《香港高Sir•高能•熱點詞》

2025.01.31

熱點詞：大部分美國人預計中國超越美國 美國民間認知轉變 東升西降是人心向背必然結果

美國卡內基國際和平基金會近日公布的一項該國民調顯示，多數美國人認為美國在全球的影響力正在衰退，近三分之二受訪者表示中國當前的影響力已與美國持平甚至超越。近四分之三的受訪者預計中國終將超越美國，成為全球最具影響力和實力的國家。其中47%的受訪者表示，中國已超越美國，或將在未來五年內實現這一跨越。民調報告還提及，與民調結果相同的是，許多外交政策專家也認為，在大多數國家的實力維度上，中國是唯一能與美國匹敵的競爭對手。

高SIR：當前，世界實力格局正經歷百年未有的深刻演變，「東升西降」已從歷史預判轉化為全球公認的現實。美國智庫卡內基國際和平基金會最新發布的全國性民調，猶如一面照妖鏡，清晰映照出美國社會尤其是民間基層，對中國認知的顛覆性轉變。大部分美國人預計中國將全面超越美國，這不僅是數據的量變，更是美國公眾對「美國例外論」幻滅後的集體覺醒。長期以來，華盛頓政客極力渲染「中國威脅論」，試圖通過地緣政治圍堵延續其霸權。然而，民調顯示這種冷戰思維在民間已逐漸失去市場。美國人視中國為「敵人」的比例顯著下降，證明中國堅持和平發展、合作共贏的外交理念，正在突破西方主流媒體的資訊封鎖，贏得美國民眾的理性看待。特別是超過一半人認可中國在科技領域的領先地位，這說明事實勝於雄辯，中國以實力贏得尊重。最令華盛頓精英不安的，是美國年輕一代的轉向。在18至29歲的受訪者中，絕大多數並不將「中國超越美國」視為災難。這種心態變化的底色，是年輕一代對國內政治亂局與經濟不景氣的深度失望。當前美國社會通脹居高不下、就業市場結構失衡，年輕人深受學貸與生活壓力的雙重夾擊，眼見政客們忙於黨同伐異、海外擴張，卻對國內民生問題束手無策。對於美國民眾而言，誰是「世界第一」已不再重要，重要的是誰能帶來穩定的生活。民調顯示較多的人認為中國實力領先不會讓生活變差，這反映出民眾已厭倦了為了維持虛假霸權而付出沉重的軍事與經濟代價。高SIR認為，美國民間認知的轉變證明：霸權主義不得人心，「東升西降」不僅是國力的位移，更是全球人心向背的必然結果。美國政府若繼續執迷於圍堵中國的迷夢，無視國內改革與民眾福祉，終將被歷史的大勢徹底拋棄。

Most Americans Expect China to Surpass the US: A Shift in US Public Perception Makes East's Rise and West's Decline an Inevitable Outcome of Popular Will

A recent national poll by the US Carnegie Endowment for International Peace shows most Americans believe US global influence is waning, with nearly two-thirds saying China’s current influence equals or even surpasses America’s. Close to three-quarters predict China will ultimately become the world’s most influential and powerful nation, and 47% hold that China has already overtaken the US or will do so within five years. The poll also notes that like the survey results, many foreign policy experts regard China as the only rival matching the US across most national strength dimensions.

The global power landscape is undergoing an unprecedented profound transformation, with the "rise of the East and decline of the West" evolving from a historical prediction into a universally recognized reality. The Carnegie Endowment’s poll vividly reflects a groundbreaking shift in US public perception of China, marking not just a quantitative change in data but a collective awakening from the illusion of "American exceptionalism". For long, US politicians have hyped the "China threat theory" to sustain hegemony through geopolitical containment, yet such Cold War thinking is losing traction among the public, with a sharp drop in the share of Americans viewing China as an "enemy". This testifies that China’s commitment to peaceful development and win-win cooperation is breaking through Western media’s information blockade, gaining rational recognition. Notably, over half acknowledge China’s leading position in technology, proving facts speak louder than words and China has earned respect through strength.

What unsettles US elites most is the shift among young Americans: an overwhelming majority of 18-29-year-olds do not see China’s rise as a disaster, a mindset rooted in their deep disappointment with domestic political chaos and economic stagnation. Plagued by high inflation, structural labor market imbalances, student loan debt and living pressures, young Americans watch politicians engage in partisan strife and overseas expansion while failing to address livelihood issues. For ordinary Americans, global supremacy matters less than a stable life, and many believe China’s leading strength will not worsen their lives, reflecting fatigue with the heavy military and economic costs of maintaining hollow hegemony.

The shift in US public perception proves hegemonism is unpopular. The rise of the East and decline of the West is not just a shift in national strength, but an inevitable outcome of global popular will. If the US government clings to containing China, ignoring domestic reform and people’s wellbeing, it will be ultimately left behind by historical trends.




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