Who Knew? Bitcoin Tanks on Trump’s Trade War

Trump recently had what can only be described as one of his classic outbursts, proclaiming he’d slap a whopping 100% tariff on Chinese goods. 

Wall Street instantly went into meltdown, and the cryptocurrency universe suffered what can only be called a “crypto disaster.” Bitcoin nosedived by 13% in just 24 hours, breaking through the $110,000 floor and wiping out a jaw-dropping $19 billion in positions. The carnage left countless investors licking their wounds—heard from every corner. 

But as Trump dialed back the rhetoric, Bitcoin bounced right back. Volatility is nothing new in these markets, but this time, something was off. Mere moments before Trump’s shock tariff announcement, two accounts began dumping massive short positions on Bitcoin—and even doubled down at the last second. After the crash, those mysterious traders walked away with $160 million (about HK$1.25 billion). 

The timing was scary-perfect, raising the obvious suspicion: Did they know what was coming? Naturally, eyes turned toward Trump’s family and inner circle—the usual suspects in any “insider trading” drama.

Trump drops a bombshell on China, Bitcoin crashes—somebody made a killing. Insider trading suspicions swirl.

Family Business or Financial Roulette

So what’s the truth here? That’s up to future evidence, but let’s face it: The Trump family has a rich history of benefitting from the “King’s” moves on the market. Whether this round’s mysterious short-seller is connected—well, everyone’s got theories.

The precision of this massive crypto short—timed right as Trump launched his tariff attack on China—reeks of “insider trading.” 

A half-hour before Trump’s 100% tariff announcement, a shadowy account started stacking huge shorts on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. The final bet? Placed exactly one minute before Trump’s public bombshell. That kind of play only makes sense if you’ve got live updates from the source—insiders who knew a crash was about to hit.

We all know what happened next—Bitcoin plummeted, smashing past $110,000 to a low of $105,900, a full 20% nosedive from its earlier $126,000 high. Ethereum got wrecked too, sinking to $3,380—down more than 20%. The whole market was an avalanche, catching 1.6 million investors totally off guard. Meanwhile, someone out there was celebrating. That shadowy account made off with a cool $160 million, over HK$1.25 billion, in just 24 hours. The biggest winner in this bloodbath.

Who could have predicted the carnage? To many, it looked almost like a psychic move—the mysterious trader knew exactly when Bitcoin would collapse. No wonder speculation kicked off: The people most likely to know about Trump’s sudden plans are none other than his family and top insiders. Their tentacles reach deep into crypto, so imagining these accounts are tied to them doesn’t sound crazy at all.

Trump’s family holds sway in crypto—was the market crash and rebound just another day in their playbook?

Old Habits Die Hard

Let’s not pretend this is groundless. Trump and family have a record for scooping up “policy news” windfalls. 

Back in April, before Trump announced a pause on reciprocal tariffs, US stock volumes mysteriously surged—clearly, someone was buying big. After the news, the market soared, and the early birds made billions. 

There were plenty of whispers then that Trump’s family, friends, and confidants may have known the plan before it went public. Proof is always tough, but Trump himself slipped up—at a White House sit-down with his financial buddy Charles Schwab, he openly said his “old friend” had pocketed $2.5 billion that day. Sure smells like privileged tips were flying and someone loaded up ahead of time.

In recent years, the Trump family has gone extra-hard on crypto investments. Last year, they set up “World Liberty Financial” (WLF), raising funds specifically to play the market. The patriarch himself has made a habit of pushing out policies to pump up cryptocurrencies, keeping everything tightly aligned with the family business. Surprise, surprise—their companies’ profits keep surging, and their pockets get fatter every single time.

This time was textbook. Trump threw out his hard tariff talk, smashed Bitcoin, then pivoted and talked nice, letting the price rebound above $110,000 while Ethereum got a 2% lift. Crash, rebound, and those “in the know” raked it in—again, and again. Record profits from every swing.

Are Trump’s family and friends behind it? Maybe we’ll never get all the answers, but for anyone watching closely, America’s “money politics” is looking uglier than ever.

