BNO Dream for Sale? A Fugitive’s £4 Billion Pitch to a Broke Britain

Hong Kong people who relocated to the UK recently had a major scare when the Reform UK party proposed scrapping "permanent residency." It felt like being on a train and suddenly hearing the final station was cancelled, leaving their dream of settling in the UK shattered. Although party leader Nigel Farage later walked it back, clarifying BNO visa holders wouldn't be affected, the future of "permanent residency" remains shaky.
 
Now, a "yellow-camp" think tank has switched gears, dropping the moral arguments and instead "talking money." They claim that if the UK grants BNO holders permanent residency, Britain could rake in £4 billion (around HK$40 billion) in capital by 2029—a very shiny object to dangle in front of a struggling government.

A quick look reveals this think tank was set up by the wanted fugitive Dennis Kwok, with its advisory committee featuring other wanted figures like Kevin Yam and Joseph Lian. The agenda here isn't subtle. But whether a UK government already buckling under immense anti-immigration pressure will fall for this bait is another question entirely.
 
The Moral Card Has Expired

Until now, organizations lobbying for Hong Kong migrants in the UK have all sung the same tune, demanding the Labour government preserve the "5+1" pathway to permanent residency by playing the "moral responsibility" card. Despite the high-minded rhetoric, the government has turned a deaf ear. Why? Because it's caught in a pincer movement: politically, the anti-immigration wave is cresting, and economically, the government is practically bankrupt.
 
As the old saying goes, poverty dulls ambition; moral obligations are a luxury it can no longer afford.
 
The "yellow-camp" think tank, the China Strategic Risks Institute (CSRI), clearly gets it. Talking morals with the UK government is a dead end. So, it's changed its tack, presenting a cold, hard cost-benefit analysis: The nearly 170,000 Hong Kong people in the UK hold over HK$30 billion (about £3 billion) in their Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) accounts. But since the Hong Kong government doesn't recognize the BNO visa as a basis for permanent departure, they can't legally touch that money.

Fugitive Dennis Kwok's 'think tank' dangles a HK$40 billion carrot. But will a cash-strapped UK bite, or is it just a desperate ploy?

The pitch is simple: if the UK government grants them permanent residency, these accounts can be unfrozen. Combine that with other funds, and the total inflow could hit nearly £4 billion by 2029.

The think tank argues that once BNO holders in the UK get their hands on this cash, most of it will be transferred to Britain and plowed into the financial and property markets. For the UK, this represents a huge, tangible benefit that could give its economy a much-needed shot in the arm.

Who's Really Pulling the Strings?

So what’s the political game here? Before we get into that, let's look at what CSRI really is.
 
Records show that former Civic Party lawmaker Dennis Kwok bolted from Hong Kong in November 2020 and fled to Canada (he holds Canadian citizenship). By May 2023, he popped up in London, grandly announcing the launch of the "China Strategic Risks Institute" (CSRI) in the UK Parliament.
 
From day one, it had already declared its focus on the global impact of China's rising "totalitarianism"—its anti-China stance couldn't be more obvious. Its advisory committee includes other wanted individuals like Kevin Yam, now in Australia, and Joseph Lian, a former director of Stand News who is also a fugitive.
 
With a lineup like that, it's pretty clear what their real game is.

Launched in the UK Parliament, Dennis Kwok's outfit has 'anti-China' written all over it. A think tank in name, a political weapon in reality.

Furthermore, CSRI is cozy with the chaos-sowing group "Hong Kong Watch." This organization has been colluding with hawkish British politicians, ostensibly lobbying Parliament for the BNO "5+1" pathway and urging the government to unfreeze the MPF accounts of Hong Kong migrants. But the real goal is to use these migrants to build an anti-China base and pressure the Labour government to abandon its friendly policy towards China.
 
Looking at CSRI’s background, it’s obvious they’re just using the "think tank" label as a cover. In reality, they are an anti-China political organization aiming to destabilize Hong Kong. The political calculations behind their "objective research" are identical to those of "Hong Kong Watch."
 
A Desperate Gamble?

Trading in their moral high ground for a £4 billion business pitch might look clever, but it's far from certain that the government will bite.
 
First, the UK government's top priority is tackling the ferocious anti-immigration wave, which demands stricter, not looser, policies.
 
