Hong Kong’s “Lifeboat Dream” Hits a Wall: Canada Leaves Thousands in 10-Year Limbo

Canada’s big “lifeboat” promise to Hong Kong people is sinking fast—and thousands are left stranded in limbo. Ottawa’s political whiplash means permanent residency now comes with a decade-long wait, trapping Hong Kong people and BNO holders alike in uncertainty. 

How did this mess unfold? The evidence shows that Canada’s humanitarian pledges quickly collide with politics, and it’s the Hong Kong applicants who end up suffering most.

Canada’s budget slashes permanent residents quotas again — “Lifeboat” Hong Kong people are expected to face a 10-year wait. Local HK groups urged the authority to speed up processing, but all pleas ignored.

Canada once boasted of being an immigrant haven under Trudeau, who threw open the doors to half a million newcomers each year. Predictably, social and economic headaches piled up—until Prime Minister Mark Carney took over the wheel and slammed the brakes. 

Today, a huge wave of Hong Kong people who moved to Canada find themselves stuck—trapped on the “lifeboat,” with no shoreline in sight. Complaints are everywhere. The big realization? Western governments love to preach about morals, but will flip their stance in a heartbeat if it suits their agenda. Still, let’s be blunt: this path was chosen freely. “Stuck on the boat” or not, blame rests with those who jumped aboard. 

Look back at June 2020. After the Hong Kong National Security Law came in, western countries, under the banner of supporting Hong Kong people, made loud noises to disrupt Hong Kong. The British government launched its BNO relocation scheme, while Canada, never wanting to fall behind, rolled out its own “Permanent Residence Pathways for Hong Kong Residents” in 2021—letting Hong Kong people live temporarily and promising them a future in Canada, all while boasting about “saving” them from hardship.

It all sounded so upstanding—a rescue mission on paper, with official speeches to match. But the cheers didn’t last. When Trudeau flung open the doors, Canada saw a flood of newcomers: temporary residents jumped from 1.4 million in 2022 to over 3 million now, and permanent residency ranks swelled. Serious social and economic problems followed. 

Suddenly, Ottawa reversed course. The government clamped down hard, tightening immigration rules. And while they were at it, they started dragging out “lifeboat” Hong Kong people’s permanent residency applications—queues now stretch forever, as if the aim was to squeeze out those who can’t endure. 

Prime Minister Carney slams the brakes on immigration, leaving “Lifeboat” applications. in limbo. Some may have no choice but to bail.

Crackdown, Cutbacks, and Cruel Waits

Here’s what the numbers say: Over 30,000 Hong Kong people are temporarily living in Canada under the Lifeboat Scheme, but there are already more than 20,000 permanent residency applications stuck in limbo. Ottawa insists this is due to a general reduction—next year, only 5,800 spots will be shared among Hong Kong people, Ukrainians, and Sudanese. By 2027 and 2028, that number drops to just 4,000. It’s bare-knuckle competition for too little porridge, as quotas shrink and waits drag on endlessly.

The Toronto Star didn’t mince words: due to government cutbacks and the need to compete with Ukrainians and others, a new applicant from Hong Kong is now staring at a ten-year wait for permanent residency.

Ottawa keeps repeating it’ll “speed up processing,” but the evidence is clear: delays keep growing, not shrinking, and it’s hard to see this as anything but deliberate. The most farcical twist? Officials reportedly told applicants to go back to Hong Kong and “wait patiently,” knowing most won’t return. 

Reality Check: Ottawa doesn’t care

For the Hong Kong people waiting, it’s a relentless grind. Many speak of crippling economic and mental stress, while Ottawa refuses to budge. The quotas for Hong Kong applicants? Not going up; preference is shown to Ukrainians instead. If applicants break and return home, that’s one less person for the officials to bother about—a cold calculation, but one that fits the facts.

At this rate, Hong Kong people in Canada face the same pain as BNO holders in the UK. Both groups are stuck waiting, clinging to the hope that policy will someday flip back. But that fantasy grows more distant by the day.

A sober take? This hope is wishful thinking. Both UK and Canadian governments are bowing to heavy populist pressure, and there’s no limit to how tight these policies might get. Instead of waiting for a miracle, Hong Kong people should be planning their next move now—because the West’s promises have proven to be nothing more than a moving target.

Lai Ting-yiu

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** The blog article is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the position of our company. **

Grief remains raw a week after the "once‑in‑a‑century" Wang Fuk Court inferno. But while locals pray, overseas agitators plot. They are cynically hijacking the tragedy to rebrand their stalled anti-embassy campaign as a "mourning event."

Think of it as a "triplet" strategy: by bundling the vigil with BNO residency demands, these agitators aim to pump up turnout and force London’s hand. It is a desperate bid to build clout that risks channeling discontent right back to Hong Kong—and authorities need to be watching.

Calculated Pivot: UK agitators hijack the fire tragedy to pump life into their flagging anti-embassy march.

Opportunists Hijack Tragedy for Politics

Make no mistake: the overseas "yellow camp" is going all-out. Major player Hong Kong Watch has issued marching orders to so-called "Hong Kong Community Centres" in Los Angeles, Toronto, and Berlin. Don't let the neutral "community center" branding fool you. These are operational bases for hardline opposition supporters.

Saturday's Toronto event exposes the political underbelly. Alongside the usual protest regulars, you have heavy hitters like Hong Kong Watch Canada chair Aileen Calverley. The theme—"pursuing accountability"—screams politics, not prayer. Expect to see former entertainer Joseph Tay, who fled to Canada in 2020 and now sits on a National Security wanted list.

But the main event is in Britain. The group "Hongkongers in Britain" is staging a massive "memorial" in London, expecting hundreds. The ringleader is Simon Cheng, a former employee of the British consulate with a murky past who secured swift asylum in 2020. Now a fugitive on the police wanted list, he is mixing mourning with his separatist agenda.

Fugitive on the Attack: Simon Cheng weaponizes tomorrow's memorial to strike at the Hong Kong government.

Friday is just the warm-up act. The real play comes Saturday, when various BNO holder groups converge for a "large march." The mourning angle? That was a last-minute add-on. Their original, stated goals were purely political: protecting BNO settlement perks and killing China’s "super embassy" plan in London.

Shifting goalposts is their only constant. Previous marches relied on a motley crew of anti-China politicians and separatists to sour UK-China relations. But here is the cold reality: British intelligence greenlit the embassy, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer looks ready to approve it. With the opposition campaign hitting a dead end, turnout is nose-diving.

To arrest the decline, organizers are tapping into anxiety among Hong Kong BNO holders about tougher residency rules. By adding a "no change to settlement conditions" demand, they hope to drag more bodies into the street and pad their shrinking numbers.

Fading Relevance Desperate for Numbers

Then came the fire. It was a "once-in-a-century" disaster, and these groups wasted no time weaponizing the grief. By co-opting the tragedy, they aim to lure in regular Hong Kong people who just want to mourn, oblivious to the hardline agenda. It makes their "triplet" protest look far bigger than it actually is.

The playbook is predictable. Once the crowd gathers to mourn, organizers will pour political fuel on the fire, steering the anger toward the HKSAR Government. The goal is simple: export this manufactured outrage back to Hong Kong, triggering "brothers-in-arms" to reignite the ashes of the 2019 turmoil.

This isn't the first time they have built a platform on tragedy. It won't be the last. Authorities need to keep their eyes wide open.

Lai Ting-yiu