What Say You?

** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

As the Year of the Horse approaching, Hong Kong BNO holders in the UK are bracing for a gut punch. The festive season brings no joy—only anxiety. Mid-February marks the deadline for the UK government's consultation on raising permanent residency thresholds, and the verdict on whether BNO holders get a pass is about to drop.

The Home Office floated immigration reforms that would keep the "5+1" rule intact—five years of residence before you can apply—but the bar just shot up, with higher English proficiency requirements and stable income. For many, these hurdles are insurmountable.

Mahmood's stonewalling to BNO holders' demands signals bad news. The February verdict looms.

Hong Kong BNO holders fired off "five demands" to the authorities, pleading for relief. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's response was ice cold. Zero acknowledgment of their demands. Her dismissive tone signals one thing: exemptions for BNO holders look dead in the water.

If the final call goes all the way, thousands who waited five years will crash at the finish line. A return wave to Hong Kong is inevitable. The Hong Kong government needs to get ready.

The Dual Knockout Blow

The UK government didn't just raise the bar—it installed a double gate that slams shut on 60,000 people. First gate: English proficiency must hit B2 level, equivalent to A-Level, practically university standard. Second gate: annual income over the past three to five years must reach at least £12,570, with tax records to prove it.

Surveys by Hong Kong migrant organizations paint a grim picture: if these "dual requirements" become reality, 30% of BNO holders—roughly 60,000 people—will fail to qualify and get filtered out. No wonder panic is spreading.

While anxiety mounts, the UK government plays coy. Ambiguous statements. Equivocal attitudes. Nobody can read their hand. Now, with just one month until the announcement, BNO holders are reaching peak agitation. A group of Hong Kong voters in Mahmood's constituency drafted a joint letter, restating the "five demands" and requesting a face-to-face meeting to apply pressure.

Mahmood responded quickly—but only to say Hong Kong BNO holders could apply for permanent residency after five years. As for the "five demands"? Crickets. Instead, she reiterated that those granted permanent residency must meet three criteria: being "well-integrated," "economically self-sufficient," and "committed” to the communities they join.

Mahmood Goes Silent

One Hong Kong BNO holder who signed the petition decoded those three phrases: "integration" and "commitment" are code words for English proficiency and income levels. Translation: BNO holders applying for permanent residency must also clear these two hurdles.

These Hong Kong residents sent a follow-up letter to Mahmood, requesting a meeting to present their case in person. Her response? Radio silence. Phone calls to her constituency office go unanswered. She's clearly ducking any face-to-face encounter.

Mahmood is stonewalling, and nobody can do a thing about it. Frustrated BNO holders vent to yellow media outlets, angrily branding her "heartless." But here's the reality check: the Labour government's approval ratings are tanking. Reform UK is breathing down their necks on immigration. Immigration policy will err on the side of restriction, not relaxation. Naturally, they're inclined to treat BNO holders the same as everyone else. No special treatment. No "sentiment." The "five demands" might as well be whispers in the wind.

Two Paths Forward

Friends living in the UK lay out the scenario: if the UK government announces "no relaxation" next month, BNO holders who can't meet the requirements face two choices.

First option: return to Hong Kong and start over. After all, life in the UK hasn't been entirely rosy—living day after day in anxiety. "Returning home" might actually be a relief.

Second option: continue to "temporarily reside" in the UK on a BNO visa, becoming long-term temporary residents. But they'll remain in an unstable state, which won't be comfortable.

There's also a thornier complication: some BNO families migrated to the UK with their parents, and one spouse hasn't worked or earned any income for several years. If these family members don't meet the criteria for applying for permanent residency, it could trigger family separation or force the entire family to return to Hong Kong. They'll face an agonizing decision. Quite a mess.

No exemptions? Brace for the return wave.

My friend predicts that if the worst-case scenario materializes, a return wave is sure to come. For Hong Kong, there will be upsides and downsides. Either way, the government needs to get ready and figure out how to handle it.