UK Tightens Residency Rules: What’s Next for Hong Kong BNO Holders?

The UK government has been shaking things up for Hong Kong BNO holders living there. Apart from the usual 10 + 1 years before applying for permanent residency (ILR – Indefinite Leave to Remain), the Reform UK party even proposed to abolish the “right of permanent residence”.

UK Home Secretary Mahmood’s BNO hand just got tougher. The “Squid Game” for Hong Kong BNO holders is on. At least the “5+1” stay rule survives… for now.

While there’s a hint that BNO holders might keep the current "5+1" rule, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood warns tougher hurdles are coming. If you’re seen as not contributing enough economically or socially, you’re probably out. A friend who’s living in the UK says the devil’s really in the details—which haven’t been made clear yet. But it’s clear that some BNO holders won’t make the cut. And those who supported riots, the so-called “siblings,” especially if they have criminal records from Hong Kong, face an uphill battle.

The Labour Party's public support has been tanking, in part because Reform UK is winning with a sharp anti-immigration stance. So, Home Secretary Mahmood is trying to score points with voters by promising stricter rules on permanent residency. She’s basically saying: even if you waited 10 years, you might still get kicked out if you don’t bring value or contribute to the UK economy and society.

Six Conditions to Make the Cut

So, how does the UK decide if you’re valuable enough? Mahmood lays down six conditions: You must have a job and income in the UK, pay National Insurance, don’t claim benefits, show intermediate English skills, clean police record, volunteer or donate to charity.

This means anyone lazy, low-tax-paying, welfare-dependent, or breaking the law gets shown the door during ILR screening.

The Real-Life ‘Squid Game’ for BNO Holders

This is basically a real-life Squid Game for BNO holders: pass these tests and you stay; fail and you’re sent packing. The uncertainty weighs heavily, and the Devil is in the details.

Take the “having a job and income in the UK” rule, for instance. The government hasn’t said what income you actually need or whether “social contribution” counts at all. If they go by the book and are rigid about it, low-income, low-tax-paying Hong Kong people are basically screwed—labeled as “not contributing enough” and kicked out. The UK government once floated a points-based system that scores salary, qualifications, and job type to decide who qualifies for permanent residency. If they bring that in full force, a lot of Hong Kong BNO holders could be out of luck.  

And what about the English bar? Will it, then, be raised from B1 to B2? If yes, some might fall short.

Most BNO holders have spotless police records, but those protest supporters—the “siblings” caught up in the 2019 Black Riots—are in real trouble. Any arrest or conviction from that period could easily sink their permanent residency chances. A friend in the UK told me that “good character” is the golden ticket for ILR approval, and a criminal record from Hong Kong even of political reasons would make things seriously grim. Some of these folks might try to switch tracks and seek refugee asylum, but the system’s clogged, with long delays and tough rejections becoming the norm.

Playing It Safe to Keep Dreams Alive

If “siblings” commit crimes after arriving in the UK, they immediately fail the no-criminal-record condition and lose ILR eligibility. They know this, which explains why many have been careful during recent protests—to avoid arrests that would crush their hopes of staying for good.

Clean record or bust. Protest supporters with 2019 political files risk getting booted.

On the bright side, the UK government hinted BNO holders might be excluded from the new “10+1” rule, keeping the current “5+1” residency requirement. Ukranians reportedly get the same treatment. No official confirmation yet, but silence indicates it might be true.

Still, Labour’s political battle with Reform UK means more “Devils” might sneak into the requirements of ILR application, tightening the screws to reduce the number of successful applicants and win back voter support. So even if five years remain the standard, getting permanent residency will get much harder.

The Bitter Endgame

Those filtered out will feel like they were so close to the finish line, only to be kicked off mid-journey. Naturally, that’s a bitter pill for anyone dreaming of a new life in the UK.

