Singapore Outsmarts Carnegie’s Nathan Law Gambit

Singapore Dodges a US-Orchestrated Trap: Nathan Law's Failed Entry Exposed

Nathan Law is a fugitive wanted by the Hong Kong Police. His botched attempt to slip into Singapore, ending in a swift deportation, has grabbed headlines worldwide, with fresh details trickling out that make the whole thing even more intriguing. Independent journalist Kris Cheng spilled the beans that the invite came from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), a big-name American think tank. Their China Policy Center is parked right in Singapore, and the local partner for the event was the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University.

Nathan Law denied entry to Singapore – behind it all, America’s Carnegie think tank and a co-hosting Singapore institution.

The real head-scratcher here is why CEIP would roll out the red carpet for Law, fully aware he's a wanted fugitive on the run. Critics like Leung Chun-ying are calling it out as a blatant ploy to corner Singapore into a tough spot. And honestly, when you dig into the backgrounds of CEIP's top brass, it's hard not to raise an eyebrow at the potential ulterior motives.

This independent journalist pointed out that RSIS had posted online about CEIP visiting their campus on October 1 afternoon, strictly for invited guests only. Since Law got his invite from this think tank and the co-host was a respected Singaporean academic outfit, he initially scored a visa. But once he hit immigration, Singapore's higher-ups clocked the political minefield and slammed the door shut. The analysis is that with Singapore's fugitive handover deal with Hong Kong, letting him in could've sparked a massive international mess—sure, denying him draws attention too, but at least it keeps China and the Hong Kong SAR from blowing up.

Unmasking CEIP's Shady Ties

Even though the organizing group is now out in the open, the burning question remains: why invite Law knowing he's a notorious anti-China disruptor and wanted man? The journalist didn't crack that one, but I dug into CEIP's background—it's not some hardcore right-wing operation like the Heritage Foundation, leaning more centrist without obvious political ties. Because it's not extreme, it even collaborates with Chinese academics, running the Tsinghua-Carnegie Global Policy Center in Beijing. They also set up a China Policy Center, with new director Rick Waters based in Singapore.

CEIP’s past and present leaders have backgrounds tied to U.S. intelligence and diplomacy, raising suspicions about hidden motives.

That said, the past and present leaders at this think tank have some seriously eyebrow-raising resumes. Former chairman William Burns got tapped by President Biden in 2021 to head the CIA, and during his watch, he rolled out the "China Mission Center," openly ramping up recruitment of Mandarin-speaking spies to boost intel ops against China. It's clear from this that CEIP's stance on China is layered with complexities and some shadowy hidden agendas you can't quite pin down.

As for their China Policy Center in Singapore, the new director Rick Waters started in March this year. He used to be a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and led the newly formed "Office of China Coordination" by late 2022—from these creds, it's obvious his current role isn't as straightforward as it appears on the surface.

The Bigger Geopolitical Game

CEIP's decision to invite Law despite knowing full well his status feels like a deliberate move, and the real motives are still up for grabs—those leadership backgrounds offer some juicy leads to follow. Leung Chun-ying reckons the outfit was straight-up trying to sabotage Singapore by dragging it into this mess.

If Leung's take is spot on, it begs the question: why target Singapore like that? A friend in political circles speculated that if Law had made it in and joined the event, the forces behind him could spin it to paint Singapore as quietly backing anti-China troublemakers from Hong Kong.

But Singapore, with its long-standing reputation for pragmatism and diplomatic finesse, didn’t bite the bait. By shutting the door and sending Law back, the authority performed a political high-wire act—avoiding an eruption with Hong Kong and China while also signaling that Singapore won’t be manipulated into games orchestrated elsewhere.

What Say You?

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Grief remains raw a week after the "once‑in‑a‑century" Wang Fuk Court inferno. But while locals pray, overseas agitators plot. They are cynically hijacking the tragedy to rebrand their stalled anti-embassy campaign as a "mourning event."

Think of it as a "triplet" strategy: by bundling the vigil with BNO residency demands, these agitators aim to pump up turnout and force London’s hand. It is a desperate bid to build clout that risks channeling discontent right back to Hong Kong—and authorities need to be watching.

Calculated Pivot: UK agitators hijack the fire tragedy to pump life into their flagging anti-embassy march.

Opportunists Hijack Tragedy for Politics

Make no mistake: the overseas "yellow camp" is going all-out. Major player Hong Kong Watch has issued marching orders to so-called "Hong Kong Community Centres" in Los Angeles, Toronto, and Berlin. Don't let the neutral "community center" branding fool you. These are operational bases for hardline opposition supporters.

Saturday's Toronto event exposes the political underbelly. Alongside the usual protest regulars, you have heavy hitters like Hong Kong Watch Canada chair Aileen Calverley. The theme—"pursuing accountability"—screams politics, not prayer. Expect to see former entertainer Joseph Tay, who fled to Canada in 2020 and now sits on a National Security wanted list.

But the main event is in Britain. The group "Hongkongers in Britain" is staging a massive "memorial" in London, expecting hundreds. The ringleader is Simon Cheng, a former employee of the British consulate with a murky past who secured swift asylum in 2020. Now a fugitive on the police wanted list, he is mixing mourning with his separatist agenda.

Fugitive on the Attack: Simon Cheng weaponizes tomorrow's memorial to strike at the Hong Kong government.

Friday is just the warm-up act. The real play comes Saturday, when various BNO holder groups converge for a "large march." The mourning angle? That was a last-minute add-on. Their original, stated goals were purely political: protecting BNO settlement perks and killing China’s "super embassy" plan in London.

Shifting goalposts is their only constant. Previous marches relied on a motley crew of anti-China politicians and separatists to sour UK-China relations. But here is the cold reality: British intelligence greenlit the embassy, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks ready to approve it. With the opposition campaign hitting a dead end, turnout is nose-diving.

To arrest the decline, organizers are tapping into anxiety among Hong Kong BNO holders about tougher residency rules. By adding a "no change to settlement conditions" demand, they hope to drag more bodies into the street and pad their shrinking numbers.

Fading Relevance Desperate for Numbers

Then came the fire. It was a "once-in-a-century" disaster, and these groups wasted no time weaponizing the grief. By co-opting the tragedy, they aim to lure in regular Hong Kong people who just want to mourn, oblivious to the hardline agenda. It makes their "triplet" protest look far bigger than it actually is.

The playbook is predictable. Once the crowd gathers to mourn, organizers will pour political fuel on the fire, steering the anger toward the HKSAR Government. The goal is simple: export this manufactured outrage back to Hong Kong, triggering "brothers-in-arms" to reignite the ashes of the 2019 turmoil.

This isn't the first time they have built a platform on tragedy. It won't be the last. Authorities need to keep their eyes wide open.

Lai Ting-yiu