Trump's War on Foreign Students Is a Gift to Hong Kong

You'd think Donald Trump is a genius, always looking for ways to give the US an edge. But the reality is, many of his policies—both at home and abroad—have ended up being a massive boost for China. That's why he's earned the nickname "川建國" (Chuan Jianguo), or "Trump Builds China." And now, it seems Hong Kong is also cashing in on his moves, making "川建港" (Chuan Jiangang), or "Trump Builds Hong Kong," just as fitting.
 
His latest stunt? A crude crackdown on foreign students that has sent shockwaves through US universities. Fall enrollment has plummeted, with the number of Chinese students dropping by 12%. This has choked off a vital revenue stream for many institutions, forcing them to slash salaries and staff just to stay afloat.
 
Meanwhile, Hong Kong is doing the exact opposite. By throwing its doors wide open, it's attracting students from the mainland and beyond who are now thinking twice about the US. This isn't just a win for the universities' bank accounts; it's a shot in the arm for the entire economy. So, yes, we really have "Chuan Jiangang" to thank for this unexpected windfall.

Thanks, Trump: As the US slams its doors, mainland students are flocking to Hong Kong.

A Campaign of Control

Right after taking office, Trump launched an iron-fisted campaign to whip everyone into line, from the government and military to intelligence agencies and the judiciary. Universities quickly became a prime target.
 
After a drawn-out battle to bring Harvard to heel, he issued a memorandum last week called the "Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education" to nine top universities, including MIT.
 
The deal? Follow the government's "ideological guidelines" to control student thought and cap foreign undergraduate enrollment at 15%. In return, universities get to keep their federal funding and research grants—a blatant case of using cash to buy compliance.
 
Even before this 15% cap, US media reported that Trump was already using every trick in the book to keep foreign students out. We're talking delayed visas, restricted visa numbers, and intense scrutiny of applicants. Add to that the government's move to expel students who participated in protests, and it's no surprise that many who had their sights set on the US are now looking elsewhere.
 
The Numbers Don't Lie

The latest data from the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) paints a grim picture. August is usually the peak season for foreign students arriving in the US, but this year, only 313,000 entered on visas—a staggering 19% drop from last year. Asian students, who have long been the majority, saw the steepest decline of 24%, falling to just 191,000. Within that group, the number of Indian students plummeted by 44%, and Chinese students were down 12%.
 
For many American universities, international students are a financial lifeline. This sharp decline in enrollment has hit them hard and fast, plunging them into a financial crisis. Reuters spoke to 10 universities, and every single one reported a drop in foreign students, with one seeing a 19% decrease. With tuition income drying up, some schools have been forced to make drastic cuts just to survive.
 
Take DePaul University in Chicago, a private institution that saw 755 fewer foreign students this year, a 30% reduction. Facing a deficit, it had to slash spending, cut executive pay, lay off staff, and freeze hiring. It's a story playing out across the country. At least 35 institutions have had to lower their budgets, and the University of Southern California has cut 630 positions. It's a scene of widespread misery.
 
America's Loss, Hong Kong's Gain

Trump has his own twisted logic for this "expulsion" policy. He thinks that by reducing the number of foreign students, he's creating more spaces for America's own "excellent students," completely ignoring the economic fallout.
 
The truth is, foreign students are big business. It's predicted that the 30% to 40% drop in international students this fall will result in a $7 billion economic loss and 60,000 fewer jobs. And that doesn't even touch on the decline in foreign graduate students, which will cripple research in many fields and ultimately weaken America's economic strength.
 
While US universities are left high and dry by Trump, Hong Kong is reaping the rewards. In recent years, the Hong Kong government has gone in the opposite direction, boosting the proportion of non-local students in government-funded universities to 40% in the 2024-25 academic year, with 26,600 students currently enrolled. Next year, that figure will rise to 50%, opening the floodgates.
 
Friends in the education sector tell me that some mainland students, spooked by Trump's harsh policies, have scrapped their plans to study in the US and are coming to Hong Kong instead. As a result, applications from non-local students are surging at all universities. HKUST and PolyU each received over 20,000 applications, and even a private institution like Hang Seng University saw over 10,000. Once the university town in the Northern Metropolis is complete, the number of non-local students is set to skyrocket.

The Trump Effect: US universities face financial ruin as foreign students flee his crude "expulsion" tactics.

A Bright Future for Hong Kong

The more the US tightens its grip, the more Hong Kong's education industry thrives, and the economic benefits are already clear. A UBS report out today predicts that between 2029 and 2030, the number of non-local university students will hit 140,000. To tackle the housing shortage, the government is encouraging hotels to convert into student dorms, which is great news for hotel operators. The sustained demand for private rentals will also give the property market a healthy boost.
 
While US universities are being wrecked by Trump, shrouded in gloom, Hong Kong's institutions are looking at a bright future. For that, we really have to say a big thank you to "Chuan Jiangang."
  
