friend predicts that if the worst-case scenario materializes, a return wave is sure to come. For Hong Kong, there will be upsides and downsides. Either way, the government needs to get ready and figure out how to handle it.

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