Home Secretary Mahmood just dropped the UK’s BNO hand: tougher permanent residency rules ahead. The devil’s still in the details, and the UK’s Hong Kong BNO holders are now in a real “Squid Game.” At least the “5+1” rule isn’t changing… yet.

One ILR prerequisite: a clean criminal record. Protest supporters with HK political files from 2019 face a high chance of being booted out.

Lai Ting-yiu

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Singapore Dodges a US-Orchestrated Trap: Nathan Law's Failed Entry Exposed

Nathan Law is a fugitive wanted by the Hong Kong Police. His botched attempt to slip into Singapore, ending in a swift deportation, has grabbed headlines worldwide, with fresh details trickling out that make the whole thing even more intriguing. Independent journalist Kris Cheng spilled the beans that the invite came from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), a big-name American think tank. Their China Policy Center is parked right in Singapore, and the local partner for the event was the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University.

Nathan Law denied entry to Singapore – behind it all, America’s Carnegie think tank and a co-hosting Singapore institution.

The real head-scratcher here is why CEIP would roll out the red carpet for Law, fully aware he's a wanted fugitive on the run. Critics like Leung Chun-ying are calling it out as a blatant ploy to corner Singapore into a tough spot. And honestly, when you dig into the backgrounds of CEIP's top brass, it's hard not to raise an eyebrow at the potential ulterior motives.

This independent journalist pointed out that RSIS had posted online about CEIP visiting their campus on October 1 afternoon, strictly for invited guests only. Since Law got his invite from this think tank and the co-host was a respected Singaporean academic outfit, he initially scored a visa. But once he hit immigration, Singapore's higher-ups clocked the political minefield and slammed the door shut. The analysis is that with Singapore's fugitive handover deal with Hong Kong, letting him in could've sparked a massive international mess—sure, denying him draws attention too, but at least it keeps China and the Hong Kong SAR from blowing up.

Unmasking CEIP's Shady Ties

Even though the organizing group is now out in the open, the burning question remains: why invite Law knowing he's a notorious anti-China disruptor and wanted man? The journalist didn't crack that one, but I dug into CEIP's background—it's not some hardcore right-wing operation like the Heritage Foundation, leaning more centrist without obvious political ties. Because it's not extreme, it even collaborates with Chinese academics, running the Tsinghua-Carnegie Global Policy Center in Beijing. They also set up a China Policy Center, with new director Rick Waters based in Singapore.

CEIP’s past and present leaders have backgrounds tied to U.S. intelligence and diplomacy, raising suspicions about hidden motives.

That said, the past and present leaders at this think tank have some seriously eyebrow-raising resumes. Former chairman William Burns got tapped by President Biden in 2021 to head the CIA, and during his watch, he rolled out the "China Mission Center," openly ramping up recruitment of Mandarin-speaking spies to boost intel ops against China. It's clear from this that CEIP's stance on China is layered with complexities and some shadowy hidden agendas you can't quite pin down.

As for their China Policy Center in Singapore, the new director Rick Waters started in March this year. He used to be a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and led the newly formed "Office of China Coordination" by late 2022—from these creds, it's obvious his current role isn't as straightforward as it appears on the surface.

The Bigger Geopolitical Game

CEIP's decision to invite Law despite knowing full well his status feels like a deliberate move, and the real motives are still up for grabs—those leadership backgrounds offer some juicy leads to follow. Leung Chun-ying reckons the outfit was straight-up trying to sabotage Singapore by dragging it into this mess.

If Leung's take is spot on, it begs the question: why target Singapore like that? A friend in political circles speculated that if Law had made it in and joined the event, the forces behind him could spin it to paint Singapore as quietly backing anti-China troublemakers from Hong Kong.

But Singapore, with its long-standing reputation for pragmatism and diplomatic finesse, didn’t bite the bait. By shutting the door and sending Law back, the authority performed a political high-wire act—avoiding an eruption with Hong Kong and China while also signaling that Singapore won’t be manipulated into games orchestrated elsewhere.