Lai Ting-yiu

What Say You?

** 博客文章文責自負,不代表本公司立場 **

UK leadership churns faster than a revolving door. Six prime ministers in a decade — and the next one is already waiting in the wings.

The hot favorite is Andy Burnham, who has served as the Mayor of Greater Manchester for nine years. Known for his approachable, proactive, and upbeat image, he commands strong backing from a bloc of party MPs. His odds of moving into 10 Downing Street are extremely high.

Andy Burnham, UK PM frontrunner, met Chinese Consul General Tang Rui in Manchester this April, sending exiled agitators into a conspiratorial frenzy

Burnham’s governing style and policy preferences differ considerably from those of the recently resigned Keir Starmer. But the two men share one trait: a friendly stance toward China and an active push for Sino-British cooperation. Burnham met with Tang Rui, the Chinese Consul General in Manchester, just months ago — and by all accounts, the conversation went very well.

That should have been excellent news. Instead, UK-based exiled HK agitators erupted in fury. They claimed Beijing had foreseen Burnham's rise to the premiership and placed an "early bet." An obvious, baseless conspiracy theory. Its real purpose: to drum up momentum and rally anti-China forces to pressure the incoming prime minister. A friend living in the UK cut straight to it — Burnham's voter base is rock-solid. He couldn’t care less about these people.

The moment Burnham announced his candidacy yesterday, HK exiles began digging into his record. The yellow media outlet PULSE HK scoured the Chinese Consulate in Manchester's website and found that Consul General Tang Rui had met with Burnham on April 17. Tang noted that bilateral cooperation had yielded positive results and declared this year to be a big year for bilateral cooperation.

The consulate also issued an English press release stating that during the meeting, Burnham "fondly recalled" his past visits to China and emphasized that "Greater Manchester attaches great importance to developing relations with China".

PULSE HK then cited an exile-leaning commentator's post to "deconstruct" the meeting, piling on even more conspiracy theories. The post alleged that Beijing had long read Starmer's "political life" as nearing its end. So Beijing locked onto the rising Burnham and placed its bets early in a calculated "advanced deployment" of "united front" diplomacy.

My UK-based friend tells a very different story. The reality is the ones truly "full of schemes" are the agitators themselves. Seeing Burnham's imminent rise, they want to strike first — smearing him with a "pro-China" label before he even reaches Downing Street. Their likely next move is to join forces with anti-China hawks in Parliament, launching a pincer attack from both inside and out to pressure the new prime minister.

Make no mistake: these two forces have been attacking Starmer relentlessly for years. Every time Starmer and his cabinet officials visited China, they unleashed a barrage of criticism. They also stirred up trouble over China's new embassy plan in the UK, organizing multiple protests where hawkish politicians routinely showed up: flag-waving and shouting alongside "black-clad protesters." Once Burnham takes office, they are expected to run the exact same playbook, pressing him to abandon his China-friendly stance.

That playbook is unlikely to work on Burnham though. First, his relationship with China has remained warmly positive throughout his time as Manchester's mayor. On the evening of April 27 this year, the Hallé in Manchester hosted a grand event celebrating the 40th anniversary of the sister-city relationship between Manchester and Wuhan. Consul General Tang Rui and senior city officials all attended — the atmosphere thoroughly friendly.

Second, Burnham has clear practical calculations at work. He wants to secure Chinese investment for Manchester and Northern England: expanding trade, economic, and technological cooperation to inject momentum into the region's sluggish economy. His investment promotion agency has already put in considerable groundwork, aggressively pitching the "Invest in Manchester" initiative to China. Once he becomes prime minister, he will almost certainly run the same calculation. Why would he shoot himself in the foot just because some agitator’s conspiracy theories?

Third, Burnham has accumulated enormous public goodwill over many years — enough to earn him the title "King of the North." In his eyes, UK-based Hong Kong BNO holders are simply insignificant. He couldn't care less about them. Pro-exile media "exposés" about his China-friendly leanings will have nearly zero impact on his political standing.

Burnham's voter base is rock solid. Anti-China agitators? Not worth losing sleep

The economic wreckage placed before Burnham is his real, monumental challenge. He has only ever managed a city of a few million people. Whether he has the capability to heal a nation of 30 million remains a very open question.

UK media drew on Oxford political scientist Ben Ansell's sharp analogy — likening Starmer to a doctor who walks up to a gravely ill patient, shakes his head, and mutters that someone really ought to do something. Yet for two years, Starmer produced no miracle cure to heal Britain.

The public now places its hopes in Burnham. At the very least, under his watch, Manchester became the fastest-growing city in the UK. But after watching several successive prime ministers fail to prescribe the right medicine, voters hold more doubts than confidence about what he can actually deliver.

As one UK commentator put it plainly: no silver tongue or man-of-the-people act can paper over Britain's deep-rooted structural cracks.