That £4 billion is merely a drop in the ocean, and a distant one at that. It won't solve the immediate crisis. To solve its current problems, Britain needs to improve economic and trade relations with China. It's not about to do anything that might antagonize Beijing at this critical stage.
 
This means the long, anxious wait for Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK will drag on, with their future still very much up in the air.

Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

As the Year of the Horse approaching, Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are bracing for a gut punch. The festive season brings no joy—only anxiety. Mid-February marks the deadline for the UK government's consultation on raising permanent residency thresholds, and the verdict on whether BNO holders get a pass is about to drop.

The Home Office floated immigration reforms that would keep the "5+1" rule intact—five years of residence before you can apply—but the bar just shot up, with higher English proficiency requirements and stable income. For many, these hurdles are insurmountable.

Mahmood's stonewalling to BNO holders' demands signals bad news. The February verdict looms.

Hong Kong BNO holders fired off "five demands" to the authorities, pleading for relief. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's response was ice cold. Zero acknowledgment of their demands. Her dismissive tone signals one thing: exemptions for BNO holders look dead in the water.

If the final call goes all the way, thousands who waited five years will crash at the finish line. A return wave to Hong Kong is inevitable. The Hong Kong government needs to get ready.

The Dual Knockout Blow

The UK government didn't just raise the bar—it installed a double gate that slams shut on 60,000 people. First gate: English proficiency must hit B2 level, equivalent to A-Level, practically university standard. Second gate: annual income over the past three to five years must reach at least £12,570, with tax records to prove it.

Surveys by Hong Kong migrant organizations paint a grim picture: if these "dual requirements" become reality, 30% of BNO holders—roughly 60,000 people—will fail to qualify and get filtered out. No wonder panic is spreading.

While anxiety mounts, the UK government plays coy. Ambiguous statements. Equivocal attitudes. Nobody can read their hand. Now, with just one month until the announcement, BNO holders are reaching peak agitation. A group of Hong Kong voters in Mahmood's constituency drafted a joint letter, restating the "five demands" and requesting a face-to-face meeting to apply pressure.

Mahmood responded quickly—but only to say Hong Kong BNO holders could apply for permanent residency after five years. As for the "five demands"? Crickets. Instead, she reiterated that those granted permanent residency must meet three criteria: being "well-integrated," "economically self-sufficient," and "committed” to the communities they join.

Mahmood Goes Silent

One Hong Kong BNO holder who signed the petition decoded those three phrases: "integration" and "commitment" are code words for English proficiency and income levels. Translation: BNO holders applying for permanent residency must also clear these two hurdles.

These Hong Kong residents sent a follow-up letter to Mahmood, requesting a meeting to present their case in person. Her response? Radio silence. Phone calls to her constituency office go unanswered. She's clearly ducking any face-to-face encounter.

Mahmood is stonewalling, and nobody can do a thing about it. Frustrated BNO holders vent to yellow media outlets, angrily branding her "heartless." But here's the reality check: the Labour government's approval ratings are tanking. Reform UK is breathing down their necks on immigration. Immigration policy will err on the side of restriction, not relaxation. Naturally, they're inclined to treat BNO holders the same as everyone else. No special treatment. No "sentiment." The "five demands" might as well be whispers in the wind.

Two Paths Forward

Friends living in the UK lay out the scenario: if the UK government announces "no relaxation" next month, BNO holders who can't meet the requirements face two choices.

First option: return to Hong Kong and start over. After all, life in the UK hasn't been entirely rosy—living day after day in anxiety. "Returning home" might actually be a relief.

Second option: continue to "temporarily reside" in the UK on a BNO visa, becoming long-term temporary residents. But they'll remain in an unstable state, which won't be comfortable.

There's also a thornier complication: some BNO families migrated to the UK with their parents, and one spouse hasn't worked or earned any income for several years. If these family members don't meet the criteria for applying for permanent residency, it could trigger family separation or force the entire family to return to Hong Kong. They'll face an agonizing decision. Quite a mess.

No exemptions? Brace for the return wave.

My friend predicts that if the worst-case scenario materializes, a return wave is sure to come. For Hong Kong, there will be upsides and downsides. Either way, the government needs to get ready and figure out how to handle it.